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美國買房正當其時

Talk about capitulation! Judging from my mailbag following last week's coverage of the Case-Shiller housing numbers, almost nobody has a good word to say about the real estate market any more.

I'm an instinctive contrarian. So I hope readers don't take it the wrong way when I say that when so many of you agree with me, I start to get nervous.

And where is my hate mail? The brokers must be totally whipped. Even a year ago anyone questioning housing prices could reliably expect a torrent of furious replies from those in the business.

Today? Almost nothing. And the few left are mostly of the 'U r an idiot (Sent from my iPhone)' variety. Pitiful.

Maybe the moment of maximum pessimism is at hand after all.

So let me play devil's advocate and consider the positive case for buying a home right now.

The key factor: Interest rates.

If you can borrow at 4.5% or 5% over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing. Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

Inflation isn't guaranteed: The bond markets are only predicting about 1.4% inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger. Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle. That's the classic recipe.

And inflation is the debtors' friend -- which is why it is surely going to prove the politically expedient way out of this mess.

Anyone purchasing hard assets like real estate, with a 5% fixed rate loan, ought to make good money if that happens.

When it comes to the house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal ('When Will Housing Recover?') suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Homes were much cheaper, say, as recently as the 1970s.

Furthermore: the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust. Considering how sharply home prices climbed from 2002 to 2006, one might expect real estate to end up really, really cheap before bottoming out. And you wouldn't expect a quick rebound either. Japan still hasn't recovered from 1989.

But if you are thinking of buying a home, here's the more positive news: While overall market averages may not be as cheap as you might have expected, you can probably ignore them.

There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels. The indices are masking a huge disparity in prices.

Even the National Association of Realtors concedes distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales are closing about 20% below 'normal' market rates. (Never mind how to define 'normal').

Aggressive buyers are finding some simply terrific deals. And they're paying with cheap debt, too.

Default rates are rising. Lots of sellers are forced. A buyer with options holds all the cards.

Once upon a time, the name of the real estate game was 'let's make a deal.' Today, it's 'take it or leave it.' If the seller won't take your offer, his neighbor probably will.

自上周寫了有關Case-Shiller住房數據的報導后，從我郵箱的情況來看，幾乎沒有什么人對房地產市場還抱有希望。

我是個本能的反向操作派。因此，當我說如果你們中有很多人認同我、我就開始變得緊張時，我希望讀者不要從反面理解我的話。

那些煩人的郵件哪里去了？這些經紀人一定是徹底完蛋了。即使在一年前，任何有關房價的問題一定都會得到這些從業人員大量的熱情回復。

今天呢？幾乎什么都沒有。僅有的幾個都是諸如“你是個白癡（來自我的iPhone）”之類的話。可憐。

或許，極度悲觀的時刻就要到來了。

因此，讓我冒天下之大不韙，考慮一下眼下買房子的積極一面。

關鍵因素是：利率。

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率獲得30年期的貸款，那么，許多購房計劃看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下來會出現較高的通貨膨脹的話，就更是如此了。

如果發生這種情況，你的月度供款會較低，你可以在一定時間內用貶值的美元逐漸償還掉本金。這真是兩全其美。

通貨膨脹不一定會發生：債券市場對未來10年的通貨膨脹率預期只有1.4%，而BCA Research最近提醒客戶，通貨緊縮的危險依然存在。失業率仍在上升，近期的工資水平實際在下降。