熱錢由于具有投機性和流動的不確定性,是各國嚴控或打擊的對象。具體到中國,之所以對熱錢嚴正以待,是因為“熱錢”的存在,不利于政府貨幣政策的制定和實施。在中國資本項目仍然管制的條件下,“熱錢”的影響主要表現在對匯率的沖擊上,央行為了保持匯率穩定,在“熱錢”不斷涌入的情況下,不得不大量買入外匯資金,貨幣供給大大增加。另一方面,為了抑制“熱錢”的流入,加大其成本,需要壓低人民幣利率。兩者的結果使得市場上的流動性大大增強,這又有可能造成通貨膨脹和經濟過熱。
Hot money, because of its speculative purpose and uncertain flow, is under strict control or crackdown throughout the world. As for China, why is the government highly vigilant to combat it? Firstly, hot money is detrimental to the formulation and implementation of the monetary policy. With capital accounts still under control in China, the risk hot money poses mainly lies in the impact on exchange rate. To maintain the stability of exchange rate in the backdrop of hot money constantly pouring in, the central bank has to buy in a great amount of foreign funds, and thus money supply is considerably augmented. Moreover, to curb the inflow of hot money by increasing its cost, RMB has to be devaluated. The above two measures, however, leads to a surging liquidity in the market, which in turn may result in inflation and overheated economy.
其次,“熱錢”不利于國際收支平衡和人民幣匯率穩定。“熱錢”的大規模流動會增加外匯市場的不穩定因素,不利于國際收支的調節,并可能加劇國際收支失衡、造成匯率扭曲,甚至引發金融危機。
Secondly, hot money is detrimental to the balance of international payment and the stability of RMB exchange rate. The large-scale flow of hot money will bring more uncertainties to the foreign exchange market, do harm to the adjustment of international payment and may intensify the imbalance in this aspect, cause distortion in exchange rate, and even trigger off another financial crisis.
另外,“熱錢”不利于金融市場和銀行體系的安全穩健。“熱錢”并不是有效資本,其進入中國就是為了牟取暴利,只等人民幣升值獲利就走,撤走之后,將會引發股市、樓市大跌,增加了國內金融市場的不穩定性。
Thirdly, hot money is detrimental to the safety and stability of the financial market and banking system. Unlike effecient capitals, hot money flows into China with the very purpose to seek sudden and huge profits from the appreciation of RMB. Once the profits are gained, hot money will retreat, which touches off the plunge in the stock and housing markets, and intensifies the volatility in the domestic financial market.