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【草稿】經(jīng)濟學人:計算機——宇宙的主人(1)

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The job of capital marketsis to process information so that savings flow to the best projects and firms.That makes high finance sound simple; in reality it is dynamic andintoxicating. It reflects a changing world. Today’s markets, for instance, are grapplingwith a trade war and low interest rates. But it also reflects changes withinfinance, which constantly reinvents itself in a perpetual struggle to gain acompetitive edge. As our Briefing reports, the latest revolution is in fullswing. Machines are taking control of investing—not just the humdrum buying andselling of securities, but also the commanding heights of monitoring theeconomy and allocating capital.

資本市場的工作是處理信息,使儲蓄流向最好的項目和公司。這使得高級金融聽起來很簡單;實際上,它是動態(tài)的,令人陶醉的。它反映了一個不斷變化的世界。例如,如今的市場正努力應對貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和低利率。但它也反映了金融內(nèi)部的變化,在不斷的競爭中不斷重塑自己,以獲得競爭優(yōu)勢。正如我們的簡報所報道的,最新的革命正在全面展開。機器正在控制投資——不僅僅是單調(diào)的證券買賣,也是監(jiān)管經(jīng)濟和資本配置的制高點。

Funds run by computersthat follow rules set by humans account for 35% of America’s stockmarket, 60%of institutional equity assets and 60% of trading activity. Newartificial-intelligence programs are also writing their own investing rules, inways their human masters only partly understand. Industries from pizza-deliveryto Hollywood are being changed by technology, but finance is unique because itcan exert voting power over firms, redistribute wealth and cause mayhem in theeconomy.

由遵循人類規(guī)則的計算機運行的基金占美國股市的35%,機構(gòu)股票資產(chǎn)的60%,交易活動的60%。新的人工智能程序也在以人類主人只能部分理解的方式,編寫自己的投資規(guī)則。從披薩外賣到好萊塢的各個行業(yè)都在被技術(shù)所改變,但金融業(yè)是獨一無二的,因為它可以對企業(yè)施加投票權(quán),重新分配財富,并在經(jīng)濟中造成混亂。

The climate issue4.jpg

The obvious fix will be unpalatable to many. The UN’s climate talks treat 193 countries as equals, providing a forum in which all are heard. But three-quarters of emissions come from just 12 economies. In some of those, including the United States, it is possible to imagine younger voters in liberal democracies demanding a political realignment on climate issues—and a new interest in getting others to join in. For a club composed of a dozen great and middling-but-mucky powers to thrash out a “minilateral” deal would leave billions excluded from questions that could shape their destiny; the participants would need new systems of trade preference and other threats and bribes to keep each other in line. But they might break the impasse, pushing enough of the world onto a steeper mitigation trajectory to benefit all—and be widely emulated.

顯而易見的解決方案將讓許多人感到不快。聯(lián)合國氣候談判平等對待193個國家,提供了一個所有國家都能發(fā)聲的論壇。但四分之三的排放量僅來自12個經(jīng)濟體。在其中一些國家,包括美國,可以想象自由民主國家的年輕選民要求在氣候問題上進行政治重組,并希望其他人也加入進來。對于一個由十幾個偉大的、中等但不太體面的大國組成的俱樂部來說,敲定一項“小范圍”協(xié)議將使數(shù)十億人被排除在可能決定他們命運的問題之外;參與者將需要新的貿(mào)易優(yōu)惠制度、其他威脅和賄賂,以保持彼此一致。但他們可能會打破僵局,將世界上足夠多的國家推向一個更陡峭的減排軌道,使所有國家受益——并被廣泛效仿。
The damage that climate change will end up doing depends on the human response over the next few decades. Many activists on the left cannot imagine today’s liberal democracies responding to the challenge on an adequate scale. They call for new limits to the pursuit of individual prosperity and sweeping government control over investment—strictures some of them would welcome under any circumstances. Meanwhile, on the right, some look away from the incipient disaster in an I’m-alright-Jack way and so ignore their duties to the bulk of humanity.
氣候變化最終造成的破壞將取決于未來幾十年人類的反應。許多左翼活動人士無法想象,今天的自由民主國家會以適當?shù)囊?guī)模應對這一挑戰(zhàn)。他們呼吁對追求個人繁榮進行新的限制,并要求政府對投資限制進行全面控制。與此同時,在右翼,一些人以一種“我還好吧”的方式把目光從剛剛開始的災難上移開,因此忽視了他們對人類的責任。
If the spirit of enterprise that first tapped the power of fossil fuels in the Industrial Revolution is to survive, the states in which it has most prospered must prove those attitudes wrong. They must be willing to transform the machinery of the world economy without giving up on the values out of which that economy was born. Some claim that capitalism’s love of growth inevitably pits it against a stable climate. This newspaper believes them wrong. But climate change could nonetheless be the death knell for economic freedom, along with much else. If capitalism is to hold its place, it must up its game.
如果在工業(yè)革命中率先利用化石燃料的企業(yè)精神要生存下去,那么,在化石燃料最繁榮的國家,必須證明這些態(tài)度是錯誤的。他們必須愿意改革世界經(jīng)濟的機制,而不放棄產(chǎn)生這種經(jīng)濟的價值觀念。一些人聲稱,資本主義對增長的熱愛不可避免地使其與穩(wěn)定的氣候相矛盾。本刊認為他們是錯的。然而,氣候變化可能是經(jīng)濟自由的喪鐘,還有許多其他因素。如果資本主義想要站穩(wěn)腳跟,就必須堅持下去。

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