評(píng)論
打印
Will the European Union make it? The question would have sounded strange not long ago. Now even the project's greatest cheerleaders talk of a continent facing a "Bermuda triangle" of debt, population decline and lower growth.
歐盟能行嗎？在不久前，這個(gè)問(wèn)題是聽(tīng)來(lái)讓人覺(jué)得奇怪。如今，即使是最熱衷歐盟事業(yè)的人也在談?wù)摎W洲所面臨的百慕大三角問(wèn)題，這三大問(wèn)題是：債臺(tái)高筑、人口下降和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。
As well as those chronic problems, the EU face an acute crisis in its economic core, the 16 countries that use the single currency. Markets have lost faith that the euro zone's economies, weaker or stronger, will one day converge thanks to the discipline of sharing a single currency, which denies uncompetitive members the quick fix of devaluation.
歐盟除了存在這些長(zhǎng)期性的問(wèn)題外，其經(jīng)濟(jì)核心還面臨一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)，該經(jīng)濟(jì)核心指的是使用統(tǒng)一貨幣的16個(gè)國(guó)家。人們?cè)嘈牛瑲W元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，無(wú)論弱國(guó)或強(qiáng)國(guó)，只要本著使用統(tǒng)一貨幣的原則，就能避免了那些缺乏競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的國(guó)家采取貨幣貶值這一權(quán)宜之計(jì)，就能有朝一日實(shí)現(xiàn)統(tǒng)一。如今市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)喪失了這種信念。
Yet the debate about how to save Europe's single currency from disintegration is stuck. It is stuck because the euro zone's dominant powers, France and Germany, agree on the need for greater harmonization within the euro zone, but disagree about what to harmonies.
然而，就如何力挽歐元于瓦解的辯論卻陷入了僵局。陷入僵局原因在于，歐元區(qū)的兩大主導(dǎo)力量－法國(guó)和德國(guó)一致同意有必要在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)更大的協(xié)調(diào)統(tǒng)一，但在對(duì)哪些方面進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)統(tǒng)一這個(gè)問(wèn)題上又存在分歧。
Germany thinks the euro must be saved by stricter rules on borrow spending and competitiveness, backed by quasi- automatic sanctions for governments that do not obey. These might include threats to freeze EU funds for poorer regions and EU mega-projects and even the suspension of a country's voting rights in EU ministerial councils. It insists that economic co-ordination should involve all 27 members of the EU club, among whom there is a small majority for free-market liberalism and economic rigour; in the inner core alone, Germany fears, a small majority favour French interference.
德國(guó)認(rèn)為應(yīng)該通過(guò)具有嚴(yán)格條款的借貸支出和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)節(jié)省歐元，對(duì)于不遵守條款的政府要實(shí)行類(lèi)似的自動(dòng)制裁方法。這些條款可能會(huì)凍結(jié)提供給較貧困地區(qū)和（歐盟）重大項(xiàng)目的歐盟資金，甚至?xí)和Ｒ粋€(gè)國(guó)家在歐盟部長(zhǎng)級(jí)會(huì)議上的投票權(quán)。德國(guó)主張經(jīng)濟(jì)合作應(yīng)該包括所有27個(gè)歐盟成員國(guó)。但歐盟中有一半多一點(diǎn)的國(guó)家信奉自由市場(chǎng)主義和嚴(yán)格的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。就歐盟核心成員國(guó)而言，德國(guó)擔(dān)心上述國(guó)家會(huì)支持法國(guó)的干預(yù)。
A "southern" camp headed by French wants something different: "European economic government" within an inner core of euro-zone members. Translated, that means politicians intervening in monetary policy and a system of redistribution from richer to poorer members, via cheaper borrowing for governments through common Eurobonds or complete fiscal transfers. Finally, figures close to the France government have murmured, euro-zone members should agree to some fiscal and social harmonization: e.g., curbing competition in corporate-tax rates or labour costs.
以法國(guó)為首的“南部”陣營(yíng)想法迥異，法國(guó)提倡在歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)組成的內(nèi)核中設(shè)立/建立“歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)政府”。這意味著政治家們會(huì)干預(yù)貨幣政策和可實(shí)現(xiàn)資金從較富裕成員國(guó)流向較貧窮成員國(guó)的再分配體系，這種（資金）再分配是經(jīng)由政府通過(guò)普通歐洲債券或徹底的財(cái)政轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行低息借款而實(shí)現(xiàn)的。最終，那些與法國(guó)政府聯(lián)系緊密的大人物頗有微詞：歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)應(yīng)該同意使用一些財(cái)政和社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)方案：例如，抑制企業(yè)稅率或勞工成本的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。
It is too soon to write off the EU. It remains the world's largest trading block. At its best, the European project is remarkably liberal: built around a single market of 27 rich and poor countries, its internal borders are far more open to goods, capital and labour than any comparable trading area. It is an ambitious attempt to blunt the sharpest edges of globalization, and make capitalism benign.
但解散歐盟為時(shí)尚早。它仍然是世界上最大的貿(mào)易區(qū)。它現(xiàn)在處于最佳狀態(tài)，歐洲的項(xiàng)目工程非常自由：（它是）圍繞由27個(gè)貧國(guó)和富國(guó)組成的單一市場(chǎng)而建立的，較之任何類(lèi)似的貿(mào)易區(qū)，它的內(nèi)部邊界對(duì)于商品、資本和勞動(dòng)力更為開(kāi)放。它擁有一個(gè)宏圖偉志，即鈍化全球化這把劍最鋒利的一面，同時(shí)使資本主義市場(chǎng)趨向良性發(fā)展。
