China’s rulers comfortable with slowing of economy

　　For more than a decade, Chinese growth of at least 8 per cent ayear has been the overriding imperative for policy makers inBeijing.
10多年來，中國每年至少達(dá)到8%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率一直是北京的政策制定者的首要目標(biāo)。

　　The prospect of it falling lower filled them with dread because it was believed to be the level belowwhich mass unemployment would spark uncontrollable social unrest and even the possibleoverthrow of the Communist party.
低于這個(gè)增幅的可能性讓他們發(fā)愁，因?yàn)楦鞣较嘈牛艚?jīng)濟(jì)增長達(dá)不到8%，大規(guī)模失業(yè)將引發(fā)無法控制的社會(huì)不安定，甚至可能導(dǎo)致共產(chǎn)黨被推翻。

　　Particularly in the midst of the financial crisis, when Beijing launched a massive stimulus program torevive its plummeting economy, the mantra among Chinese officials of all ranks was “bao ba” or “ensure 8 [per cent growth].”
尤其是在金融危機(jī)期間，北京方面出臺(tái)一個(gè)大規(guī)模刺激方案以求重振不斷下滑的經(jīng)濟(jì)，當(dāng)時(shí)中國各級(jí)官員的口號(hào)都是“保八”。

　　But this year, China will undershoot 8 per cent growth for the first time since 1999, when theeconomy grew by an annual rate of 7.6 per cent.
但在今年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將在1999年以來首次低于8%。1999年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長7.6%。

　　If gross domestic product grows slower than 7.6 per cent for the full year, it will be the weakestshowing for the Chinese economy since 1990.
如果今年中國全年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長低于7.6%，那將是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)自1990年以來的最疲弱增長。

　　That is a distinct possibility, given that GDP growth in the first three quarters grew by just 7.7 percent, compared with 9.3 per cent for the whole of 2011.
這是一個(gè)明顯的可能性，因?yàn)榍?個(gè)季度GDP增長僅達(dá)到7.7%，與2011年全年9.3%的增幅形成對(duì)比。

　　But something has definitely changed in Beijing, where far from panicking and doing everythingthey can to pump it back up, China’s rulers seem pretty comfortable with their new sub-8 per centworld.
但北京在某些地方肯定發(fā)生了變化——中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層似乎對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長低于8%的新現(xiàn)實(shí)相當(dāng)自在，而沒有在恐慌之下采取一切措施重振增長。

　　The first and most important reason for their insouciance is that there have been no widespreadlayoffs even as the economy has decelerated for seven consecutive quarters, falling to 7.4 percent annual growth in the third quarter.
他們之所以若無其事，第一個(gè)也是最重要的原因是，迄今沒有出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模裁員，即便中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長已經(jīng)連續(xù)7個(gè)季度放緩，第三季度的同比增幅降至7.4%。

　　According to figures released yesterday, more than 10m jobs were created in China in the first ninemonths of the year and the number of rural migrants working in the cities increased by 3 per centfrom the same period a year earlier to 169m.
根據(jù)昨日發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，今年前9個(gè)月，中國創(chuàng)造了逾1000萬就業(yè)崗位，在城市工作的農(nóng)民工人數(shù)同比增長3%，達(dá)到1.69億。

　　Factories making iPhones in central China complain of terrible labor shortages and urbanhouseholds saw real wage growth of 9.8 per cent in the first three quarters, according to officialfigures.
在中國中部，承制iPhone的工廠抱怨勞動(dòng)力短缺情況嚴(yán)重，同時(shí)官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年前3個(gè)季度城市家庭實(shí)際工資上漲9.8%。

　　Powerful demographic forces are largely responsible. Slowing growth in China’s labor force thanksto the country’s one-child policy means that the government is under less pressure to promotebreakneck growth to create millions more jobs.
這在很大程度上可以歸因于強(qiáng)大的人口結(jié)構(gòu)力量。中國一胎化政策造成勞動(dòng)力人數(shù)增長放緩，這意味著在保持迅猛增長以創(chuàng)造數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的就業(yè)方面，政府的壓力有所減輕。

　　Another reason for the lack of official angst is the fact that a gradual slowdown is exactly whatpolicy makers have been trying to engineer since the beginning of 2011.
官方不感到焦慮的另一個(gè)原因是，逐漸減速正是政策制定者從2011年初開始試圖設(shè)計(jì)的局面。

　　At the start of this year, Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, set an annual target of 7.5 per centexpansion, the first time the objective had been set below 8 per cent in years.
今年初，中國總理溫家寶設(shè)定了全年增長7.5%的目標(biāo)，這是多年來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)首次被定在8%的下方。

　　At the time, nobody took that target seriously because Mr Wen had been predicting 8 per cent foryears and every year growth came in far above that, hitting a peak of 14.2 per cent in 2007. Mostanalysts and economists expected Beijing to blink, as it has many times before, when growthdropped below the cherished 8 per cent level this year, but instead the government has shownremarkable resolve.
當(dāng)時(shí)沒有人把這個(gè)目標(biāo)當(dāng)一回事，因?yàn)橥隃丶覍毮昴觐A(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長8%，而每一年實(shí)際增幅均遠(yuǎn)高于此，尤其是在2007年達(dá)到14.2%的峰值。多數(shù)分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾預(yù)期，就像以往多次發(fā)生的情況那樣，北京方面在今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長低于官方看重的8%的水平時(shí)將會(huì)沉不住氣，但實(shí)際發(fā)生的情況是，中國政府展現(xiàn)了值得稱道的決心。

　　This has been particularly obvious in the government’s refusal to lift strict curbs on a real estateboom.
這一點(diǎn)在政府拒絕放松旨在冷卻樓市的嚴(yán)格調(diào)控措施上尤其明顯。

　　The meteoric rise in housing prices has stopped and the real estate sector is hurting.
房價(jià)扶搖直上的漲勢已經(jīng)停止，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)正經(jīng)歷痛苦。

　　The domestic real estate boom has been a key driver of the Chinese economy, as well as theeconomies of large commodities exporters around the world, for much of the past decade.
在過去10年的大部分時(shí)期，國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)繁榮是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至世界各地大宗商品出口大國經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)鍵推動(dòng)因素之一。

　　But Beijing now really seems to be trying to reduce its reliance on real estate and infrastructureinvestment and promote consumption and services in their place.
但是北京方面現(xiàn)在似乎真的在努力減輕中國經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)和基建投資的依賴，同時(shí)大力推動(dòng)消費(fèi)和服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展作為替代。

　　This is good news for the long term sustainability of Chinese growth and it is also probably goodnews for most Chinese people, who should see faster income growth (and cheaper housing) as aresult.
這對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的長期可持續(xù)性而言是個(gè)好消息，對(duì)多數(shù)中國人來說也很可能是個(gè)好消息，因?yàn)檫@有望帶來更快的收入增長（以及比較廉價(jià)的住房）。

　　But it is worse news for global commodity exporters and for Chinese and foreign companies thathave invested here on the basis of growth being eternally higher than the magic 8 per centnumber.
但是，對(duì)于全球大宗商品出口者，對(duì)于假定中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將永遠(yuǎn)保持在神奇的8%上方、并據(jù)此在華投資的中外企業(yè)來說，這是壞消息。