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Just because globalization is largely spontaneous propelled by better communications and transportation—does not mean that it is inevitable or completely irreversible. Governments can, in subtle and not-so-subtle ways, shield local industries and workers against imports or discriminate against foreign investors. If only a few countries do, their actions will not matter much. Global capital and trade will go where they are most welcome and productive. Indeed, it is precisely this logic that has persuaded so many countries to accept globalization. If they don't, someone else will. Judged by their behavior, most governments believe they have more to gain than to lose.
正是因為更完善的通信和交通設施，全球化在很大程度上得以自然而然地受到推動——但這不意味著全球化不可避免或不可逆轉。政府可以用微妙的或不那么微妙的方式庇護地方工業和工人免受進口的沖擊，或是排斥外國投資者。如果只是少數國家這樣做，這種行為并不會帶來多大的影響。全球資本和貿易會轉向它們最受歡迎和最有產出的地方。的確，也正是這種邏輯說服了眾多國家接受全球化。如果它們不接受，就會有別的國家接受。從其行為來看，大部分政府相信，他們獲得的利益大于損失。
But this does not mean that a powerful popular backlash, with unpredictable consequences, is not possible. In a global recession, too many sellers will be chasing too few buyers. A plausible presumption is that practical politicians would try to protect their constituents from global gluts. If too many countries did, globalization could implode.
但是這并不意味著民眾就不會對全球化表示強烈的反對，并導致難以預料的后果。在全球性經濟衰退的形勢下，過多的賣家將會追逐過少的買家。一個合情合理的假設就是務實的政客們將會盡力保護自己的選民免受全球性供過于求的侵襲。如果太多的國家這樣做，全球化將可能會從內部瓦解。
It's a scary prospect. Economic interdependence cuts both ways. Under favorable conditions, it helps everyone; under unfavorable conditions, it hurts everyone: Globalization's promise may exceed its peril—but the peril is still real. Both await the new century. One of the great dramas will be to see which prevails.
這是一種可怕的前景。經濟上的相互依賴利弊兼而有之。在有利情況下，它使各方受惠，在不利情況下，對各方都構成傷害。全球化的光明前景也許會超越它的危險性——但這種危險性真實存在。利弊都在等待新世紀的到來。到底哪一方會勝出，將會是新世紀極富戲劇性的重要事件之一。
