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Finance and Economics；Spanish banks；The long kiss goodnight；
A bank merger sheds fresh light on a sickly industry；
It may be Spain's most short-lived public company. Just a few months after its July debut on the Spanish stockmarket, Banca Cívica this week agreed to sell itself to CaixaBank, a larger rival, at an 11% discount to its market price. The “take-under” is a sharp reminder of Spain's property woes.
它可能是西班牙史上最短命的上市公司。就在本周，Banca Cívica銀行同意以低于市價11%的折扣把自己出售給其強勁的競爭對手Caixa銀行，此時距離它去年七月在在西班牙股票市場首次公開發(fā)行僅過去不過數(shù)月。Banca Cívica銀行的“賤賣”讓人們猛然想起了哀鴻遍野的西班牙地產(chǎn)市場。
Banca Cívica listed in the first place to meet capital targets set by the then Spanish government. Now it is one of the first casualties of rules set by the new government to get banks to set aside provisions and capital worth 50 billion Euro(66 billion Dollar) to cover losses on dud property loans. Faced with a capital and provisioning shortfall of 2 billion Euro, Banca Cívica accepted an all-share deal that valued it at a third of its book value. The combined entity will become Spain's largest bank by assets, with around 15% of the retail market.
前任西班牙政府制定的資本充足率目標對銀行業(yè)影響甚廣，首當其沖的便是Banca Cívica銀行。新屆政府成立后，又要求銀行業(yè)對不良房地產(chǎn)貸款計提價值500億歐元（660億美元）資本的壞賬準備金。由于資本不足，Banca Cívica銀行的壞賬準備金面臨著20億歐元的缺口，只得接受換股收購，以賬面價值三分之一的價格將自己出售。合并后的企業(yè)實體以資產(chǎn)來計將成為西班牙最大的銀行，占據(jù)大約15%的零售市場
The deal may not be good for Cívica's shareholders, but it is positive for the system as a whole that a stronger bank is using its excess capital to clean up a weaker one. As part of the deal, CaixaBank will write down 3.4 billion Euro of Banca Cívica's assets, 3 billion Euro of which relates to property loans and foreclosures—more than the amount Banca Cívica was officially supposed to set aside and a sign that the current provisioning targets might still be insufficient. CaixaBank can afford to take the hit. Its core capital will drop by 1.7 percentage points, yet it is still on track to meet the 9% core-capital mark demanded by European regulators by the summer.
這筆交易或許不符合Banca Cívica銀行股東們的利益，但對整個市場來說卻是個積極的信號，因為一家強大的銀行將用它多余的資本為另一家虛弱銀行清理不良貸款。作為交易的一部分，Caixa銀行會對Banca Cívica銀行的資產(chǎn)減記34億歐元，這當中有30億歐元與房地產(chǎn)貸款以及抵押品停止贖回有關——超過了之前Banca Cívica銀行官方估計的處理金額，這很可能預示著目前的壞賬準備金目標仍過低。Caixa銀行能夠承受這一資產(chǎn)減值的打擊，雖然它的核心資本充足率將因此下降1.7%，但仍滿足今年夏天歐洲央行規(guī)定的9%的的目標。
Capital elsewhere is scarce, however. Most other lenders lack CaixaBank's powerful balance-sheet: they are focused on meeting a March 31st deadline to present their plans to the Bank of Spain on how to meet the new provisioning requirements. And just like its predecessor, the government is trying to minimise the cost of bank rescues to the taxpayer and to the country's public finances, now firmly back in the bond-market spotlight. “Unfortunately, the capacity to recognise losses is extremely limited because, as things stand, there is no capital, private or public, for a convincing recapitalisation,” worries Tano Santos of Columbia University.
然而，對于其他銀行而言，資本仍很是稀缺。許多銀行都沒有Caixa銀行那樣強勁的資產(chǎn)負債表：它們正專注于在3月31日大限前向西班牙央行提交一份方案，說明自己如何實現(xiàn)新的準備金要求。和前任政府的做法相同，現(xiàn)任政府試圖將附加于納稅人和國家財政身上的的銀行救助成本最小化。政府力圖重返債券市場的做法使其備受關注。“不幸的是，西班牙確認資產(chǎn)損失的能力有限。目前看來，無論是私人資本還是政府資金都十分欠缺，這讓資本重組顯得不可信?！备鐐惐葋喆髮W的塔諾桑托斯擔憂地說道。
The government used money from an industry-backed deposit guarantee fund (FGD) to inject capital and guarantee risky assets during the sale of two nationalised banks, Banco CAM and Unnim. Three more nationalised lenders will soon be auctioned and will also need money to smooth the way. But the pot is now nearly empty. The FGD could ask for extraordinary contributions from banks or raise debt backed by future annual contributions. But bankers grumble that this is like trying to get a sick patient to cure himself.
政府在出售CAM和Unnim這兩家國有銀行的過程中，動用了銀行業(yè)發(fā)起成立的儲蓄擔?；穑‵GD）來為它們注入資本，并且為風險資產(chǎn)提供擔保。另外三家國有銀行很快也會被拍賣，這也需要錢來鋪路。但是儲蓄擔保基金現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)用的快見底了。FGD有兩條路可以走：或者要求各家銀行提供額外的資金；又或者以各銀行未來每年注資的形式作擔保來發(fā)行債券。但銀行家們紛紛抱怨，這種做法好是比讓病人自己搶救自己。
One source of concern is BFA Bankia, which listed the day before Banca Cívica last summer and faces a provisioning and capital shortfall of 5.1 billion Euro. After deducting provisions already taken in 2011, asset sales and the recent swap of preference shares in its parent group, BFA, for Bankia shares, the shortfall is closer to 2.7 billion Euro. Speculation that it might merge with CaixaBank was quashed by the latter's deal with Cívica, but rumours swirl about other mergers.
BFA Bankia現(xiàn)在尤其令人擔憂。這家銀行在去年夏天僅比Banca Cívica銀行早一天上市。它面臨的準備金和資本短缺達到了51億歐元。該銀行在2011年通過資產(chǎn)出售和向母公司互換優(yōu)先股的方式籌集了一部分準備金，但仍面臨著27億歐元的資金缺口。此前曾有傳言Caixa銀行將與BFA Bankia進行合并，盡管隨后發(fā)生的CaixaBank 與Cívica的合并交易使得謠言不攻自破，但有關其并購的各種傳聞依然甚囂塵上。
Bankia says it can make it on its own. The shortfall will be covered by a combination of profits, balance-sheet shrinkage and more asset sales and preference-share swaps. Rodrigo Rato, the chairman, downplayed the challenges in its 2011 results presentation. “Bankia doesn't represent a systemic problem,” he said. “Bankia is systemic, but it isn't a problem.”
Bankia銀行宣稱它完全能自力更生地籌集到準備金，短缺的資金將由未來盈利、收縮資產(chǎn)負債表以及出售資產(chǎn)和優(yōu)先股互換來彌補。Bankia銀行的董事局主席羅德里格拉托在2011年的業(yè)績發(fā)布會上輕描淡寫地談起面臨的挑戰(zhàn)?！癇ankia銀行不存在系統(tǒng)性問題”他說道?！癇ankia的確是一家系統(tǒng)性銀行，但它不是問題?！?/p>
All of which leaves the new government in a similar bind to the old one. Forcing a rapid clean-up of the sector risks soaking up scarce public money. But leaving the banks to muddle their way through has costs, too. Although the European Central Bank's three-year loan programme has eased funding pressures on Spanish banks, a credit crunch is under way. Listed Spanish banks shrank their loan books by 3.7% in 2011, according to estimates by Exane BNP Paribas, an investment firm which expects the trend to continue this year and next. That risks worsening the economic situation, and the losses that lenders face. Tightening the screws on provisions is an important step, but the government may yet need another reform plan.
所有這一切使得新政府陷入了一個與其前任相似的困境中。對銀行風險資產(chǎn)的快速清理會導致公眾資金的嚴重短缺。然而，如果放任銀行業(yè)稀里糊涂地進行自救，也有各種各樣的成本。盡管歐洲央行的三年期貸款項目已經(jīng)緩解了西班牙銀行的資金壓力，但是信貸緊縮已經(jīng)不可避免。根據(jù)法國巴黎銀行的的估計，在2011年，西班牙上市銀行的貸款發(fā)放收縮了3.7%。這家投行還預計，貸款緊縮趨勢在今明兩年仍會持續(xù)。信貸緊縮風險會進一步惡化經(jīng)濟環(huán)境，加劇銀行的損失。要求銀行提高準備金對于改革來說是關鍵一步，但是西班牙政府可能到了需要一個新的改革計劃的時候了。
