評論
打印
Who would want to own shares in a bank?
誰會想擁有一家銀行的股份呢?
Rising interest rates should have been a blessing, lifting the income they can earn on assets.
利率上升本應是一件好事，因為它提高了他們從資產中獲得的收入。
But a few banks that had lent and invested freely at rock-bottom rates faced runs, which pushed up funding costs for the rest.
但少數以極低利率自由放貸和投資的銀行面臨擠兌，這推高了其余銀行的融資成本。
More may yet fail.
更多的融資可能會失敗。
And new regulations, ominously named Basel 3 “endgame” rules, could raise the capital requirements on some American banks by as much as a quarter if they are introduced in their current form in 2025.
新的法規，被不祥地命名為巴塞爾協議3“終局”規則，如果在2025年以目前的形式實施，對一些美國銀行的資本要求可能會提高多達四分之一。
This would scupper any chance that shareholders can be paid much out of profits, perhaps for years.
這將破壞股東從利潤中獲得豐厚回報的機會，這種情況可能會持續數年。
Nasty stuff.
令人不快的東西。
Indeed, the KBW index of large American bank stocks has shed 15% this year, even as American stocks have risen by 19%.
事實上，美國大型銀行股的KBW指數今年下跌了15%，盡管美國股市上漲了19%。
This underperformance, after a decade of mediocrity, means that banks now make up less than 5% of the S&P 500 index of large American firms.
在十年的平庸之后，這種不佳的表現意味著銀行現在在美國大型公司的標準普爾500指數中所占的比例不到5%。
Blackstone, a private-markets giant, has a market capitalisation 20% bigger than that of Goldman Sachs.
私人市場巨頭黑石集團的市值比高盛集團高出20%。
Just about any measure of valuation shows banks to be at or near an all-time low.
幾乎任何估值指標都顯示，銀行股處于或接近歷史低點。
Yet being cheap is not the same as being a bargain.
然而，便宜并不等同于便宜貨。
Banks are not startups selling a growth story.
銀行不是兜售發展故事的初創公司。
Nor are they tech firms building innovative new products.
它們也不是制造創新產品的科技公司。
Banking is a mature business; its fortunes are closely tied to the macroeconomic environment.
銀行業是一項成熟的業務; 它的命運與宏觀經濟環境密切相關。
Investors therefore look for institutions where profits or earnings might grow in the near future and where those profits may be returned to investors via dividends or buy-backs.
因此，投資者尋找的是，可能在不久的將來迎來利潤或收益增長的機構，這些利潤可能通過股息或回購返還給投資者。
On neither front do American banks look appealing.
在這兩個方面，美國銀行看起來都沒有吸引力。
Net interest income, a measure of the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and that which they pay out on deposits, seems to have peaked.
凈利息收入(衡量銀行從貸款中賺取的利息與支付給存款的利息之間的差額)似乎已經見頂。
Although rising rates boost income, the climb in funding costs has eaten into this.
盡管利率上升會增加收入，但融資成本的攀升已經侵蝕了這一點。
Customers fled regional banks following collapses earlier in the year and have moved away from all banks in favour of money-market funds, which offer higher low-risk returns.
在今年早些時候銀行倒閉后，客戶紛紛逃離地區性銀行，并從所有銀行撤出資金，轉而青睞提供低風險高回報的貨幣市場基金。
Even in the best-case scenario for America’s banks—a “soft landing” or “no landing” at all, in which there is no recession, few loan defaults and interest rates do not come down much—earnings would probably remain only around their present levels.
即使在美國銀行最好的情況下——“軟著陸”或“不著陸”，即沒有經濟衰退，很少有貸款違約，利率也不會大幅下降——收益也可能只會維持在目前的水平。
