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So all this amazing recent progress in AI really begs the question: How far will it go?
所以近來，這些驚人的人工智能進(jìn)步讓大家不禁想問：它到底能達(dá)到怎樣的程度？
I like to think about this question in terms of this abstract landscape of tasks,
我在思考這個(gè)問題時(shí)，想從工作任務(wù)中的抽象地景來切入，
where the elevation represents how hard it is for AI to do each task at human level,
圖中的海拔高度表示人工智能要把每一項(xiàng)工作做到人類的水平的難度，
and the sea level represents what AI can do today.
海平面表示現(xiàn)今的人工智能所達(dá)到的水平。
The sea level is rising as AI improves, so there's a kind of global warming going on here in the task landscape.
隨著人工智能的進(jìn)步，海平面會上升，所以在這工作任務(wù)地景上，有著類似全球變暖的后果。
And the obvious takeaway is to avoid careers at the waterfront -- which will soon be automated and disrupted.
很顯然，我們要避免從事那些近海區(qū)的工作--這些工作不會一直由人來完成，遲早要被自動化取代。
But there's a much bigger question as well. How high will the water end up rising?
然而同時(shí)，還存在一個(gè)很大的問題，水平面最后會升到多高？
Will it eventually rise to flood everything, matching human intelligence at all tasks.
它最后是否會升高到淹沒一切，人工智能會不會最終能勝任所有的工作？
This is the definition of artificial general intelligence -- AGI, which has been the holy grail of AI research since its inception.
這就成了通用人工智能--縮寫是AGI，從一開始它就是人工智能研究最終的圣杯。
By this definition, people who say, "Ah, there will always be jobs that humans can do better than machines,"
根據(jù)這個(gè)定義，有人說，“總是有些工作，人類可以做得比機(jī)器好的?！?/div>
are simply saying that we'll never get AGI.
意思就是，我們永遠(yuǎn)不會有AGI。
Sure, we might still choose to have some human jobs or to give humans income and purpose with our jobs,
當(dāng)然，我們可以仍然保留一些人類的工作，或者說，通過我們的工作帶給人類收入和生活目標(biāo)，
but AGI will in any case transform life as we know it with humans no longer being the most intelligent.
但是不論如何，AGI都會轉(zhuǎn)變我們對生命的認(rèn)知，人類或許不再是最有智慧的了。
Now, if the water level does reach AGI, then further AI progress will be driven mainly not by humans but by AI,
如果海平面真的上升到AGI的高度，那么進(jìn)一步的人工智能進(jìn)展將會由人工智能來引領(lǐng)，而非人類，
which means that there's a possibility that further AI progress could be way faster than the typical human research and development timescale of years,
那就意味著有可能，進(jìn)一步提升人工智能水平將會進(jìn)行得非常迅速，甚至超越用年份來計(jì)算時(shí)間的典型人類研究和發(fā)展，
raising the controversial possibility of an intelligence explosion
提高到一種極具爭議性的可能性，那就是智能爆炸，
where recursively self-improving AI rapidly leaves human intelligence far behind, creating what's known as superintelligence.
即能夠不斷做自我改進(jìn)的人工智能很快就會遙遙領(lǐng)先人類，創(chuàng)造出所謂的超級人工智能。
