亞洲中產階級實力有多大？

幾乎每周，都會有一家公司做出一筆針對亞洲新興中產階級的新投資：銀行、零售商以及消費品制造商紛紛涌入該地區。它們是否會面臨漫長的等待呢？

Almost every week, another company makes a new investment predicated on Asia's emerging middle classes: banks, retailers and consumer goods makers are all piling into the region. Are they in for a long wait?

按照樂觀的預期，答案是否定的。咨詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)預計，到2011年，中國的下層中產階級將增至2.9億人，而到2025年，上層中產階級（即年收入在4,000至12,500美元之間的人）將增至5.2億人。麥肯錫估計，到那個時候，印度的中產階級將有5.83億"付費會員"。在不到20年的時間里，這兩個國家擁有的瘋狂消費者總數，將是美國人口的三倍以上。加在一起，這將是一大筆錢：僅中國的實際可支配收入就高達1.66萬億美元。

Not according to the bullish forecasts. McKinsey expects China's lower middle class to swell to 290m by 2011 and the upper middle class, defined as those earning an annual $4,000-$12,500, to rise to 520m by 2025. By that time, the consultancy estimates, India will have 583m paid-up members of the middle class. In less than two decades, the two countries together will have more than three times as many rabid consumers as the US has citizens. That adds up to a lot of pennies in the till: $1,660bn of disposable income in real terms in China alone.

不過，在這方面還存在幾個障礙--其中一個很明顯的問題是，低收入門檻意味著上述估計可能有些夸大。把衡量對象局限在容易接觸到的消費者，或大城市的消費者，會使得實際數字更低。不管亞洲中產階級的規模有多大，或錢包有多鼓，其自由支配花費仍將只是美國等市場的一小部分。亞洲人很少使用消費信貸。節儉的中國人將家庭收入的三分之一左右存入銀行，而且，只要他們還需要為自己的社會福利掏錢，這種狀況就將持續下去。

There are several drawbacks to this - including the rather salient point that the low earnings threshold means estimates are probably overstated. Restricting the measurement to easily reached consumers, or those in the main cities, crunches the numbers lower still. Regardless of the size of the middle-class, or even their wallets, discretionary spending will remain a fraction of markets like the US. There is very little buying on credit. Thrifty Chinese save about a third of household earnings and will continue to do so as long as they are required to fund their own social welfare.

正如總部位于北京的龍州經訊(Dragonomics Research & Advisory)所指出的，迄今為止，中國人的大部分消費仍集中在基本需求方面--很多亞洲新興國家皆是如此。與此同時，較為富裕的消費者在國內可能不動聲色。舉例而言，印尼企業巨頭可能喜歡在新加坡購買公寓，而中國富人則樂于在香港和米蘭購買名牌貨。中產階級是一個難以定義的群體--在收入差距不斷擴大的新興市場更是如此。

As Beijing-based Dragonomics Research & Advisory points out, by far the bulk of Chinese consumption is focused on the basics - as in much of emerging Asia. Richer consumers, meanwhile, can prove elusive creatures at home. Indonesian tycoons are as likely to buy apartments in Singapore, say, while rich Chinese are as happy buying designer goods in Hong Kong or Milan. Middle classes are a slippery group to define - particularly in emerging markets, when the income gap is widening.