評論
打印
Mining
采礦業
Geology or geography?
地質還是地理理論?
Miners should spread their risks across countries as well as minerals
礦業公司應用多國開采和多礦產開發以分散風險
THE past half-dozen years have been kind to miners.
過去的六年間，采礦企業的發展是順風順水。
China is gobbling up minerals as fast as they can dig them up.
中國消耗礦產的速度就跟采礦企業挖礦的速度一樣快。
Commodity prices have surged, dipping only temporarily after the financial crisis of 2008. The doldrums of the 1990s are a distant memory.
礦產品價格除了在2008年經濟危機爆發后短暫下挫外，一直在上漲。上世紀九十年代的礦產業低潮已成了遙遠的回憶。
Well, almost. The share prices of big mining firms have wobbled in recent weeks, as jitters about the global economy have intensified.
情形大抵如此。但最近幾周，大型采礦公司的股價如同當下加劇動蕩的全球經濟一樣，忽高忽低。
But profits are ballooning. On August 24th BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, unveiled record annual profits of $23.6 billion.
但采礦企業的利潤都在增長。8月24日，全球最大的采礦企業，必和必拓公布其年盈利額為236億美元。
Not long ago Rio Tinto, another Anglo-Australian giant, reported record profits for the first half of the year.
不久前，另一家英澳聯合采礦企業力拓公司也公布了本年度上半年的利潤報告。
The other big global miners—Vale, Xstrata and Anglo American—are raking in mammoth sums too.
Vale， Xstrata 和Anglo American，這三大全球采礦業巨頭也撈到了大筆利潤。
Investors should be celebrating.
投資者應該為此慶祝一番。
But Rio missed analysts'forecasts and investors were quick to question the company's strategy.
但力拓的實際利潤額與分析師給出的預測數字存有差異，投資者反應迅速，馬上對力拓公司的戰略提出了疑問。
Their main concern is that Rio earned nearly 80% of its profits from a single commodity: iron ore.
他們主要憂慮在于公司利潤中大約80%都來自于單一一項礦產品：鐵礦石。
That makes it vulnerable to price swings, and it is not alone.
一旦價格出現波動，公司就會直接受其影響，處于不利位置。而且把鐵礦石作為主要產品的采礦企業不止一家。
Vale, a Brazilian miner, gets a hefty 60% of its revenues from iron ore.
巴西采礦企業Vale高達60%的收入都來自鐵礦石。
And last year it sold most of its aluminium business, thus putting all its eggs in an iron basket.
去年，這家企業售出旗下大部分鋁業務。跟著就把賭注都放在了鐵礦石這個籃子里。
There are two theories as to how miners should spread their risks.
關于采礦企業如何規避風險，存有兩種理論。
One is that they should diversify by geology.
一是依托地質學原理，采用多種礦物開采。
That is, they should dig up lots of different minerals, just in case the price of one of them collapses.
既：為應對某一礦物質價格下滑的局面而采取多樣性開發。
That was the thinking behind the mega-merger that created BHP Billiton in 2001.
正是這種主導思想促成了2001年必和必拓公司并購。
It also explains why Xstrata and Anglo American operate so many different kinds of mines.
這也同樣能解釋為何Xstrata和Anglo American公司選用多種礦物質開采。
A rival theory holds that miners should worry more about geographical diversity than the geological sort.
與之大相徑庭的另一理論是礦產企業應更多地注意到地理帶來多樣性而不是地質類別。
Some analysts believe that because China's appetite for minerals is growing so fast—it already consumes around two-fifths of the world's output of industrial metals—prices can only go up.
中國對工業用金屬的消耗已經占其全球產量的約五分之二。因此，一些分析家認為中國對礦產需求的增長之快，導致礦產價格只會繼續上揚。
They talk of a “supercycle” of 20-25 years of high demand.
他們提出所謂“超旋回”理論，即：一種持續時間長達二十到二十五年的高需求。
The big threat now is not that prices will fall but that governments will seek to grab a greater share of miners'profits, predicts Grant Thornton, a consultancy.
正大聯合會計師事務所認為，當下采礦業所面臨的最大威脅不是礦業產品價格下降，而是多國政府都設法能在采礦企業所得的利潤中分得一杯羹。
So miners should spread their political risk by digging in multiple countries.
所以多家采礦企業采取多國開采的方法規避政治風險。
BHP is doing well by following the first theory. It wants to become a large supplier of potash, a base for fertilisers, and recently spent $12.1 billion on Petrohawk, an American shale-gas firm, to add to an energy business that already accounts for a fifth of its profits.
必和必拓采用第一種理論，公司也因此運轉良好。其希望在化肥的基礎材料，碳酸鉀上成為大型的供應商。此外還在最近花費121億美元購買美國一家頁巖燃氣公司Petrohawk。必和必拓能在能源產業上的利潤，已占其總利潤的五分之一，此舉用來增加其在能源商業上的實力。
But the second theory is gaining followers.
但持第二種理論的企業正在逐漸增多。
Several cash-strapped African governments are looking hungrily at miners'bulging moneybags.
一些財政緊張的非洲政府，眼睛放著藍光，緊盯著采礦企業鼓鼓的錢袋不放。
Tanzanian politicians are mulling a supertax on miners.
坦桑尼亞的政客們正考慮對各采礦企業征收附加稅。
Namibia and Zimbabwe have plans for the “indigenisation” of mining assets—ie, forcing miners to sell or hand them over to locals.
納米比亞和津巴布韋已有計劃，要將礦產資源“本土化”：即強迫采礦企業將出售或轉讓給當地人民。
Peru's new government pledged to levy a windfall tax, but has since agreed merely to negotiate a better deal for its treasury.
秘魯新上臺的政府曾保證將對采礦企業征收暴利稅，但最近同意，可以與采礦企業談判，但談判的前提必須是增加政府財政收入。
Trouble can arise in unexpected places: in 2010 Australia's government tried to impose a mining supertax.
本不認為會出麻煩的地方也出了事故。
A campaign by big miners forced a climbdown and cost the prime minister his job, but Australia will now slap a tax on iron ore and coal mining.
2010年，澳大利亞政府嘗試對采礦企業征收附加稅。多家采礦業巨頭聯合抵制，此事最終不了了之，導致總理引咎辭職。但現在澳大利亞政府還是會出手抬高鐵礦石和煤礦產業的稅收。
Anglo American illustrates the dangers of geographical concentration.
Anglo American公司給我們詮釋了地理集中論的危險。
The firm was originally South African, but moved its headquarters to London in 1999.
此公司在南非發家,與1999年將公司總部遷往倫敦。
It still relies on South African assets for 40% of its profits, however. Whenever a South African politician talks about nationalisation, its shares react as if whacked with a shovel.
然而，公司利潤的40%仍出自于其在南非的企業。每當一個南非政客跳出來對企業國有化品頭論足一番時，該公司的股價就會應聲而落。
One ruling-party firebrand talks of seizure without compensation.
某一執政黨的成員還煽風點火，大談特談什么占資產，不賠償。
His views will probably not prevail, but Anglo is investing heavily in Latin America and elsewhere, just in case.
這種觀點可能是個別人的想法，但為防不測，Anglo American公司正在拉丁美洲及其它地區大力投資。
Miners have so much cash that they are sure to splurge on further acquisitions.
采礦企業手握大筆現金，肯定會在進一步的兼并中投下巨資。
To guard against future adversity, they would be wise to seek both kinds of diversity.
為防患于未然，對之上提出的兩種理論采取兼而有之的策略不失為是明智之舉。
For political winds are as unpredictable as swings in commodity prices.
因為變化莫測的政治局勢就像搖擺不定的產品價格一樣，無法預測。
