In a two-party system, both parties need to be capable of governing, of having some long view of the central challenge -- which, arguably, in our case remains the financing challenge of the American welfare state. John McCain may not be much of an economist and hasn't adopted the "ownership society" as his slogan, but his health-care plan falls right in with tradition on the center right -- a spectrum that once included Bill Clinton -- of invoking a new role for individual responsibility and individual choice in making the welfare state work.

在兩黨體系下，兩個(gè)黨都需要具備統(tǒng)治力，要能夠?qū)诵奶魬?zhàn)提出長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)觀點(diǎn)，而值得商榷的是，在我們這種情況下，這種核心挑戰(zhàn)僅剩下對(duì)美國(guó)福利國(guó)家地位的金融挑戰(zhàn)。約翰·麥凱恩可能不是個(gè)好的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，也沒(méi)有接受“所有權(quán)社會(huì)”作為自己的口號(hào)，但是他的衛(wèi)生保健計(jì)劃正好符合了中右傳統(tǒng)，這一傳統(tǒng)的范圍曾經(jīng)包括了比爾·克林頓，它主張?jiān)诒３指＠麌?guó)家正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的過(guò)程中為個(gè)人責(zé)任和個(gè)人選擇賦予新的角色。

Democrats, in contrast, never really tell us where they want us to go. That hasn't been the Democratic way and Mr. Obama, in this, is a perfect Democrat -- as opaque on the big question as his party has been. Al Gore let on that he favored a single payer health-care system only two years after he lost the White House. Politics -- simple politics -- instead has been Democrats' governing philosophy, and Mr. Obama is, again, the perfect heir.

相比之下，民主黨實(shí)際上從來(lái)沒(méi)有告訴我們他們希望我們何去何從。這可不是慣常的民主作風(fēng)，而奧巴馬先生由于和他的黨一樣對(duì)重大問(wèn)題態(tài)度模糊而成了完美的民主黨人。艾爾·戈?duì)栔钡皆跔?zhēng)奪白宮總統(tǒng)寶座失利兩年后，才透露說(shuō)他支持一個(gè)單一付款人的衛(wèi)生健康系統(tǒng)。權(quán)術(shù)，僅僅是權(quán)術(shù)，取而代之成為民主黨的統(tǒng)治哲學(xué)，而奧巴馬又正是其最佳繼承者。

In an interesting piece of work, economist Henning Bohn has forecast the future voting propensities of an aging electorate based on two things: how much in taxes a median voter would expect to pay until retirement, and the present value of his or her expected Social Security and Medicare benefits.

在一篇有趣的文章中，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家海寧·波恩基于以下兩點(diǎn)對(duì)逐漸老齡化的選民的未來(lái)投票傾向進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)：中間年齡段的選民預(yù)期到退休前將支付的稅款，他或她預(yù)期將獲得的社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)值。

His conclusion: It will make financial sense for the median voter to vote for higher taxes on his remaining working years and on younger people in order to secure his benefits.

他的結(jié)論是：如果中間年齡段的選民為了確保自己的利益而選擇投票支持對(duì)他的剩余工作年限和對(duì)更年輕的人征收更高的稅，那從金融方面是講得通的。

If he's right, Democrats need to say only one thing when running for office -- and that's nothing intelligible about the funding dilemma of the welfare state or the need to address it. Mr. Obama has evidently learned his politics well. This week, he told Time Magazine's Joe Klein that, after the current financial crisis, "a new energy economy . . . That's going to be my No. 1 priority when I get into office."

如果他是對(duì)的，民主黨人在競(jìng)選公職時(shí)只需說(shuō)一件事情- 這個(gè)福利國(guó)家的融資困境不是那么容易理解的，無(wú)需多言。奧巴馬先生顯然深悟此道。本周他告訴時(shí)代雜志的喬·克萊恩，在現(xiàn)在的金融危機(jī)結(jié)束之后，“一個(gè)新的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)…將成為我就職后首先要考慮的事情。”

This is a cipher, an air sandwich. Mr. Obama here affords himself a placeholder for a priority to be named later. He knows that such impractical, centrally planned "energy revolutions" have been preached by candidates and op-ed writers for decades, only to be forgotten after inauguration day in favor of less rhetorical agendas.

這等于零，一個(gè)空中三明治。在這一點(diǎn)上奧巴馬先生為自己日后才會(huì)公布的優(yōu)先權(quán)留了一個(gè)預(yù)留位置。他知道盡管這樣一個(gè)不切實(shí)際、自上而下設(shè)計(jì)的“能源革命”被歷屆總統(tǒng)候選人和時(shí)事評(píng)論者鼓吹了幾十年了，總統(tǒng)就職日一過(guò)它就會(huì)被忘掉，取而代之的是不那么華麗浮夸的議事日程。

Mr. Obama's knack for eliciting pleasing feelings of self-regard in his followers is certainly a political virtue. (That so many of John McCain's supporters must hold their noses is, in its way, the equal and opposite virtue.) More than that, the vagueness of Mr. Obama's governing philosophy is a natural fit for a party that has long been wedded to the strategy that you get where you're going (a bigger welfare state) by not saying where you're going.

奧巴馬先生激發(fā)其追隨者自我關(guān)注的滿(mǎn)足感的本事無(wú)疑是個(gè)政治美德。(讓約翰·麥凱恩的支持者肯定會(huì)捂住鼻子的是，這本身就是個(gè)南轅北轍自相矛盾的美德。) 不僅如此，奧巴馬先生統(tǒng)治哲學(xué)的曖昧含糊天然就適合一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)奉行走一步看一步戰(zhàn)略（比如一個(gè)更大的福利國(guó)家）的黨，而不告訴你們到底往哪里走。