評論
打印
Alright, reality check: Are we going to get AGI any time soon?
好了，回歸現實：我們很快就會有AGI嗎？
Some famous AI researchers, like Rodney Brooks, think it won't happen for hundreds of years.
一些著名的AI研究者，如羅德尼·布魯克斯，認為一百年內是沒有可能的。
But others, like Google DeepMind founder Demis Hassabis, are more optimistic and are working to try to make it happen much sooner.
但是其他人，如谷歌DeepMind公司的創始人德米斯·哈薩比斯，就比較樂觀，且努力想要它盡早實現。
And recent surveys have shown that most AI researchers actually share Demis's optimism,
近期的調查顯示，大部分的人工智能研究者其實都和德米斯一樣持樂觀態度，
expecting that we will get AGI within decades, so within the lifetime of many of us, which begs the question -- and then what?
預期我們十年內就會有AGI，所以我們中許多人在有生之年就能看到，這就讓人不禁想問，那么接下來呢？
What do we want the role of humans to be if machines can do everything better and cheaper than us?
如果什么事情機器都能做得比人好，成本也更低，那么人類又該扮演怎樣的角色？
The way I see it, we face a choice. One option is to be complacent.
依我所見，我們面臨一個選擇。選擇之一是要自我滿足。
We can say, "Oh, let's just build machines that can do everything we can do and not worry about the consequences.
我們可以說，“我們來建造機器，讓它來幫助我們做一切事情，不要擔心后果。
Come on, if we build technology that makes all humans obsolete, what could possibly go wrong?"
拜托，如果我們能打造出讓全人類都被淘汰的機器，還有什么會出錯嗎？”
But I think that would be embarrassingly lame. I think we should be more ambitious -- in the spirit of TED.
但我覺得那樣真是差勁到悲哀。我們認為我們應該更有野心--帶著TED的精神。
Let's envision a truly inspiring high-tech future and try to steer towards it.
讓我們來想象一個真正鼓舞人心的高科技未來，并試著朝著它前進。
This brings us to the second part of our rocket metaphor: the steering.
這就把我們帶到了火箭比喻的第二部分：操控。
We're making AI more powerful, but how can we steer towards a future where AI helps humanity flourish rather than flounder?
我們讓人工智能的力量更強大，但是我們要如何朝著人工智能幫助人類未來更加繁盛，而非變得掙扎的目標不斷前進呢？
To help with this, I cofounded the Future of Life Institute.
為了協助實現它，我聯合創辦了“未來生命研究所”。
It's a small nonprofit promoting beneficial technology use,
它是個小型的非營利機構，旨在促進有益的科技使用，
and our goal is simply for the future of life to exist and to be as inspiring as possible.
我們的目標很簡單，就是希望生命的未來能夠存在，且越是鼓舞人心越好。
You know, I love technology. Technology is why today is better than the Stone Age.
你們知道的，我愛科技。現今之所以比石器時代更好，就是因為科技。
And I'm optimistic that we can create a really inspiring high-tech future... if -- and this is a big if
我很樂觀的認為我們能創造出一個非常鼓舞人心的高科技未來...如果，這個“如果”很重要，
if we win the wisdom race -- the race between the growing power of our technology and the growing wisdom with which we manage it.
如果我們能贏得這場關于智慧的賽跑--這場賽跑的兩位競爭者便是我們不斷成長的科技力量以及我們用來管理科技的不斷成長的智慧。
But this is going to require a change of strategy because our old strategy has been learning from mistakes.
但這也需要策略上的改變。因為我們以往的策略往往都是從錯誤中學習的。
We invented fire, screwed up a bunch of times -- invented the fire extinguisher.
我們發明了火，因為搞砸了很多次--我們發明出了滅火器。
