評論
打印
Finance and economics
財經(jīng)商業(yè)
The capital-freeze index
資金凍結(jié)指數(shù)
Stop signs
停止的跡象
Which emerging markets are most vulnerable to a freeze in capital inflows?
哪些新興市場最容易在資本流入時凍結(jié)？
THE risk of an abrupt end to capital inflows is now a worry for much of the emerging world.
資本流入突然結(jié)束的風險是現(xiàn)在大部分新興世界的心頭之患。
Some places are more vulnerable than others.
而且有些市場比其他更容易被凍結(jié)。
A large current-account gap implies lots of net borrowing from abroad, which could presage a credit crunch if funding dries up.
一個巨大的往來賬戶缺口意味著將從國外引進大量的凈借貸，這樣一旦資金枯竭就可能造成信貸緊縮。
A high level of short-term external debt relative to a government's stock of reserves means an economy lacks the means to tide borrowers through temporary difficulties.
一個短期外債相對于政府的庫存水平很高意味著缺乏經(jīng)濟手段來度過暫時的困難。
Rapid credit growth often signals overstretched firms and overvalued asset prices.
信貸的快速增長往往意味著公司的捉襟見肘和對資產(chǎn)價格的高估。
A more open financial system may boost growth in the long run, but it also makes it easy for capital to flood out fast.
一個更加開放的金融體系，從長遠來看可能促進經(jīng)濟增長，但同時也很容易讓資本涌入更快。
The Economist has combined these four factors into an index measuring the vulnerability of 26 emerging markets to a capital freeze.
《經(jīng)濟學人》用以上四個因素組成一個索引，用來測量資金凍結(jié)的26個新興市場的脆弱性。
We have used a simple traffic-light system to group the countries.
我們用一個簡單的交通燈系統(tǒng)給國家分組，
Green denotes economies, including reserve-rich oil states, that are at relatively little risk from a sudden stop.
綠色表示經(jīng)濟實體，包括儲量豐富的石油國家，資金突然停止的風險相對較小。
A current-account surplus, a vast hoard of reserves and a closed capital account mean that whatever troubles befallChina, they are unlikely to include a panicked flight of capital.
往來賬戶盈余，大量儲備囤積和資本賬戶封閉意味著無論任何麻煩降臨中國，都不太可能給他們造成資本恐慌。
Many of the emerging world's bigger economies lie in amber territory.
許多新興國家的更大的經(jīng)濟都依賴于琥珀領(lǐng)土。
India and Indonesia are already feeling the pressure.
印度和印尼已經(jīng)感受到了壓力，
Others, like Mexico, have fared well amid recent turmoil: the peso has been roughly flat over the past year.
其他的國家，像墨西哥在近期金融風暴期間就過度的很好：
But credit growth and high levels of financial openness are potential points of fragility.
比索與已經(jīng)過去的一年大致持平。但信貸增長和高層次的金融開放是潛在的脆弱點。
Malaysia and the Philippines, victims of the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, are in better shape now.
馬來西亞和菲律賓，20世紀90年代后期的亞洲金融危機的受害者，現(xiàn)在有了更好的形態(tài)。
Both run current-account surpluses and have built up a much larger reserve buffer relative to short-run external obligations.
兩者都有了往來賬戶盈余，并相對于短期外債已建立一個更大的儲備緩沖，
Yet credit growth has also been zesty.
而且信貸增長也一直很燦爛。
Countries in the red zone are most at risk.
在紅色區(qū)域是最危險的國家。
South Africa,Ukraine and a clutch of Latin American countries all look vulnerable, but Turkey tops the list.
南非，烏克蘭和拉美的很多國家都顯得很脆弱，但土耳其名列榜首。
It is running a current-account deficit of over 6% of GDP, its short-term external debt and debt payments amount to over 150% of available reserve assets, and since 2009 credit has grown faster there than it has in any other emerging market in the index.
它的往來賬戶的運行赤字超過GDP的6%，短期外債和債務(wù)款項可用的儲備資產(chǎn)超過150%，并且自2009年以來信貸增長速度比其在任意其他新興市場中都快。
The Turkish lira has already fallen by 13% against the dollar since the start of the year, but it may yet sink further.
今年年初以來，土耳其里拉兌換美元匯率已經(jīng)下跌了13%，而且它還可能進一步下沉。
