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經濟學人:德國宏觀審慎監管改革

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Finance and Economics;German macroprudential reforms;Beware Teutonic caution;

財經; 德國宏觀審慎監管改革;當心條頓的警示;

The Bundesbank should not exert its new clout too zealously;

德國央行不應如此熱情的展現其新的影響力;

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided a year ago to hold this week’s monetary-policy meeting in Barcelona, but the timing turned out to be perfect. Spain is in the crosshairs of the markets, not least because of budgetary overruns by regional governments such as Catalonia’s. And the contrasting economic fortunes of beaten-up Spain, where the jobless rate has reached 24%, and resilient Germany, where it is below 6%, exemplify the difficulty of finding the right monetary policy in a currency union of 17 members.

一年前,歐洲央行便以決定這周在巴塞羅那舉行貨幣政策會議,且時機證明是相當成熟。西班牙現是市場的交叉點,至少不是因為類似于加泰羅尼亞地方政府的預算超支。而與之形成鮮明對比的是遭受重創的西班牙經濟時運,其失業率已達24%,恢復力強的德國經濟也不到6%,也反映出在貨幣聯盟的十七個成員國中很難找到合適的貨幣政策。

The ECB’s meeting on May 3rd (after The Economist went to press) was not expected to change its monetary stance. Behind the scenes, however, there are acute tensions within its 23-strong governing council, made up of six board members and the heads of the 17 national central banks. In particular Jens Weidmann, the president of the powerful German Bundesbank, opposed the decision to cut interest rates to 1% in December, and frets about the adequacy of the collateral against which the ECB has lent so much money to banks in recent months.

在五月三日舉行的歐洲央行會議上仍沒有改變其貨幣立場。但是,在這種場景之下是23個強硬理事會之間的劍拔弩張,其由6個董事會成員組成并領導著17個國家中央銀行,特別是金斯魏德曼 其為資金雄厚的德國銀行行長,反對在今年十二月將利率下降到1%,并對歐洲央行在最近數月來借出大量資本的抵押條件的充足性表示擔憂。

Among other things Germany’s top central banker wants to avoid a home replay of the credit and property boom whose excesses have been so harmful in Spain. Loose monetary policy makes him nervous about the possibility of a property bubble in Germany. After a long period when house prices fell and then stagnated, they have picked up in the past couple of years (see chart). Homebuilding orders are up by a fifth on a year ago.

在其它的一些事情中,德國最高央行行長希望阻止住房的重復賒購和房地產的繁榮,這種過度的行為對西班牙的經濟造成嚴重的損害。寬松的貨幣政策也使得他對德國地產泡沫破滅的可能性倍感憂慮,在相當一段時期內當房價下跌且接連發生滯脹,他們不得不在過去幾年中重拾信心(見表)。建造房屋的訂單已比去年增長了20%。

Such anxiety looks premature: house-price rises represent a thawing in the property permafrost rather than a market on fire. But if Mr Weidmann is minded to take pre-emptive action, he will soon have the means to do so. At present the Bundesbank can preach about risks to financial stability but it cannot impose counter-measures such as setting higher capital requirements for banks or putting constraints on specific types of lending such as mortgages. The authority for implementing these steps lies with BaFin, Germany’s bank supervisor (which is assisted on the ground by Bundesbank staff).

這樣的焦慮看似是不必要的:房價的上漲代表著房地產的冷卻的一種緩和而不是火爆,如果魏德曼想采取先發制人的措施,他很快會有相應的對策。當前德國央行宣揚金融穩定的風險性,但其不能施加諸于為銀行設置更高的的資本要求,亦或是對類似于抵押貸款的特定類型設限的措施。聯邦金融監管局,德國銀行的監管機構(現場由德國央行員工協助)擁有實施這些措施的權力。

This will change under new proposals to set up a joint committee, which will have representatives from the finance ministry and BaFin, but which will give the Bundesbank the leading role and enable it to push through binding directives. The legislation won’t come into force until next year, but since it is designed to strengthen his hand, Mr Weidmann would probably be able to get his own way before then.

在建立聯合委員會這一新提議下,這一切將發生改變,聯合委員將會擁有從財政部和聯邦金融監管局的代表,并給與德國央行主導地位使具有法律效應的指示得以通過。明年這項立法將生效,而聯合委員會的設置之初是為了加強其行使權力的目的,魏德曼也許會在那之前達到他的目的。

The reform is part of a general move to add “macroprudential” instruments to the toolkit of central banks, allowing them to choke off credit excesses while monetary policy is set for the economy as a whole. If anything, Germany is treading less far down this path than some other countries—in Britain, for example, the Bank of England will call the shots through a powerful new Financial Policy Committee, which has already started work. Such powers should be particularly useful in the euro area, providing countries with a national lever to pull if their banks are getting too festive (though Spain’s pre-crisis policy of “dynamic provisioning”, designed to get local banks to set aside more provisions in the good times, cautions against investing too much hope in macroprudential tools).

這項改革是整體行動的冰山一角目的就為了是將宏觀審慎監管改革的方法加入到央行的整體體系中,允許他們阻止超額賒購并且貨幣政策的設置是為了整個經濟的需求,若有事發生,德國走這條路會比其它一些國家稍顯謹慎,例如在英國,英格蘭銀行會通過一個強大的新的金融政策委員會來解決事態,并已發揮效應。此類權力在歐洲地區尤為有用,如果他們的銀行盈利過多其會提供國家間的相互扶持(盡管西班牙的危機前動態供給政策的設計是讓當地銀行在時機恰當的時候將一些條條框框至于一旁,并謹慎將太多的希望置于宏觀審慎監管工具中)

But in the current climate there is also the danger that such regulations may be used in bigger economies to grab back power from the ECB. By reducing credit availability national central banks can contravene the euro zone’s wider monetary stance. Speaking in New York in late April Mr Weidmann said that if monetary policy becomes too expansionary for his home country, “Germany has to deal with this using other, national instruments.” If Mr Weidmann does use his new powers overzealously that could dash one of the few remaining hopes for the hard-hit peripheral economies: a strong recovery in the euro area, led by Germany.

但在當前這種環境下,這些條款在更大經濟體里的使用是為了從歐洲央行獲取權力,但這存在著一定的風險,通過減少住房賒銷的途徑,國家中央銀行違背歐元區更廣貨幣立場。四月末,魏德曼在紐約時說道:‘若貨幣政策在他的祖國擴張太快,德國那邊不得不采用其他的國家政策’。如果魏德曼過分使用他剛賦予的權力,這將會對難以影響到的外圍經濟所僅有的少數希望帶來沖擊:在歐元區一個強大的經濟將會在德國的帶領下復蘇。

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exemplify [ig'zemplifai]

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vt. 舉例證明,例示,是 ... 的榜樣

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acute [ə'kju:t]

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adj. 敏銳的,劇烈的

 
festive ['festiv]

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adj. 歡樂的,節日的,喜慶的

 
property ['prɔpəti]

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n. 財產,所有物,性質,地產,道具

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collateral [kə'lætərəl]

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adj. 并行的,附隨的,旁系的
n. 支親,

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choke [tʃəuk]

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vi. 窒息,阻塞
vt. (掐住或阻塞氣管)

 
dynamic [dai'næmik]

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adj. 動態的,動力的,有活力的
n. 動力

 
stance [stæns]

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n. 準備擊球姿勢,站姿,踏腳處,位置

 
bubble ['bʌbl]

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n. 氣泡,泡影
v. 起泡,冒泡

 
reform [ri'fɔ:m]

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v. 改革,改造,革新
n. 改革,改良

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