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經濟學人:歐洲天然氣 管道壓力

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Business European gas Pipeline pressures

商業 歐洲天然氣 管道壓力
The battle over gas prices in Europe
歐洲的天然氣價格之戰
NO ONE likes getting a gas bill. But Europe's biggest utilities are especially upset over the sums they must pay gas producers, in particular Russia's state-backed giant, Gazprom.
沒人樂意收到天然氣賬單,而歐洲最大的天燃氣公司對于向天然氣供應商支付的賬單尤其感到沮喪,特別是俄國政府撐腰的巨頭俄羅斯天燃氣公司的賬單。
Some are trying to cut those costs; but with little in the way of leverage over producers their chances of success look slender.
有些燃氣公司想削減開支,但是幾乎沒有任何制衡供應商的手段,所以成功的希望渺茫。
Gas prices in continental Europe are mainly set by a decades-old system of long-term contracts, linked to the price of oil.
歐洲的天然氣定價是有幾十年歷史的長期合同方式,合同價格和石油掛鉤。
But in relatively liberalised Britain gas is largely traded at spot prices set by current supply and demand.
但是在市場相對自由的英國,天然氣以供需決定的市場價格進行交易。
This handed an advantage to some smaller European utilities with interconnections to the British spot market when, in 2008, gas prices suddenly fell.
在2008年天然氣價格突然下跌時,在英國現貨市場交易的小型歐洲天然氣公司便擁有優勢,而其規模更大的對手便受到損失。
Their bigger rivals meanwhile suffered. They were saddled with "take or pay" contracts that obliged them to buy fixed quantities of gas far above what they could sell and at prices way above those on the spot market.
他們簽署了一系列"照付不議"的合同,必須以大大高于現貨市場的價格購買固定數量的天然氣,而很大一部分根本就賣不出去。
The gap between spot and contract prices has not gone away.
現貨市場價格和合同價格的差異仍然存在。
German firms, which are especially hostage to Russian pipelines, are at a big disadvantage.
德國公司受到俄國天燃氣管道牽制尤為嚴重,所處地位非常不利。
Yet both Russia and Norway, which supply almost half of Europe's gas, have shown some flexibility towards their complaining customers.
但是供應歐洲將近一半天然氣的俄國和挪威對于滿腹牢騷的客戶顯示了一定的靈活性。
By the end of 2009 European gas buyers were begging for relief, with oil-indexed gas then 50% pricier than spot gas.
2009年底,和油價掛鉤的天然氣價格比現貨市場高出50%,歐洲天然氣買家紛紛請求供應商網開一面。
In response, Norway's Statoil allowed an element of spot pricing (around 25% of oil-indexed contracts) for three years.
挪威國家石油公司允許在未來三年內部分采用現貨價格(約占油價掛鉤合同的25%左右)。
Gazprom responded with a less generous 15-20% allowance.
俄羅斯天然氣公司允許的比例更低一些,為15%至20%。
Since then the Russian firm has been the staunchest defender of oil indexation (especially as the oil price has soared).
自此以后,俄羅斯天然氣公司一直力挺掛鉤油價(特別是因為油價飆升)。
And squeezed utilities are again trying to make it change its mind.
被壓迫的天燃氣公司則再次嘗試讓它改變主意。
Yet negotiations over new gas contracts have foundered.
但是簽署新天然氣合約的談判失敗了。
E.ON is taking Gazprom to arbitration.
德國意昂集團將俄羅斯天然氣公司上訴至仲裁機構。
RWE, which favours a complete shift to spot prices, has apparently followed suit.
贊成完全采用現貨價格的德國萊茵集團也效仿這一做法。
France's GDF is also considering arbitration.
法國天然氣蘇伊士集團也在考慮選擇仲裁。
But the process could take years and the Europeans may not win.
但是這一過程可能耗費多年,歐洲公司不一定會成為贏家。
Meanwhile Gazprom is doing what it can to cement oil indexation by increasing its grip on European power markets.
同時俄羅斯天然氣公司正通過各種手段加強對歐洲電力市場的掌控以鞏固油價掛鉤體系。
At the beginning of October the Russian firm said it was interested in buying power companies in Britain, Germany and across Europe.
10月初,俄羅斯天然氣公司表示有意收購英國、德國和歐洲其他國家的電力公司。
This would reinforce its ability to set gas prices on its terms.
這將加強其按自己開出的條件定價的能力。
Troubles at RWE, Germany's second-biggest electricity producer, have also played into Gazprom's hand.
德國第二大電力公司萊茵集團的重重問題也為俄羅斯天然氣公司助了一臂之力。
RWE is burdened by poor acquisitions, a new nuclear-fuel tax and Germany's decision to abandon nuclear power (which constitutes 20% of RWE's generating capacity) by 2022.
失敗的收購項目、新增的核能稅和德國政府將于2022年徹底放棄核能的計劃(核能約占萊茵集團發電量的20%),使萊茵集團背負沉重包袱。
On October 6th it said it would continue negotiations begun in July with Gazprom over a possible joint venture to generate electricity from gas and coal.
10月6日,該集團宣布將恢復與俄羅斯天然氣公司于7月開始的談判,討論建立利用油氣發電的合資企業。
In return for going into business with the Russian gas giant, RWE would likely get cheaper gas, but still on the basis of oil indexation.
作為和俄羅斯巨頭合作的回報,萊茵集團可能會以較低價格獲得天然氣,但仍然會和油價掛鉤。
A deal between Gazprom and RWE could have big consequences for European energy policy.
俄羅斯天然氣公司和萊茵集團如果達成協議將會對歐洲能源政策造成巨大影響。
To reduce reliance on Russia, plans are afoot to run a pipeline from Central Asia.
為了減少對俄羅斯的依賴,歐洲正計劃建設通往中亞的天然氣管道,即納布科管道。
And the main consortium partner in the EU's preferred proposal, known as Nabucco, is RWE.
建設這一項目的公司聯盟中一個重要的成員就是萊茵集團。
Yet doubts persist as to how this would be financed (particularly given RWE's parlous state) and indeed where the gas to fill such a large pipeline would be found.
但是這一項目如何融資的問題一直沒有解決(特別是考慮到萊茵集團比較靠不住),而且到哪里找到這么多的天然氣填滿這一巨大的管道也是未知數。
Meanwhile, another proposed pipeline along Europe's "southern corridor", called South Stream, which would run from Russia to Western Europe, subsidised by the Kremlin, looks set to go ahead—making Europe even more dependent on the Bear.
另一方面,計劃延歐洲"南部走廊"建成的、連接俄國和西歐的南溪天然氣管道項目似乎毫無疑問會上馬,這將使歐洲更加依賴俄羅斯。

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