Whether we examine distances traveled, altitudes reached, or minerals mined, the same accelerative trend is obvious. The pattern, here and in a thousand other statistical series, is absolutely clear and unmistakable. Thousands of years go by, and then, in our own times, a sudden bursting of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward.
我們無論是考察旅行的距離、達到的高度,還是考察礦產的開采,這樣一種加速的趨向都是顯而易見的。這里,以及其它上千種的系統的統計資料里,都明白無誤地呈現出這種模式。數千年過去了,然后,到了我們的時代,一切極限突然統統被打破,出現了不可思議的突飛猛進。
The reason for this is that technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more technology possible, as we can see if we look for a moment at the process of innovation. Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked together into a self-reinforcing cycle. First, there is the creative, feasible idea. Second, its practical application. Third, its diffusion through society.
這一情況的出現,其原因在于技術自身的扶植作用。現有的技術使得更多的技術得以實現。只要我們稍許看一看革新的過程,就會一目了然。技術革新包含三個階段,它們連在一起形成一個自我強化的循環。首先是一個創造性的可行的想法。其二是它的實際應用。第三,是它在社會上的推廣。
The process is completed, the loop closed, when the diffusion of technology embodying the new idea, in turn, helps generate new creative ideas. Today there is evidence that the time between each of the steps in this cycle has been shortened.
當體現這一新思想的技術推廣反過來幫助產生新的創造性思想的時候,這一過程就完成了,這個循環也就結束了。今天,有證據表明,這一循環的每一個步驟之間的時間已經縮短了。