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In his book The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell argues that social epidemics are driven in large part by the action of a tiny minority of special individuals, often called influentials, who are unusually informed, persuasive, or well-connected.
在《引爆流行》這本書中，作者 Malcolm Gladwell 認為社會流行潮流在很大程度上是由一小部分特殊個體的行為引起的。這些人就是人們常說的影響者。他們異乎尋常的博聞多識，能言善辯，人脈廣泛。
The idea is intuitively compelling, but it doesn't explain how ideas actually spread.
從直覺上講Malcolm Gladwell的理論似乎很有說服力，但是它沒有解釋流行觀念的實際傳播過程。
The supposed importance of influentials derives from a plausible sounding but largely untested theory called the "two step flow of communication": Information flows from the media to the influentials and from them to everyone else.
人們之所以認為影響者很重要，是源于"兩級傳播"理論。即信息先從媒體流向影響者，然后再從影響者流向其他人。這一理論看似合理，但未經驗證。
Marketers have embraced the two-step flow because it suggests that if they can just find and influence the influentials, those selected people will do most of the work for them.
營銷人員接受兩級傳播理論是因為該理論認為如果能夠找到影響者，并對他們施加影響。這些精英們就會替他們完成大部分的營銷傳播工作。
The theory also seems to explain the sudden and unexpected popularity of certain looks, brands, or neighborhoods.
這一理論似乎還可以解釋某些裝扮、品牌或社區為何會突然受到出乎意料的追捧。
In many such cases, a cursory search for causes finds that some small group of people was wearing, promoting, or developing whatever it is before anyone else paid attention.
對于許多諸如此類的情況，如果只是走馬觀花地尋找原因，你會發現總是有一小群人開風氣之先，率先穿上、宣傳和開發人們此前從未留意的東西。
Anecdotal evidence of this kind fits nicely with the idea that only certain special people can drive trends
這種事實證據與該觀點正好一拍即合--只有一些特別的人才能引領潮流。
In their recent work, however, some researchers have come up with the finding that influentials have far less impact on social epidemics than is generally supposed.
但是在最近的研究中，一些研究人員發現，影響者對社會流行潮流的影響力遠比人們認為的要小。
In fact, they don't seem to be required of all.
事實上，他們似乎根本就是無關緊要。
The researchers' argument stems from a simple observing about social influence, with the exception of a few celebrities like Oprah Winfrey-whose outsize presence is primarily a function of media, not interpersonal, influence-even the most influential members of a population simply don't interact with that many others.
研究者的觀點源于對社會影響力的簡單觀察：除了少數像 Oprah Winfrey這樣的名人之外（她強大的人氣影響力主要來自媒體影響力，而非她與觀眾互動的人際影響力），即使人群中最有影響力的人也無法與那么多的"其他人"互動，從而引領潮流。
Yet it is precisely these non-celebrity influentials who, according to the two-step-flow theory, are supposed to drive social epidemics by influencing their friends and colleagues directly.
然而根據兩級傳播理論，正是這些非名人影響者直接影響了他們的朋友和同事，從而推動了社會流行潮流。
For a social epidemic to occur, however, each person so affected, must then influence his or her own acquaintances, who must in turn influence theirs, and so on;
但是，要讓一種社會流行潮流真正發生，每個受影響的人還必須影響他的熟人，而他的熟人又必須影響其他熟人，
and just how many others pay attention to each of these people has little to do with the initial influential.
依此類推；但是會有多少人去關注這些熟人中的每個人，與最初的影響者幾乎沒有關系。
If people in the network just two degrees removed from the initial influential prove resistant, for example, the cascade of change won't propagate very far or affect many people.
舉個例子來說，在這個人際影響的網絡中，如果第一個影響者受到兩次抵制，那么他的連鎖影響范圍就不會繼續擴大，或者說影響的人不會很多。
Building on the basic truth about interpersonal influence, the researchers studied the dynamics of social influence by conducting thousands of computer simulations of populations, manipulating a number of variables relating to people's ability to influence others and their tendency to be influenced.
基于這一人際影響力的基本事實，研究者們研究了社會影響的動力機制。我們對不同人群進行了成千上萬次計算機模擬，不斷調整人們影響他人和受他人影響的各種變量。
They found that the principal requirement for what we call "global cascades"- the widespread propagation of influence through networks - is the presence not of a few influentials but, rather, of a critical mass of easily influenced people.
他們發現，人們所說的"全球連鎖反應" -- 影響力通過（人際）網絡進行廣泛傳播 -- 發生的主要前提，并不取決于是否存在著那么幾個影響者，而主要取決于易受影響的人們是否達到了臨界數量。
