評(píng)論
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Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely——though by no means uniformly——glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfillment and opportunity for all.
幾十年前，我們對(duì)于未來的看法盡管并不一致，但總的來說頗為樂觀。我們相信科學(xué)和技術(shù)將會(huì)治愈人類的一切疾病，使所有人都過上充滿機(jī)會(huì)和成就感的生活。
Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.
如今，隨著我們對(duì)自己所面臨的一系列威脅有了更深刻的認(rèn)識(shí)，比如從小行星撞擊，到流感，再到氣候變化，烏托邦式已經(jīng)不合時(shí)宜。你甚至可能會(huì)禁不住要想：人類幾乎前途渺茫。
But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years —— so why shouldn't we? Take a broader look at our species' place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the "Red List" of threatened species of the International Union for the Conversation of Nature (IUCN) ,and you will read: "Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline."
然而，這種擔(dān)憂不合時(shí)宜。化石記錄表明，許多物種已經(jīng)存活了數(shù)百萬年之久，那么人類為何就不可以呢？從一個(gè)更宏觀的視角來看一看人類在宇宙中的地位，就會(huì)清楚明白，即使人類生存不了幾十萬年，至少再存活幾萬年的機(jī)會(huì)還是很大。在國際自然保護(hù)聯(lián)盟的瀕危物種 "紅色名錄"上查閱"智人"這一條目，你會(huì)讀到："由于該物種分布非常廣泛，適應(yīng)性強(qiáng)，目前數(shù)量持續(xù)上升，且不存在導(dǎo)致其整體數(shù)量下降的重大威脅，故被列為最無危物種"。
So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has its flagship project a medical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.
那么，我們的遙遠(yuǎn)未來會(huì)是什么景象呢？越來越多的研究者和組織機(jī)構(gòu)正在認(rèn)真思考這個(gè)問題。比如，今日不朽基金會(huì)的旗艦項(xiàng)目是一臺(tái)機(jī)械時(shí)鐘，該時(shí)鐘的設(shè)計(jì)目標(biāo)是能夠在幾千幾萬年后保持計(jì)時(shí)功能。
Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today's technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it's perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That's one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.
這樣做或許有些一意孤行，但推想久遠(yuǎn)的未來要比思考即將發(fā)生的未來更為容易。當(dāng)今技術(shù)的可能發(fā)展及它的社會(huì)影響結(jié)果非常復(fù)雜，或許最好的辦法是讓科幻小說家和未來學(xué)家去探索我們能想象到的種種可能。這正是我們發(fā)行《弧》的原因之一，該新刊物旨在探索不遠(yuǎn)的未來。
But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.
但是，如果采用一個(gè)更為長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的視角，我們便能對(duì)驚人數(shù)量的事情做出很有把握的預(yù)測(cè)。通常，過去掌握著通向未來的鑰匙：目前，我們已經(jīng)充分了解有關(guān)地球歷史和人類歷史的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展模式，這使我們能對(duì)子孫后代的生存環(huán)境做出有根據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)。
This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
這種長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的視角使我們對(duì)未來的悲觀態(tài)度更像是一股短暫的風(fēng)潮。誠然，未來絕非一片光明。不過，我們已經(jīng)有足夠的知識(shí)去降低許多曾經(jīng)威脅前人生存的危險(xiǎn)，以及去改善后人的命運(yùn)。
