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Wanna know what the most popular movies, albums and video games are?
想了解最近流行什么電影，唱片及電子游戲？
Ask the internet.
問問互聯網就可以知曉。
But don't Google it. Check what other people Googled.
但是不要用谷歌搜索。看看其他人都搜索了什么。
That's the theory behind Google Flu Trends—which crunches search data to forecast flu prevalence.
這就是谷歌流感趨勢背后的理論—通過搜索數據來預測流行趨勢。
With admittedly mixed results.
而結果應該是好壞參半。
Nevertheless, researchers have applied the idea to the stock market.
盡管如此研究人員還是將這一觀點運用于股票市場。
They found that when searches related to business and politics go up, the market tends to take a dive.
他們發現，當商業和政治的相關搜索增多時，市場就有暴跌的傾向。
Queries for words like "election," "senate," and "CEO" are predictive of the downward trend—but not terms like "church," "earthquake" and "geometry."
而當涉及“選舉”、“參議員”及“首席執行官”這類詞匯時，就會預示著市場下跌的趨勢，而“教堂”、“地震”及“幾何學”等則不會帶來這樣的效果。
Why the correlation?
為什么會產生這樣的關聯?
The researchers say investors and the public may be more likely to search for information on business and government when they're concerned about the economy.
研究人員表示投資者和公眾對經濟狀況前景表示堪憂時，他們更傾向于搜索商業和政府等的相關信息。
And if confidence in the economy drops, so might stock prices.
而且如果他們對經濟的信心下降，股票的價格也會下降。
The findings appear in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
這項研究已經在《美國國家科學院院刊》上發表。
Over time, the correlation weakened—a sign that traders may already be using Internet search data in automated trading algorithms.
隨著時間的推移，這種關聯性會變弱—有跡象表明股市交易員可能已經將網絡搜索數據用于自動交易運算。
"Generally speaking, if an opportunity like this is known, then the effect will diminish,
“一般來講，如果已經知道有這種可能性，那么其產生的效果就會減弱。
and that's what we think we're seeing in the data we looked at, from 2004 to 2012."
這就是我們認為要在2004至2012年這些數據中所能發現的東西。”
Lead author Chester Curme, a research fellow at the Warwick Business School.
華威商學院首席研究員首席作者柯斯特柯爾姆說道。
And before you head over to Google Trends, he says, keep this in mind:
他也表示在進行搜索趨勢查詢時你要銘記一點：
"If somebody knows that other traders use this method, then a predatory trader could manipulate search volumes on Google artificially in order to deceive other traders."
“如果有人知道有其他交易員使用這種方法，那么一位不懷好意的交易員為了欺騙其他人員，就會在谷歌上人為操控這些搜索數據。
As they say in the biz: past performance does not guarantee future results.
正如商界人士經常掛在嘴邊的:過去的表現并不能保證未來的結果。
