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Lesson 28 Political Polls
政治民意調意
I. Text. Many people closely follow the political polls during the final weeks preceding an important election.
有許多人密切關注著此次重要選舉前最后幾周進行的民意調查。
But how do these polls actually work?
但民意調查到底是怎么一回事呢？
Polls are surveys of a relatively small number of people compared to the actual number who will vote.
它是為了在最后投票前確定誰可能在選舉中獲勝
They are an attempt to determine who may actually win an election in advance of the final vote.
對與真正會參加投票的人相對而言的少數人進行的調查。
Let's say 100 million people are expected to vote in the general election.
比如說，預計有100萬人會參加大選。
If 100 people are asked for their opinions, each respondent represents a million voters.
如果調查對象是100人的話，那么每個問卷回答者就代表一萬選民。
Obviously, the results of such a poll are not very reliable.
顯然這樣的調查結果不會十分可靠。
The more people are surveyed, the more meaningful are the results.
參與調查的人越多，結果就越有意義。
Pollsters have various ways of making their polls more accurate.
民意測驗專家用各種手段來提高測驗結果的準確性。
They try to find a representative variety of people to question.
他們盡可能地尋找有代表性的人群測驗。
For example, they look for people with similar backgrounds and from similar regions to those fo all the voters.
例如，參加測驗的人與選民來自同一地區，有著相同的背景。
Pollsters also ask questions that help determine how many people will actually vote for the candidate they support.
測驗專家還試圖確定支持各個候選人的選民到底有多少會真正去投票。
If a candidate has a higher percentage of enthusiastic supporters than his opponent's, he has a better chance of winning the election than they.
如果一個候選人的熱情支持者的百分比高于他的對手，他獲勝的幾率就比其他人要高。
Pollsters may count only those whom they consider to be "likely voters".
測驗專家們也許只計算那些他們認為“有希望的選民”。
If we look at polls that are conducted over time, we can often detect a trend.
如果我們看一看一個時期以來的測驗結果，我們常常可以發現一種趨勢。
We can tell if a candidate is gaining
通過比較最新測驗和較早測驗的結果，
or losing support when we compare the most recent poll to earlier ones.
我們可以知道候選人是贏得了更多的支持，還是失去了原有的支持
Polls often ask potential(those who could be) voters what they like or dislike about each candidate.
測驗中常常詢問潛在的（可能成為）選民他們對每個候選人的好惡。
The campaign organizers then use those results to help them decide which issues to stress or which positions to clarify.
競選組織者利用這樣的結果來決定強調的重點和需要澄清的立場。
They can also determine which voters to target with their messages.
他們還可以確定把哪些選民作為目標群體。
Because no two people are alike, polls can never be perfect predictors of the real vote.
由于人都有個性，民意測驗永遠也不可能萬無一失地預測真正的投票結果。
But they can give important clues as to where things may be heading.
但是它們可以為局勢的走向提供重要的結索。
At the very least, if you like politics, polls can be great entertainment. A Good President.
如果你喜歡政治的話，民意測驗至少也是很好的娛樂方式。不錯的總統。
The results of the poll show Bill Clinton's approval rating has gone up in his second term.
民意調查的結果顯示比爾.克林頓的工作支持率在他的第二任期內提高了。
Do you find that interesting?
你覺得有意思嗎？
Well, I think Clinton deserves high marks for doing his job generally,
我覺得克林頓應對工作的總體能力是應該獲得高分的，
but he may get low marks for his honesty and personal image.
但是他在誠實和個人形象方面可能會得到較低的分數。
That is exactly what the poll shows.
民意調查的結果正是如此。
Although the stating of Clinton as a person has gone down in the last two years of his term, his approval rating is as high as 66 percent.
雖然在任期的最后兩年中他的個人支持率下降了，他的工作支持率卻上升到了66%。
I don't find this surprising. The poll data sound quite right. He is a good president.
我覺得這不奇怪。調查數據聽起來很有道理。他是個不錯的總統。
But the poll says only 15 percent say he will be remembered as an outstanding president. A Good President.
但是根據民意顯示，只有15%的人認為人們會把他作為一位杰出的總統銘記在心。不錯的總統。
The results of the poll show Bill Clinton's approval rating has gone up in his second term.
民意調查的結果顯示比爾.克林頓的工作支持率在他的第二任期內提高了。
Do you find that interesting?
你覺得有意思嗎？
Well, I think Clinton deserves high marks for doing his job generally,
我覺得克林頓應對工作的總體能力是應該獲得高分的，
but he may get low marks for his honesty and personal image.
但是他在誠實和個人形象方面可能會得到較低的分數。
That is exactly what the poll shows.
民意調查的結果正是如此。
Although the stating of Clinton as a person has gone down in the last two years of his term, his approval rating is as high as 66 percent.
雖然在任期的最后兩年中他的個人支持率下降了，他的工作支持率卻上升到了66%。
I don't find this surprising. The poll data sound quite right. He is a good president.
我覺得這不奇怪。調查數據聽起來很有道理。他是個不錯的總統。
But the poll says only 15 percent say he will be remembered as an outstanding president.
但是根據民意顯示，只有15%的人認為人們會把他作為一位杰出的總統銘記在心。
