BEC商務考試中多設計商務背景，有專家建議可以精讀 The Ecomomists這樣的英語雜志，這樣對完形填空和改錯都很有幫助。

The world economy

Buckle down

Recovery from the recession, when it comes, will be slow and painful

當經濟從衰退中恢復，進程將緩慢而痛苦

IS THE worst over for the world economy? In recent weeks financial markets have latched on to the “green-shoots” thesis, rising smartly as an array of statistics turned out to be less dire than expected. Policymakers, too, have begun to sound less pessimistic. On April 14th both America’s president, Barack Obama, and its central-bank boss, Ben Bernanke, pointed to signs of progress in stabilising the world’s biggest economy.

世界經濟已經渡過最難階段了么？近幾周來，金融市場抓住“綠色嫩芽”大做文章并明顯有所起色，數據結果顯示經濟不如預期的那么可怕。政策制定者們也開始看起來少了些悲觀，4月14日美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬和美聯儲主席本•伯南克均指出世界最大經濟體——美國經濟已產生回穩信號。

Optimism may be fashionable, but there are plenty of reasons to fear it is premature. The upbeat thesis focuses on firms and their inventories. The global economy slumped at the end of 2008 in part because firms slashed production even faster than demand fell. Now that the stockpiles have shrunk, output should stop slumping. This may be happening. Forward-looking surveys of manufacturers have improved.

樂觀主義也許符合潮流，但仍有很多理由說明這種判斷為時過早。持樂觀觀點的人聚焦于與公司和公司的存貨。2008年底全球經濟下滑的部分原因是由于公司削減產量超出了需求下降速度，而目前存量收縮，產量應能夠阻止經濟下滑。這也許是對的，廠商的前瞻性考慮使得情況有所改善。

The danger, however, is that too much emphasis on the stock cycle misses the underlying characteristics of this downturn. This is mainly a balance-sheet recession precipitated by a financial crisis. And it is a downturn that it is unusually synchronised around the globe.

然而，危險在于對于存貨周期的過度關注導致人們忽略了這次經濟下滑的根本特征：這次下滑主要是由金融危機派生的資產負債表衰退，同時也是異乎尋常的全球性同步衰退。

As an analysis in the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook makes clear, each of these characteristics points to a deep recession and a weak recovery. The fund’s economists examine 122 recessions in rich economies since 1960. They find that in the aftermath of a financial bust, private investment tends to fall even after the downturn reaches its trough, whereas private consumption grows more slowly than in other recoveries. Recoveries from globally synchronised recessions take 50% longer than other recoveries.

正如國際貨幣基金組織“世界經濟展望”中的分析文章所解釋：這些特征表明了經濟的深度衰退和恢復乏力。該組織的經濟學家對1960年后發達經濟體的122次經濟衰退進行了研究，研究結果顯示金融崩潰后，當經濟衰退見底后，私人投資仍將繼續下降，而個人消費與經濟恢復其他特征相比增長更為緩慢。全球同步的經濟衰退恢復相較其他衰退恢復要多用二分之一的時間。

Some green shoots are already wilting. America’s retail sales fell in March. And dark shadows are looming, particularly the spectre of deflation. America’s consumer prices fell by 0.4% in the year to March, the first annual decline since 1955 (see chart). Consumer prices are once again falling in Japan and are barely rising in the euro area.

一些“綠色嫩芽”已經開始枯萎。美國三月份零售業出現下滑，陰影開始蔓延，特別是通縮的兇兆。截至09年3月，美國零售價格降低了0.4%，出現了1955年以來的首次年度下滑。零售價格在日本再次出現下滑，在歐洲也幾乎沒有增長。

No one doubts that a prolonged period of deflation would pose grave dangers. Falling prices would raise the real burden of debts. The prospect of lower prices would weaken demand. But optimists still regard that risk as remote. Today’s deflation, they argue, is nothing more than the temporary consequence of falling fuel costs. Exclude food and fuel and America’s core consumer prices are still rising at 1.8%, within the central bankers’ ideal range and well above the lows reached during America’s last deflation scare in 2002.

沒有人質疑長期的通貨緊縮將導致嚴重風險。價格的持續下降將提升債務負擔，低價格將削弱需求。但樂觀主義者們仍認為這種風險距離遙遠，他們認為今天的通縮只不過是燃料費用下降的暫時結果導致。剔除食物和燃料，美國關鍵零售價格仍上漲了1.8%，這個數字處在美聯儲官員們的理想范圍之內，也高于2002年美國發生通縮恐慌時達到的低點。

This sanguine attitude has evidence to support it. Not only have central bankers opened the monetary floodgates, but American consumers’ expectations for future inflation have barely changed in recent months. Still, there are reasons to fret. Consumer surveys suggest the share of people who expect their incomes to decline is the highest on record. Wholesale-price figures suggest that prices other than energy are falling further down the supply chain. The share of small businesses in America that are cutting workers’ wages has doubled. The Fed’s latest “Beige Book” report on economic conditions suggested downward pressure on prices and wages. Things could yet get a lot grimmer.

這種樂天態度得到了事實支持。美聯儲官員們打開了貨幣泄洪閘，美國消費者們對未來的通脹預期也數月未變。但仍有原因需要顧慮：消費者調查顯示預期收入下降的人口比例有史最高，批發價格圖表顯示除能源類產品，其他產品價格下降遠超供給價格。美國進行減薪的中小企業比例增長一倍。美聯儲最新的“褐皮書”中關于經濟情況的報告中指出存在價格和工資的下行壓力。情況也許會變得更糟。