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經濟學人:日本銀行援助歐洲

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Finance and Economics;Japanese banks in Asia; Lending a hand;

財經;亞洲日本銀行;伸出援手;

Japan's biggest banks help pick up the slack from retreating Europeans;

日本大型銀行撿起了歐洲人撂下的擔子;

There are two, potentially overlapping, ways in which Asia's export-driven economies could suffer from the euro crisis. One is from the slowdown in trade to Europe. The other is the drying up of finance, from trade credit to syndicated loans, extended by euro-zone banks. On neither score is Asia as vulnerable as it was after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, argued Iwan Azis of the Asian Development Bank, at The Economist's Bellwether conference in Tokyo on May 16th. One of the reasons is that Japan's mega-banks have lumbered off their home territory to pick up some of the slack left by the departing Europeans (see chart).

歐元危機可能給亞洲的出口導向型經濟帶來兩方面的影響(有可能是相互交叉的):一方面是對歐貿易額減少,另一方面是資金不足,這是歐元區銀行延長了貿易信貸和銀團貸款的期限導致的。5月16日,在東京舉辦的經濟學家領導人會談中,亞洲發展銀行的lwan Azis認為,盡管如此,亞洲經濟卻再也不會像2008年雷曼兄弟垮臺之后那般脆弱。其中一個原因是,日本的大型銀行逐漸跨越本國領域,撿起了打退堂鼓的歐洲人撂下的一些擔子。

This is good news not just for Asia's exporters. It also shows a rare stroke of boldness by Japan's big three, Mitsubishi UFJ Group (MUFG), Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho. After pulling back from lending to Asia following the 1998 financial crisis, and then suffering more than a decade of deleveraging by their deflation-sapped customers at home, they can almost smell the predicament of their European peers. Ken Takamiya of Nomura Securities says that in Australia, for instance, the mega-banks' lending has recently overtaken that of BNP Paribas and Société Générale, two retreating French banks. It is the same story elsewhere in Asia, he thinks.

這不僅僅對亞洲輸出國來說是好事,同時,也是日本銀行業三巨頭——三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)、三井住友銀行、瑞穗銀行少有的一次大膽出擊。自1998年金融危機之時三巨頭停止像亞洲放貸,之后又連續遭受十幾年通貨緊縮國民減債的困境,他們幾乎可以嗅到如今的歐洲同行的窘迫。野村證券的Ken takamiya表示,譬如在澳大利亞,日本大型銀行的貸款近期已經超過了呈下滑趨勢的兩家法國銀行——法國巴黎銀行和法國興業銀行。他認為,在亞洲其他地區也是如此。

Some of the banks trumpeted their ability to buy discarded European assets abroad, as well as making fresh loans in Asia, when they released reports on May 15th showing a sharp increase in profits last fiscal year. These profits largely reflected the sale of big helpings of Japanese government bonds, but foreign activities help. Mr Takamiya says returns on overseas assets at MUFG's biggest bank generate about 2.5%, versus less than 1.5% at home.

這些大型銀行中,有些在5月15日的報告中展示其在上一財政年度收益劇增,并吹噓自己購買廢棄歐洲資產及在亞洲發放新鮮貸款的能力。這些收益極大地反映出日本政府公債的重要作用,但外事活動也的確有所幫助。Takamiya先生指出,三菱集團最大的銀行擁有的海外資產產生的收益占總收益的2.5%,相比之下,國內資產的收益只有1.5%。
There are, however, some impediments to growing further in Asia, and especially to catching up with Western competitors such as HSBC and Citigroup. Firstly, although the mega-banks have huge deposits—MUFG has the second-biggest stash in the world—they lack matching-currency funding to make non-yen loans, and are thinking only gingerly about spreading branch networks across Asia, analysts say.
然而,日本大型銀行在亞洲的發展道路會遭遇一些阻礙,尤其是想要趕上其西方競爭對手(如匯豐銀行和花旗集團)。首先,據有關人士分析,雖然這些大型銀行有巨額的存款——MUFG儲蓄量為世界第二,但他們缺少貨幣配對基金來提供非日元貸款;而且對于在亞洲擴展分支網絡一事,他們表現得小心翼翼。

Secondly, their ambitions to be more innovative are modest for now. Rival bankers snort that Japan's lending is “pure balance-sheet”, meaning they make large syndicated and project-finance loans that are often long-term and low-margin. They lack the more sophisticated and lucrative cash-management, foreign-exchange and other services of Western peers.

其次,他們革新的雄心壯志仍舊是不溫不火。作為其對手的銀行業人士嗤之以鼻地表示,日本貸款是“純粹的資產負債表”,即他們雖然提供大量銀團貸款和項目融資貸款,卻經常是長期性且低利潤的。他們缺少了西方同行擁有的那些更為復雜、更能贏利的現金管理、外匯交易及其他服務。
Business at home is so lacklustre, however, that they may have little choice but to place bigger bets abroad. And even if prospects for growth in Japan did improve—GDP rose by 1% in the first quarter, beating expectations—the banks would still benefit from diversifying. So exposed are they to Japanese government bonds that Masaaki Shirakawa, the governor of the Bank of Japan, has said the big banks could suffer losses of up to ¥3.5 trillion ($43.5 billion) if yields rose by an admittedly lofty one percentage point. That would more than wipe out their combined profit last year.
但是,國內市場太過乏味,日本大型銀行不得不向國外市場押下更大的賭注。盡管日本國內經濟增長前景的確有所改善——第一季度的GDP上漲1%,超出預期;但多元化經營仍舊會給他們帶來諸多利益。日本政府公債對這些銀行的影響過大,日本銀行理事Masaaki Shirakawa表示,如果利率真的上漲了1%,這些大型銀行將會遭受價值3.5億日元的巨額損失。這比他們去年利潤的總和還要多。

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prospects

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n. 預期;前景;潛在顧客;遠景展望

 
rival ['raivəl]

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