Direction：

The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.

"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened its own café."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

8The following appeared in a memo from the director of student housing at Buckingham College.

題目講解：

【翻譯】

Monarch書店應該在店內開設一個咖伏以吸引更多的顧客并更好地和最近開設了咖伏的Regal書店展開競爭。Monarch已經在它的店址上經營了20余年，由于其對于各類型圖書選擇的廣泛性而廣為人知，并擁有龐大的消費者群體。開設咖伏顯然能吸引更多的顧客?？Х璧目臻g相對較小?？Х目臻g可以通過撤銷兒童書籍的柜臺來獲得，由于最近的一次全國調查顯示10歲以下兒童在總人口中所占的比例將顯著下降，因而兒童書籍很可能將不再好賣。

【分析】

1. 沒有證據表明開設咖啡廳能夠吸引更多客戶;錯誤類比

2. 此外，這者也沒有足夠理由取消兒童書籍區的存在。

3. 其他因素：作者沒有說明Regal的情況，可能面向的對象不同;也沒有說Regal的咖啡屋是否吸引了更多的顧客

【提綱】

1. R開的咖啡店未必成功。R成功了M也未必成功，樣本差異，應做市場調查。

2. profits。其他方法增強競爭力。

3. 全國人口情況不說明地方情況。即使孩子少了，給孩子的書未必也少。