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From early 2011 to the start of 2016, equities tumbled 40%, measured in dollars.
從2011年早期到2016年年初，按美元計算，股市暴跌了40%。
For U.S. investors, returns comprise two moving parts:
對于美國投資者來說，回報率包括兩個變化的部分：
the trajectory of stock prices in local currencies and the exchange rate measuring the dollars the Chinese yuan or Brazilian real buys.
以本國貨幣計算的股價軌跡，以及衡量人民幣或巴西雷亞爾兌美元的匯率。
A drop in exchange rates helped fuel the half-decade decline,
匯率下跌助長了長達五年的跌勢，
a reversal in their currencies' fortunes fueled the 85% explosion starting in 2016,
始于2016年的貨幣財富逆轉推動了85%爆炸式增長，
and another currency drop accounted for around one-third of the 20%-plus market decline from the heights in January.
市場從1月份的高點下跌了20%多，其中約三分之一是由于貨幣再次貶值造成的。
Emerging-market bulls rate the sectors risks to be greatly exaggerated.
看好新興市場的人認為該行業的風險被嚴重夸大了。
For a disastrous spiral to take hold, a nation must be battling three negatives:
出現這種螺旋式上升，一個國家必須與三個負面因素斗爭：
huge foreign (usually dollar) debt, a dearth of foreign reserves, and a trade deficit.
巨大的外債（通常是美元），缺乏外匯儲備以及貿易逆差。
In fact, only three countries face the full trio of headwinds: Argentina, Turkey, and Indonesia.
實際上，僅有三個國家面臨著這三重逆風：阿根廷、土耳其以及印度尼西亞。
According to an analysis by Research Affiliates, all three carry heavy dollar debt, and Argentina and Turkey are grappling with full-on crises.
根據銳聯資產管理公司的分析，這三個國家都背負著沉重的美元債務，阿根廷和土耳其正在全力應對全面危機。
This year it took a $50 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund to arrest the collapse in the Argentine peso,
今年，其從國際貨幣基金組織獲得了500億美元的救助，以組織阿根廷比索崩潰，
and the country's central bank has hiked lending rates to 65%.
并且該國的中央銀行將貸款利率大幅提升至65%。
Turkey's economy isn't in free fall, but it faces high inflation and a big balance of payment deficits.
土耳其的經濟并不是處于自由落體狀態，而是面臨著高膨脹，且國際收支逆差大。
Relatively strong economic growth has enabled Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah by hiking rates to 5.75%.
相對強健的經濟增長使印度尼西亞能夠通過將利率提升至5.75%來穩定盧比。
Brazil and South Africa also merit concerns, if not as severe as the other three.
巴西和南非也值得關注，如果情況不像其他三個那么嚴重的話。
They have medium-size dollar debt loads and carry trade deficits that force them to borrow dollars.
他們的美元債務規模中等，并背負著迫使他們借入美元的貿易赤字。
"They're both flashing yellow," says Chris Brightman, chief investment officer for Research Affiliates.
“他們都需要謹慎，”銳聯資產管理公司首席投資官Chris Brightman表示。
"But they also have large foreign reserves. And Brazil is finally emerging from a deep recession,
“但他們也都擁有大量外匯儲備。并且巴西最終擺脫了嚴重的經濟衰退，
while South Africa is lowering rates to restart growth."
而南非正在降低利率以恢復經濟增長。
Argentina now rates high enough on "developed" metrics that it's not in the MSCI index, but as a past debt-crisis sufferer,
根據“發達”衡量標準（該指標不在MSCI指數中），阿根廷目前的利率已經足夠高，但作為一個經歷過債務危機的國家，
it still has the potential to stoke investor concerns about other emerging markets.
它仍有可能引發投資者對其他新興市場的擔憂。
Put simply, the threat of a funding crisis in the nations that dominate the emerging-market index is minimal.
簡而言之，在新興市場指數中占主導地位的國家發生融資危機的威脅很小。
"The Southeast Asian nations have not binged on dollar debt," says George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank.
“東南亞國家沒有在美元債務中放縱，”Key Private Bank的首席投資官George Mateyo說到。
"They took their pain 20 years ago, and now all of emerging markets have been penalized with a broad brush."
“他們在20年前就經歷過痛苦，現在所以新興市場都受到了嚴厲的懲罰。”
What's more, even when emerging-market economies slow, they still grow faster than their grind-it-out, mature-economy counterparts.
此外，即使當新興市場經濟放緩，他們的增長速度仍然比那些已經筋疲力盡的成熟經濟體要快。
Despite the downgrade, the IMF still expects developing economies to expand at 4.7% next year.
盡管降級，IMF仍然預計發展中經濟體明年將以4.7%的速度增長。
The developed world is heading in the opposite direction.
發達國家正朝著反方向前進。
The agency forecasts that GDP expansion in the industrialized world will decline from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.1% next year.
該機構預計工業化世界的GDP擴張將從2018年的2.4%降至明年的2.1%。
"Keep in mind that the U.S. is in the 10th year of an economic up cycle, and emerging markets are in the second year,"
“要記住美國正處于經濟上升周期的第10個年頭，并且新興市場在第二個年頭，”
notes Chuck Knudsen, a portfolio specialist at T. Rowe Price.
T. Rowe Price的投資組合專家Chuck Knudsen指出。
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