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歐盟口譯實戰第一課:人為制造的氣候災難

來源:普特 編輯:lily ?  可可英語APP下載 |  可可官方微信:ikekenet

Man-made climate change may prove a disaster. No, I do not mean climate change itself. My concern here is rather over the policy responses.

人為造成的氣候變化也許確實是一場災難。不,我指的并非氣候變化本身。在這個問題上,我更擔心的是政府做出的政策回應。

For, as was predictable and predicted, recognition of the risks is generating a host of interventionist gimmickry, not least in the UK.

因為,正如可以預計和已經預計到的那樣,對風險的認知正在滋生大量干涉主義花招,尤其是在英國。

People I think of as my friends - pro-market liberals - are suspicious of what many of them consider the "man-made climate change hysteria". They are surely right to note that it is a remarkably convenient banner for opponents of the market economy, be they egalitarians or deep-green environmentalists. This time, they fear, Malthusians and socialists may have a politically successful (albeit, in their view, scientifically false) argument in favour of a long-standing desire to throttle the life out of the free-enterprise economy.

我視為朋友的那些人——支持市場經濟的自由主義者,對他們中許多人將“人為造成的氣候變化看作歇斯底里癥”的觀點表示懷疑。他們指出(這點無疑是正確的),對于反對市場經濟的人——無論是平等主義者還是環保主義者,這都是一個相當方便的旗號。他們擔心,馬爾薩斯主義者和社會主義者這次可能擁有了一個在政治上頗為成功的論點(盡管在他們看來,這種論點在科學上是錯誤的),來支持扼殺自由企業經濟的長期愿望。

Lord Lawson, chancellor of the exchequer in the government of Margaret Thatcher, partly took this line in a lecture he delivered to the Centre for Policy Studies last November. I do not know what he thinks of David Cameron's adventures in the politics and policy of climate change. But I can guess.

去年11月,曾任瑪格麗特·撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)政府財政大臣的勞森爵士(Lord Lawson)在政策研究中心(Centre for Policy Studies)發表演說時,在一定程度上采取了這種姿態。我不知道他對英國保守黨領袖大衛·卡梅隆(David Cameron)在政治和氣候變化政策方面的冒險作何感想。但我可以猜到。

Yet even if one accepts the validity of concerns about man-made climate change, one should agree that market liberals also have a legitimate concern. Instead of policies that are minimally intrusive, well-targeted and efficient, we are depressingly likely to get the exact opposite.

然而,即使承認對人為造成的氣候變化的擔憂有其合理性,人們也應當同意,市場自由主義者的擔心也不無道理。令人沮喪的是,我們看到的可能不是侵犯性最小、目標明確和行之有效的政策,而是恰恰相反。

This is partly because many on the climate-change bandwagon do not want to leave the market economy intact. "Are you enjoying yourselves?" seems to be their question. "Let's find some way of stopping you." It is also because politicians have a strong desire to tinker piecemeal.

這其中的部分原因在于,許多攀上氣候變化大潮的人并不想讓市場經濟毫發無傷。他們的問題似乎是:“你很快樂?那我們要設法阻止你。”另一個原因在于,政界人士強烈希望修補殘局。

Since climate change is likely to be a concern over decades, it is essential to get policy right. The big rule, as always, is: keep it simple, stupid.

氣候變化可能會成為一個持續數十年的問題,因此制定正確的政策至關重要。一如往常,首要的原則是:要簡單,笨蛋。

A good example of what many (though not all) economists would consider a mistake has been the decision to go for tradeable emissions permits whose prices have proved disturbingly unstable. Predictably, the adoption of such permits is already leading to proposals to create a carbon emissions budget for every individual. Predictably, too, this return to rationing is, in the UK, supported by rhetorical appeal to the egalitarian spirit of the Blitz (Mark Roodhouse, this page, March 13, 2007).

許多(盡管并非所有)經濟學家都認為是一個錯誤的恰當例子是:決定推行可交易的排放權。令人不安的是,事實證明,排放權價格非常不穩定。正如人們能夠預見的到的那樣,采用這種排放權制度已經導致有人提議,為每個人建立一份碳排放預算。同樣如人們可以預見到的那樣,這種向配給制度的回歸在英國得到布利茨平等主義精神呼聲的支持(馬克·魯德豪斯(Mark Roodhouse),本版,2007年3月13日)。

Yet the spirit of the Blitz, applied in the UK alone, will achieve just about nothing, since the UK is responsible for a mere 2 per cent of the global total. So what Mr Roodhouse and his ilk should call for is a global system of individual tradeable permits, to operate not just for a decade, but for the indefinite future. It is clear why an egalitarian with control-freak tendencies might welcome such a system of bureaucratic controls on most of humanity that this would require. But why should anybody else do so? And why should anybody believe it could be made workable?

但僅僅應用于英國的布利茨精神幾乎不會取得任何成效,因為英國的溫室氣體排放量僅占全球總量的區區2%。因此,魯德豪斯等人應當呼吁的是,在全球范圍內建立一個可交易的個人排放權制度,期限不是只有10年,而是無限的未來。很顯然,有“控制狂”傾向的平等主義者可能會歡迎這樣一個對多數人進行官方控制的系統。但為何其他人也要歡迎這樣做呢?為何每個人都應該認為它可以行得通呢?

Yet Mr Roodhouse is at least logical. He does also accept that his ration coupons should be tradeable. Meanwhile, Mr Cameron suggests that each individual might have some sort of "green air miles allowance", with a sliding scale of taxation on those who travel most. The difficulty of monitoring such travel would prove immense: one can already foresee the host of business people taking their flights from Paris. Mr Cameron is right that air travel should be included in the scope of taxation.

不過,魯德豪斯的觀點至少還合乎邏輯。他的確也承認,他的“配給券”應該是可交易的。與此同時,卡梅隆提出,每個人或許都可以有某種“溫室氣體里程津貼”,對旅行最多的人計征浮動稅率。監測這類旅行的難度會極其巨大:我們可以預見,從巴黎搭乘航班的商業人士數量是多大的一個數字。卡梅隆關于乘飛機旅行應該被納入征稅范圍的觀點是對的。

He is right, too, that the taxation of emissions should, other things being equal, replace other taxes, rather than raise the overall level of taxation.

他的另外一個觀點也是對的:在其它條件不變的情況下,碳排放稅應當取代其它稅種,而不是提高整體稅負。

But this is surely no more than a populist gimmick.

但這無疑只是一個民粹主義者的小花招罷了。

Then there is the government. In its new climate change bill, it proposes "a series of clear targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions - including making the UK's targets for a 60 per cent reduction by 2050 and a 26 to 32 per cent reduction by 2020 legally binding". In this case, as I understand it, the government would be held legally liable for failing to compel the people of this country to behave as it desires over the next half century.

接下來是政府。在最新的氣候變化方案中,英國政府提議“為降低二氧化碳排放設定一系列明確的目標,包括讓英國在2050年之前減排60%、2020年之前減少26%至32%的目標具有法律約束力”。我的理解是,在這種情況下,如果英國政府在未來半個世紀不能迫使其民眾按照要求的方式行事,那政府將承擔法律責任。

I find that frightening.

我發現這種情景很恐怖。

Meanwhile, in a typically wide-ranging speech this week, the chancellor proposed a raft of initiatives and incentives on light bulbs, efficiency standards, home insulation and micro-generation. It is impossible for the outsider to judge whether these would be cost-effective. Is the plan to make new homes "zero carbon" an efficient way to achieve emissions reductions? I have no idea. I suspect the government does not have any idea either.

與此同時,在本周一次典型的、內容廣泛的演講中,勞森爵士針對燈泡、效率標準、家居絕緣和微型發電等,提出了大量創造性建議和激勵計劃。讓外人來判斷這些東西是否具有成本效益,這是不可能的。讓新建房屋實現“零排放”的計劃是實現減排目標的有效途徑嗎?我不知道。我猜想政府也不知道。

Let us concentrate on the big issues: any workable policy system must be global; it must create stable incentives; it must be administratively simple; it must include investment in creation and dissemination of new technologies; and, not least, it must allow people to get on with their lives with as much freedom as possible. Uniform prices on emissions - ideally, through taxation - will do most of this job. Almost everything else is unnecessary or counterproductive.

讓我們聚集于大的問題:任何可行的政策體系都必須是全球性的;它必須形成穩定的激勵措施;必須易于管理;必須包括新技術創造和傳播方面的投資;更重要的是,它必須讓人們可以盡可能自由地生活。統一的減排價格——在理論上,可以通過稅收實現——將完成上述大部分工作。其它所有建議幾乎都是不必要的,且達不到預期效果。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
predictably

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adv. 可預言地

 
gimmick ['gimik]

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n. 暗機關,小發明,花招,噱頭 vt. 用暗機關改變或

聯想記憶
foresee [fɔ:'si:]

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v. 預見,預知

聯想記憶
albeit [ɔ:l'bi:it]

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conj. 即使;雖然

聯想記憶
uniform ['ju:nifɔ:m]

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n. 制服
adj. 一致的,統一的

聯想記憶
budget ['bʌdʒit]

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n. 預算
vt. 編預算,為 ... 做預算

 
counterproductive [,kauntəprə'dʌktiv]

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adj. 反生產的;使達不到預期目標的

聯想記憶
recognition [.rekəg'niʃən]

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n. 認出,承認,感知,知識

 
humanity [hju:'mæniti]

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n. 人類,人性,人道,慈愛,(復)人文學科

 
unnecessary [ʌn'nesisəri]

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adj. 不必要的,多余的

 
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