評(píng)論
打印
Also, their government debt loads, generally averaging less than 50% of GDP,
此外，他們的政府債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)平均不到GDP的50%，
are far less burdensome than those of many major economies, including Japan (253%) and the United Kingdom (85%).
遠(yuǎn)低于許多主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的負(fù)擔(dān)，包括日本（253%）和英國（85%）。
And emerging markets hold 80% of the world's people.
新興市場擁有全球80%的人口。
Both Research Affiliates and GMO predict far higher future returns in emerging markets compared with U.S. stocks, despite the volatility.
盡管市場波動(dòng)較大，但銳聯(lián)資產(chǎn)管理和GMO均預(yù)測新興市場的未來回報(bào)遠(yuǎn)高于美國股市。
Both point to a gap in valuations that's unjustified by fundamentals.
兩者都表明，估值差距并不符合基本原理。
The best measure, they say, is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, developed by Yale economist Robert Shiller.
他們說，最好的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是周期性地調(diào)整市盈率，即由耶魯大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Robert Shiller提出的CAPE。
It uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings as the denominator, correcting for temporary peaks and valleys in earnings.
其使用經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的10年平均收益作為分母，對(duì)收益的暫時(shí)峰值和低谷進(jìn)行修正。
Today, the CAPE for the S&P 500 stands at 31.1, vs. 12.5 for emerging markets.
如今，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的CAPE為31.1，而新興市場的CAPE為12.5。
"That means emerging-market stocks are 60% cheaper than U.S. stocks," says Arnott.
“這意味著新興市場股票比美國股票便宜60%，”Arnott說到。
Earnings growth of 3.8% in emerging markets is just a bit better than in the U.S., says Research Associates.
新興市場3.8%的收入增幅僅略高于美國，Research Affiliates說到。
In part, that's because big companies headquartered in those countries face competitive factors similar to those of the U.S. and European giants.
這在一定程度上是因?yàn)榭偛课挥谶@些國家的大公司面臨著與歐美巨頭類似的競爭因素。
But dividend yields of 3.1% are well above the 1.9% offered by the U.S. benchmark S&P 500. (Yields reflect dividends as a percentage of prices.)
但3.1%的股息收益率遠(yuǎn)高于美國基準(zhǔn)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)1.9%的收益率。（收益率反映股息占價(jià)格的百分比。）
Then there's the lure that so many emerging-market stocks are so darn cheap.
還有一個(gè)誘惑是，許多新興市場股票都非常便宜。
Rising valuations, says Brightman of Research Affiliates, should add another 1% a year.
Research Affiliates的Brightman表示，不斷上升的估值應(yīng)該每年再增加1%。
Add all the components, and emerging-market stocks should return around 10% annually over the next decade.
所有因素加在一起，在未來十年內(nèi)，新興市場股票的年回報(bào)率應(yīng)該約為10%。
Research Affiliates' forecast for the U.S.: 2.6%. GMO is less optimistic but believes a 5.2% annual return is probable.
Research Affiliates對(duì)美股的預(yù)測為2.6%。GMO就沒那么樂觀，但也認(rèn)為5.2%的年回報(bào)率是有可能的。
Still, it thinks U.S. stocks, hit by a steady contraction in valuations, will fare miserably, saddling investors with average annual losses of 3.2% through 2025.
但其認(rèn)為，受到估值持續(xù)縮水的打擊，美股表現(xiàn)將會(huì)很糟糕，到2025年，投資者將承受3.2%的平均年跌幅。
Those rich emerging-market returns come at a price—a performance chart that careens from sharp spikes to jolting drops.
新興市場豐厚的回報(bào)是需要付出代價(jià)的——一張從飆升到暴跌的表現(xiàn)圖。
According to Research Affiliates, emerging-market stocks are 50% more volatile than U.S. equities.
根據(jù)Research Affiliates，新興市場股市波動(dòng)性比美國股市高出50%。
In two-thirds of all the months you own them, you can expect 6% swings to be normal. That's a lot of lurching around.
在你持有這些股票的三分二的時(shí)間里，你可以預(yù)計(jì)6%的波動(dòng)是正常的。周圍顛簸重重
Thorndike of GMO explains why braving the roller coaster is worth it.
GMO的Thorndike解釋了為什么冒險(xiǎn)坐過山車是值得的。
"The great thing about cheap," he says, "is that as an investor, you don't need anything great to happen.
“便宜的好處，”他說，“就是作為投資者，你不需要什么好事情發(fā)生?！?/div>
You just need a lot of bad things not to happen."
你只需要不發(fā)生太多壞事就行了。”
It's possible that this basket of stocks will get worse before it gets better, so you need to take the long view.
這一攬子股票有可能在好轉(zhuǎn)之前變得更糟，所以你需要看得長遠(yuǎn)。
When pessimism is much too high, and prices are much too low, that's the perfect time to pounce.
當(dāng)悲觀情緒過高，且價(jià)格過低時(shí)，就是出擊的最佳時(shí)機(jī)。
譯文由可可原創(chuàng)，僅供學(xué)習(xí)交流使用，未經(jīng)許可請(qǐng)勿轉(zhuǎn)載。
