China's labor markets are flashing a warning sign, with new job adverts on a leading recruitment website sharply down in April, and job losses in manufacturing spreading to the services sector.
中國勞動力市場開始閃現警告標志。今年4月,一家主要招聘網站上的新增招聘廣告突然大幅減少,制造業的失業現象開始向服務業蔓延。
With the official data on labor markets infrequent -- and, in some cases, misleading -- alternative indicators take on an added significance. China Real Time took advantage of China's glut of recent graduates to have an unpaid intern find the best guides to the state of hiring and firing.
由于官方很少發布有關勞動力市場的數據,而且有時還會具有誤導性,因此其它指標就會背負更多意義。中國現在有大量應屆生面臨畢業,這讓《華爾街日報》“中國實時報”欄目有機會通過無薪實習生來很好地了解當前公司招聘和解雇的情況。
Check out the charts. It's more fun that trawling the 'help wanted' ads.
請參看以下圖表。搜尋那些“求助”廣告更有意思。
With China's white-collar workers taking their job search online, recruitment websites like Zhaopin.com have become one measure of labor market strength. In April, the number of new job opportunities on Zhaopin.com plunged 23% from the previous month. With the first quarter a seasonal peak for hiring, some decline in April is normal. But Zhaopin still saw warning signs.
中國白領人士都在網上找工作,所以像智聯招聘(Zhaopin.com)這樣的招聘網站成了衡量中國勞動力市場強度的一個指標。今年4月,智聯招聘上的新增工作機會在數量上環比驟降23%。由于第一季度是招聘高峰季,所以4月招聘廣告數量有所下降也屬正常。但智聯招聘仍看到了警告信號。
'Slowing growth in economy and industries has resulted in job cuts. Since the second half of last year, waves of job cuts were seen in several industries, including IT, telecommunication, power, manufacturing, financial and online retailers. Companies that cut jobs range from large multi-internationals to state-owned enterprises,' a Zhaopin spokesman said.
智聯招聘發言人說,經濟和工業增速放緩導致公司裁員;從去年下半年開始,IT、電信、電力、制造業、金融和在線零售等幾個行業都出現裁員浪潮,裁員企業既包括大型跨國公司,也包括中國國企。
China's purchasing managers' indexes also pointed to job losses. The official PMI employment index came in at 49 in April, down from 49.8 in March and the 11th straight month below the 50 mark that separates hiring from firing. The preliminary HSBC Markit PMI for May showed factories shedding workers for a second month.
中國采購經理人指數(PMI)也表明就業崗位在減少。今年4月,官方PMI就業指數為49,低于3月的49.8,連續第11個月低于招聘和解雇的枯榮線50。匯豐/Markit 5月份PMI初值顯示,工廠在連續第二個月裁員。
In a worrying sign, the HSBC survey also showed service sector firms starting to shed jobs in April, the first time they have done so since January 2009.
另外一個令人擔心的跡象是,匯豐的調查還表明,服務業公司從4月開始裁員,這是2009年1月以來的首次。
A survey of more than 600 firms conducted in March by human resources consulting firm Mercer also pointed to a slowdown in hiring plans. The survey found 51% of firms planning to add to their headcount, and 16% planning layoffs, a move in the wrong direction from 55% and 9% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2012.
人力資源咨詢公司美世(Mercer)今年3月對600多家公司的調查顯示,企業在招聘計劃方面放緩了腳步。調查發現,51%的公司有增加員工的打算,16%的公司打算裁員。與此形成鮮明對比的是,2012年第四季度打算這么做的公司分別為55%和9%。
Cherry Xu, senior consultant at Mercer China, said employers are more cautious than the same period of last year, when the demand for hiring was notably higher.
美世中國的高級咨詢師Cherry Xu說,相比去年同期,雇主現在更為謹慎,去年的這個時候招聘需求明顯高于現在。
If China's labor markets are turning down, they are doing so from a position of strength. Real wages in the private sector rose 14% in 2012, higher than the 12.3% growth in 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics said last week.
如果中國勞動力市場真地開始降溫,那也是在一個相對堅實的基礎上開始下行的。中國國家統計局上周說,2012年私營行業員工實際工資增長了14%,增速高于2011年的12.3%。
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