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Cotton exports
棉花出口
Knickers in a twist
印度頒布棉花禁令，世界市場反應強烈
India bans cotton exports—confusing everyone, including its government.
印度禁止棉花出口，讓所有人都很迷惑，政府自己也很不解。
WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised his desire for national self-sufficiency.
1918年甘地親自用印度的棉花紡織時，這代表著他渴望國家自給自足的心愿。
Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.
他認為出口給日本英國紡織品中太多都是通過不平等的條款出口的。
Almost a century on, India's cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.
近一個世紀以來，印度的棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)依然是處在世界產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中。
Thus a decision on March 5th by the country's commerce ministry to ban exports sent markets around the world into a tizz.
因此三月五日印度商務部禁止棉花出口的決定讓世界市場都迷惑不已。
Derivative prices leapt on New York's trading floors.
紐約證券交易市場的相關(guān)金融衍生產(chǎn)品價格飛漲。
Panicky Y-front makers the world over worried if their contracts were void.
全球Y型內(nèi)褲制造商陷入恐慌，擔心自己的條約無效。
Excited stockbrokers in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.
泰國的股票經(jīng)紀人十分興奮，告訴客戶們購買滌綸廠商的股票。
India, after all, is the world's second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.
不管怎么說，印度都是僅次于美國的第二大的棉花出口商。
The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitments were more than India could comfortably meet.
商務部似乎在擔心短期出口承諾難以兌現(xiàn)，
It feared a spike in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding.
害怕國內(nèi)棉花因囤積居奇而價格飆升。
This would hurt India's textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in the best financial health and is a huge employer.
這樣會損害以棉花為原材料的紡織業(yè)，而紡織業(yè)財政狀況不佳且提供大量就業(yè)。
India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.
2010年印度因為類似原因暫時停止棉花出口。
And there is a troubling backdrop, too.
這一政策的出臺也有難言的苦衷。
The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, with supply blips in some countries and high demand pushing global prices last year to their highest since the American civil war.
2011年國際棉花市場如同瘋了一般，去年一些國家的產(chǎn)量下降，而高需求等因素將全球價格推到了美國內(nèi)戰(zhàn)后的最高點。
After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profit warnings and saw their shares whacked.
原材料價格經(jīng)過多年下滑后，諸如蓋普一類的服裝公司宣布利潤預警，并且眼看著股價疲軟。
The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caught with their trousers down and lost money.
兩大貿(mào)易公司嘉能可和來寶集團的農(nóng)業(yè)分部也因此名利俱損。
Prices have collapsed since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery.
2011年六月份以來棉花價格崩潰，但是之后的價格過山車之后，每個人仍然都緊張不安。
China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makers from shocks.
中國囤積了大量棉花，可能會使織物生產(chǎn)商免于市場震蕩。
India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safety buffer for the Middle Kingdom. Hence the ban.
反過來，印度可能正擔心棉花產(chǎn)量會走向下滑，而為天朝創(chuàng)造一個緩沖區(qū)。因此禁止棉花出口。
A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in the medium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.
中期來說任何商品不論是棉花，洋蔥還是鐵礦石陷入價格飛漲，囤積居奇，禁止出口的惡性循環(huán)都不可行。
It erodes confidence in supply chains and may dent overall production.
這會侵蝕供應鏈各環(huán)節(jié)的信心，也可能會阻礙總體產(chǎn)量。
Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos if everyone copies it.
個人合理的行為，若是每個人都照樣做就會造成混亂。
No one expects a nation to act for the common good,
沒有人會期望一個國家會為共同的利益著想，
but it seems doubtful that India's ban is even in its own narrow interests.
但是似乎印度禁止出口僅僅出于自身狹窄利益是值得懷疑的。
Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.
試圖保持低價有利于紡織品生產(chǎn)商卻不利于棉農(nóng)。
India's agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.
印度的農(nóng)業(yè)部長說并沒有人向他咨詢過這項禁令的后果。
Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.
印度西部古吉拉特邦首席部長莫迪寫信給總理辛格，說這項禁令傷農(nóng)。
Mr Singh has promised an immediate review.
辛格承諾立刻修訂。
That seems likely to repeal the ban.
這似乎有可能會廢除這條禁令。
But there may be damage to India's reputation as a reliable supplier.
但是這有可能傷害印度作為一個可靠供應商的信譽。
As the news of the ban came out Australia's agriculture minister had just launched a report predicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2013.
當禁令的消息爆出時，澳大利亞農(nóng)業(yè)部長發(fā)布一份報告預測澳大利亞將在2012-2013年度將棉花出口加倍。
His view on India's ban?
他對于印度禁令的看法是什么？
It's an opportunity.
這是一個機會。
