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Fretting about the youth vote is a Democratic pastime. This year, there are obvious causes.
擔心年輕人的選票是民主黨的消遣。今年，原因顯而易見。
At the top of the ticket, 81-year-old Joe Biden struggles to convey the vitality that his 78-year-old opponent musters.
81歲的喬·拜登位居候選人之首，他努力表現出78歲競選對手所擁有的活力。
Student protesters chanting "Genocide Joe" blame Mr Biden for civilian suffering in Gaza.
高呼“種族滅絕喬”的學生抗議者將加沙平民遭受的苦難歸咎于拜登。
On TikTok, young leftist influencers attract millions of views for videos urging voters to reject him.
在TikTok上，年輕的左翼網紅發布的視頻播放量破百萬，他們呼吁選民拒絕拜登連任。
Tour college campuses, however, and you will find plenty of young voters ready—excited, even—to cast a ballot for Mr Biden.
然而，參觀大學校園，你會發現很多年輕選民已經準備好為拜登投票，甚至很興奮。
"He has been the most progressive president we've ever had," raves Ian Moore, a 20-year-old student executive-board member of the University of Michigan's College Democrats, an arm of the Democratic National Committee.
“他是我們有史以來最進步的總統，”20歲的伊恩·摩爾(Ian Moore)贊嘆道，他是密歇根大學民主黨學院的學生執行委員會成員，該學院是民主黨全國委員會的一個分支。
"Yeah, he's a little older, he's a little less exciting," he acknowledges, "but he gets the job done."
他也承認：“他年紀是大了一點，不那么有活力，但他完成了工作。”
Mr Moore's exuberance may be unusual but his preference for Mr Biden over Donald Trump is not.
摩爾的熱情可能不尋常，但他更喜歡拜登而不是唐納德·特朗普。
Recent findings from YouGov, an online pollster, suggest that across June those aged 18 to 29 prefer the incumbent president to his predecessor by an average of 20 points, just less than the 23-point advantage Mr Biden enjoyed in 2020.
網上民意調查機構輿觀（YouGov）的最新調查結果顯示，平均來看，整個6月份，拜登在18至29歲的選民中領先20個百分點，略低于拜登在2020年領先的23個百分點。
But young voters represent one of the wobbliest legs of the Democratic stool. They have the lowest and most variable turnout rates of all age groups.
但年輕選民是民主黨最不穩定的群體之一。他們的投票率在所有年齡組中最低且變化最大。
And polls suggest that when compared with previous presidential elections, and particularly the last one, young voters are less enthusiastic about voting this time.
民調顯示，與以往的總統選舉相比，尤其是與上一次選舉相比，年輕選民這次的投票熱情較低。
So if Mr Biden is indeed still winning them by a healthy margin, each young voter who stays home hurts him more than Mr Trump.
因此，如果拜登確實仍以相當大的優勢贏得年輕選票，那么每個宅家的年輕選民對他的影響都比特朗普更大。
Young Americans have long been unreliable voters. At most, around half of those eligible cast ballots in presidential-election years. The figure for those aged 45 or older is roughly 70%.
長期以來，年輕的美國人都是不可靠的選民。在總統選舉年，最多只有大約一半的合格選民投了票。45歲或以上人群的投票比例約為70%。
In 2008 Barack Obama—the magnetic youth-whisperer who filled college-football stadiums with supporters—enjoyed a youth-turnout rate of just over 51%.
2008年，貝拉克·奧巴馬的青年投票率略高于51%，這位極具魅力的青年代言人，讓大學橄欖球場擠滿了支持者。
That was a mere two points higher than the percentage who turned out in 2004 for the race between the decidedly less charismatic George W. Bush and John Kerry.
這僅比2004年喬治·沃克·布什和約翰·克里之間的競選投票率高出兩個百分點，當時喬治·沃克·布什的魅力明顯不如約翰·克里。
It was the polarising matchup in 2020 between Messrs Trump and Biden that broke recent records: youth turnout that year reached 54%.
2020年，特朗普和拜登之間的兩極對決打破了近期的紀錄：當年的青年投票率達到了54%。
Expansive covid-era postal and early-voting policies played a role; younger voters are disproportionately likely to mail in their ballots.
在新冠疫情大爆發時，郵政投票和提前投票政策發揮了作用；年輕選民更有可能郵寄選票。
Even so, the youth-turnout rate was still a whopping 18 points less than that of voters 45 and older.
即便如此，青年投票率仍比45歲及以上選民低18個百分點。
And that increase might prove to be short-lived. When the pandemic ended, Republicans restored restrictions on postal and early voting in many states.
而且這種增長可能只是曇花一現。疫情結束后，共和黨在許多州恢復了對郵政投票和提前投票的限制。
And if youth turnout more closely resembles the much lower levels of 2016, Mr Biden would lose around 850,000 votes from his margin over Mr Trump, even if he holds the 23-point advantage he enjoyed last time.
如果年輕人投票率更接近2016年低得多的水平，拜登將比特朗普少85萬張選票，即使他保持上次的23個百分點領先幅度。
Pundits have attributed much of young voters' mix of apathyand disdain for Mr Biden to the war in Gaza.
專家將年輕選民對拜登的冷漠和蔑視歸咎于加沙戰爭。
Half of those under 30 tell pollsters at YouGov that they disapprove of his handling of the conflict.
輿觀的民調顯示，30歲以下的選民中有一半表示，他們不贊成拜登對加沙戰爭的處理方式。
Their views of Mr Biden's performance have soured dramatically since the war's early days in October.
自10月加沙戰爭開始以來，他們對拜登的看法急劇惡化。
And yet the great majority of these unhappy young voters say they still intend to vote for Mr Biden.
然而，這些不滿意的年輕選民中的絕大多數表示，他們仍打算投票給拜登。
