評論
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Finance and economics
財經商業
The new head of the Federal Reserve
新任聯邦儲備局長
Dove ascendant
鴿派主政
Janet Yellen will stick to her predecessor's expansionary policies
詹尼特將會繼續推行前任擴張性經濟政策
FOR most of the past few years, monetary policy has urged the economy on while dysfunctional fiscal policy has held it back.
過去的幾年貨幣政策促進了美國經濟的發展而運行不正常的財政政策卻阻止其發展。
Barack Obama's decision to nominate Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as the Fed's chairman in February raises the odds that stimulative monetary policy will continue.
巴拉克·奧巴馬提名Janet Yellen 接過Ben Bernanke的衣缽于二月擔任聯邦儲備局主席一職，這將加大繼續推行刺激性的貨幣政策的優勢。
But disquiet about that stance is growing.
然而人們對于這一立場的擔憂不斷增長。
In addition to being the first woman to run the Fed, Ms Yellen is also the first acknowledged dove.
她不僅是首位入主聯邦儲備局的女性，而且是著名的鴿派人物。
Presidents once felt compelled to appoint monetary-policy hawks such as Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan to reassure markets that the Fed would not succumb to the political system's inflationary bias.
總統為情況所迫曾任命鷹派強硬支持貨幣政策的Paul Volcker和Alan Greenspan確保市場運行良好，避免聯邦儲備局遭受來自政治體系的通貨膨脹趨勢。
In appointing Ms Yellen Mr Obama has implicitly acknowledged how much the world, and the Fed's priorities, have changed.
通過任命Ms Yellen，奧巴馬含蓄地表明世界的轉變，聯邦儲備局重心的轉變。
Since 2008 America, like many other countries, has struggled with slack demand and high unemployment.
如許多其他國家一樣，自2008年以來，美國一直為疲軟的需求及較高的失業率所困擾。
Meanwhile, energy prices excluded, inflation has persistently fallen short of the Fed's 2% target.
與此同時，排除能源價格的影響，通貨膨脹率一直未能達到聯邦儲備局2%的目標。
Ms Yellen is not alone in believing that unemployment is a bigger problem than inflation.
并非Ms Yellen一人認為較之通貨膨脹失業率居高不下是更為嚴重的問題，
So do most of her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, through which the Fed sets interest rates.
她很多在聯邦公開市場政策委員會制定聯邦利率的同事也這么認為。
But she has felt that way longer and more strongly.
但她比他們更早更強烈地意識到這一點。
She pushed publicly last year to hold interest rates near zero for longer than the Fed then planned, to hasten the fall in unemployment, even if that caused inflation to rise briefly above 2%.
去年她公開推進利率趨零以促進就業降低失業率，使這一貨幣政策比聯邦計劃的時間要長，即便這一行動使通脹率高于2%。
She was the principal author of the Fed's current statement of long-term goals and operating principles, which stresses the equal importance of its twin statutory goals of full employment and low inflation.
她是此次聯邦現行長遠目標及管理原則的主要推行者，這一政策將促進就業和壓低通脹率這兩個法定目標置于同等重要的地位。
As vice-chairman, Ms Yellen helped Mr Bernanke nudge the FOMC towards its commitments to keep its benchmark interest rate at zero at least until unemployment has dropped to 6.5% and to keep buying $85 billion-worth of bonds a month with newly printed money until the labour market has improved substantially.
過去作為聯邦儲備局副主席，Ms Yellen協助Mr Bernanke推進聯邦公開市場政策委員會實踐其承諾，保持基準利率為零的狀態直至失業率至少降至6.5%，繼續印刷新錢購買850億美元的債券直至勞動力市場情況持續好轉。
These policies have not fuelled inflation, as hawks feared they might.
這些政策并沒有像鷹派預估的那樣加速通脹。
Indeed, Ms Yellen would probably welcome having to tighten due to inflationary pressure, because that would mean demand was buoyant.
的確，要是通脹壓力過大，Ms Yellen勢必會實施緊縮的貨幣政策，因為這意味著市場需求旺盛。
But hawks still worry that the Fed is distorting prices in financial markets, breeding excessive risk-taking and preventing investors in Treasury bonds from demanding fiscal discipline.
然而鷹派依然擔心聯邦儲備局打亂了金融市場的價格，導致過多的風險從而使投資者因為繁多的財政紀律放棄購買國庫券。
Such concerns are widespread among Republicans in the Senate.
參議院的共和黨人普遍擔心這一趨勢。
Several voted against her nomination to be vice-chairman in 2010.
2010年幾個議員在提名她為聯邦儲備局副主席時投了反對票。
She was not particularly modest about the role of monetary policy in the economy and I don't see any evidence that that's changed, one such Republican, Bob Corker ofTennessee, said this week.
一位來自田納西州的共和黨議員Bob Corker本周稱，對于貨幣政策在經濟中所扮演的角色，Yellen似乎不是很審慎，并且我并沒有看到她作出的改變。
With the support of the Senate's Democratic majority, Ms Yellen is almost certain to be confirmed.
因為得到參議院大多數民主黨議員的支持，Ms Yellen在聯邦儲備局的地位已經確立。
But with many Republicans opposed, she will probably get fewer than the 70 votes Mr Bernanke did for his second term in 2010, at the time the lowest on record for a Fed chairman.
但由于許多共和黨人反對，她的得票很可能會比Bernanke2010年連任時的70票更低，而這在當時創造了聯邦儲備局主席最低的得票率記錄。
Moreover, one of the seven seats on the Fed's board is vacant and another five may come up for grabs in the coming year, given expirations and the tug of other opportunities.
此外，聯邦董事會7個席位尚有一個空缺，在下一年換屆時，倘若還有其他有利機會將有5人競爭該席位。
The weight of opinion within the institution could change markedly as a result.
因此，聯邦儲備局內部觀點很可能會帶來巨大轉變。
Minutes of the Fed's last meeting, in September, show that it is already divided on QE.
聯邦儲備局9月份的會議記錄顯示，人們對量化寬松的貨幣政策已有分歧。
Many officials wanted to slow its pace.
很多官員想要放緩量化寬松的步伐。
But the view that the economy was not strong enough prevailed, and the Fed surprised the market by sticking to its current pace of bond-buying.
然而經濟狀況并不允許緊縮貨幣政策的觀點盛行，聯邦繼續推行現行證券交易的步伐出乎市場的預測。
Once in office, Ms Yellen is likely to pursue a gentle taper coupled with a firm commitment to keep interest rates at zero.
一旦就任，Yellen很可能會追求趨緩溫和的貨幣政策但是會堅持維持利率為零。
If the economy falters—an all-too-real possibility givenAmerica's budget mess—she may want to increase QE, but might struggle to persuade her colleagues.
倘若經濟衰退—美國混亂的經濟預算負主要責任—她可能會提高量化寬松的程度，但她要費力地說服她的同事們支持她。
The Fed's strength, she said in accepting the nomination, is its capacity to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite.
在接受任命的時候，她說聯邦儲備局的優勢在于它能夠讓不同的觀點相互辯論最后獲得統一。
Maintaining that trait may be her biggest challenge.
而發揚這種優良傳統或許是她面臨的最大挑戰。
