Money data raise hopes for China revival

　　Predictions of the Chinese economy’s imminent recovery haveproved overly optimistic so far this year but stabilizing inflationand strong money growth signal that the slowdown might benearing an end.
今年迄今對中國經濟即將復蘇的預測都證明過于樂觀，但通脹企穩和貨幣投放量大幅增加顯示，放緩可能已接近尾聲。

　　Chinese consumer price inflation dipped to 1.9 per cent in September from 2 per cent in August, showing the government has room to ease monetary policy.
今年9月，中國居民消費價格指數(CPI)由8月的2%降至1.9%，這表明中國政府還有放松貨幣政策的空間。

　　At the weekend, China reported that in September exports rose 9.9 per cent, a stronger numberthan expected. While few analysts believe such strength will be sustainable if the European and USeconomies continue to struggle, the outlook is not as grim as initially feared.
上周末中國報告9月份出口同比增長9.9%，強于預期。盡管幾乎沒有分析師相信，如果歐美經濟繼續掙扎，這樣的出口強勁程度能夠持續下去，但中國增長前景已不像最初擔心的那么嚴峻。

　　“We have become more confident that the economy is bottoming out and will pick up in themonths ahead,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura.
野村證券(Nomura)經濟學家張智威表示：“我們愈發相信，中國經濟正走出谷底，未來數月內將會轉好。”

　　In third-quarter economic data due on Thursday China’s seventh consecutive quarterlyslowdown is expected. Underlining the weakness, the World Bank last week downgraded itsforecast for China’s full-year growth to 7.7 per cent – its lowest in more than a decade.
定于周四發布的第三季度經濟數據，可能證實中國連續第七個季度增長放緩。突顯這種弱勢的動態之一是，世界銀行(World Bank)上周將中國今年全年增長預期下調至7.7%，這是10多年來的最低值。

　　Given this background and the government’s reluctance to unleash a large fiscal stimulus, it mightseem foolhardy to predict an upturn before the end of the year. But several analysts are startingto do just that.
鑒于這樣的背景，加上中國政府不愿出臺大規模的財政刺激方案，預測在今年底之前經濟增長開始反彈似乎有些魯莽。但一些分析師已開始這么做了。

　　“China’s economy has continued to slow down in the past months and there is no rapid reboundin sight,” said Louis Kuijs of Royal Bank of Scotland. “However, the . . . trade data, together with theSeptember data on financing, suggest a bottoming out may be in sight.”
“過去幾個月里中國經濟持續放緩，目前尚無迅速復蘇的可能，”蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示， “然而……貿易數據和9月融資數據似乎表明，中國經濟可能很快就會觸底回升。”

　　Robust financing flows in September indicate that the economy could be improving. Althoughrenminbi loans were a little weaker than expected, the broader picture of credit growth was morepositive. The central bank has developed ‘total social financing’ to encompass all forms of credit, including equity and bond issuance, traditional bank loans and off-balance-sheet loans. This overallnumber shot up to Rmb1.65tn ($260bn) in September from Rmb1.24tn in August.
9月強勁的融資量表明，中國經濟可能正在好轉。盡管人民幣貸款略遜于預期，但整體信貸增長更為積極。中國央行已啟用“社會融資總量”，以納入各種信貸，包括股票和債券發行、傳統的銀行貸款，以及表外貸款。9月份，社會融資總量由8月的1.24萬億元人民幣上升至1.65萬億元人民幣（合2600億美元）。

　　For local governments, which have announced more than Rmb10tn of investment projects , thismoney will make it easier to get to work. Subdued consumer price pressures and falling producerprices also give the government more room to ease monetary policy without worrying aboutinflation. Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities said: “Inflationary pressure will not be a primaryconcern for the economy in the coming months. It will thus provide scope for monetary easing.”
對于已公布逾10萬億元人民幣投資項目的地方政府來說，這些資金將使其更容易開工。消費者價格壓力減輕，加上生產者價格下跌，給政府更多放松貨幣政策的空間，而無需擔心通脹。瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)的沈建光表示：“在未來幾個月，通脹壓力將不會是中國經濟令人擔心的主要因素。這將為放松貨幣政策提供空間。”