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Sometimes things don't turn out the way you expect them to.
有時候事情并非你想象的那樣。
Maybe you're excited all month for Christmas and then the day was just ... okay.
也許你整個月都興奮著圣誕節的到來，然后這一天……好吧。
Like, not bad, but not mind-blowingly amazing.
還不錯，但沒有你想象的那么驚喜。
Or you spend a week dreading that shot you have to get, and then it's not even a big deal.
或者你花了一個星期的時間去擔心的事情，最后發現這甚至不是什么大不了的事情。
We tend to be pretty bad at predicting how we'll feel about the results of our plans and decisions—it's what psychologists call affective forecasting.
我們對計劃、決定的最終感受往往不如我們預測的那樣——這就是心理學家所說的情感預測。
And yet we make major life choices, like who to marry, where to live, and what job to take, all based on what we think is going to make us happy.
然而，我們在生活中做出重大的選擇，比如嫁給誰，住在哪里，做什么工作，這些都是基于我們認為的讓我們快樂的事情。
But if you do find yourself facing an uncertain future, there might be some strategies you can use to make your predictions a little better.
但是，如果你發現自己面對著一個不確定的未來，也許有一些策略可以幫助你更好地預測。
We generally have a good sense of whether something will be good or bad for us overall.
我們通常能很好地意識到某件事從整體上對我們來說是好是壞。
Like, no one is suddenly surprised to discover that their colonoscopy was "a thrilling adventure, so can you please schedule another for me."
就像，人們不會突然驚訝地發現，結腸鏡檢查是“一次激動人心的冒險，所以你能幫我再安排一次嗎?”
But people regularly make mistakes about how good or bad something will be, and how much of a lasting impression it will leave on their lives.
但是人們經常會犯一些錯誤，比如某件事情會有多好或多壞，給他們的生活留下的印象有多持久。
Take, for example, breaking up with a romantic partner.
舉個例子，和一個浪漫的伴侶分手。
Most of the time, it's a sad and stressful experience, but people are bad at guessing how awful they'll actually feel.
大多數時候，你會感到悲傷和壓力，但是人們不善于猜測自己的真實感受有多糟糕。
In one study, researchers recruited 69 college freshmen who were all in relationships and then tracked them for nine months.
在一項研究中，研究人員招募了69名戀愛中的大學新生，并對他們進行了為期9個月的跟蹤調查。
By the end of the study, 26 of them had broken up with their partners.
研究結束時，其中26對情侶已經分手。
The team found that before the breakup, people had a good sense of how quickly they'd get over it,
研究小組發現，分手前，人們很清楚自己能多快從失戀中走出來，
but were bad at guessing how they'd feel immediately following the breakup.
但不善于猜測分手后的感受。
Turns out it wasn't as bad as they thought it would be.
最后證明，結果并沒有他們想象的那么糟。
But what's weirder is that reporting being in love in the relationship made their guesses worse.
但更奇怪的是，在戀愛報告中，他們的猜測更糟糕。
Being in love made people think the breakup would be much more devastating, but it wasn't as distressing as they predicted.
戀愛中的人覺得分手會是毀滅性的打擊，但實際并沒有他們預想的那么痛苦。
That's called the impact bias, and it often shows up in studies on affective forecasting.
這就是影響偏差，情感預測的研究中經常出現這種情況。
We predict that experiences will be much more intense than they actually turn out to be:
我們預測的會比實際發生的要強烈得多：
good things will be ecstatic, bad things will be traumatic.
好事會讓人狂喜，壞事會讓人痛苦。
The kind of narrative you can construct around the event might also be a factor.
圍繞這一事件的敘事方式也可能是一個因素。
For example, one study had 91 people go through a job interview,
例如，一項研究讓91人參加面試，
where they were told the outcome would be determined by either a single person or by a panel of people.
這些人被告知結果將由一個人或一組人決定。
They also made predictions of how they'd feel about not getting the job, and reported how they felt after being rejected—
他們還預測了得不到這份工作的感受，并就被拒絕之后的感受做了研究。
which all of them were, given that it was secretly a fake interview.
這些面試背地里是假的。
People's reported happiness was lower when they were interviewed by a panel than when a single person made the decision,
人們在接受小組訪問時的幸福感比單獨做決定時的幸福感要低。
which makes sense from an outside perspective.
從外部視角來看，這是有道理的。
It's easy to put a positive spin on it when there's a single person who can't see how great you are, compared to a whole panel.
和整組人相比，當一個人看不到你有多好的時候，你很容易就會往積極方面去想。
But the subjects couldn't predict that difference.
但受試者無法預測這種差異。
They all guessed they'd feel about equally bad.
他們都認為感覺同樣糟糕。
One reason we're so bad at guessing our own future emotions is what's known as the focusing illusion.
我們之所以不善于猜測自己未來的情緒，原因之一就是所謂的“聚焦錯覺”。
It describes the idea that, to quote one of the researchers who coined the term, "nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it."
它描述了這樣一種觀點，用研究人員的話來說，“思考一件事時，你的想法要比生活中的事情更重要。”
Your current context matters a lot when thinking about the future.
當你思考未來時，當前的環境很重要。
For example, when people try to predict how they'll feel if they break up with their partner or if they get a bad grade,
例如，當人們試圖預測如果他們和伴侶分手或者他們的成績不好，他們會有什么感覺時，
they focus on those "if"s, but ignore all the other stuff that will be going on in their lives at the same time.
他們只關注那些“如果”的情況，而忽略了生活中同時發生的其他事情。
And some studies have found that when you help people think about how life's going to go back to normal by reminding them about all the other experiences they'll have after the event, their predictions get better.
一些研究發現，當通過提醒該事之后的其它經歷來幫助人們思考如何回歸正常生活時，他們的預測效果會好一些。
There are also ways you can re-calibrate your own emotional barometer to get a better sense of what your future experiences will be like.
還有一些方法可以讓你重新校準自己的情緒，以便更好地了解你的未來。
One option is to use what psychologists call surrogates; and ask someone who is currently experiencing whatever you are considering.
一種選擇是使用心理學家所說的代理人，問問那些正在經歷你正在考慮事情的人。
People tend to dislike using other people's reports to decide how they themselves will feel,
人們往往不喜歡因為別人的話來決定自己的感受，
because they usually think other people's preferences and experiences are more different from their own than they actually are.
因為他們通常認為別人的喜好和經歷與自己的更不一樣。
But in studies, when people do learn about other people's experiences, their own predictions generally improve.
但在研究中，當人們了解到其他人的經歷時，他們自己的預測效果通常會有所改善。
For example, researchers had 220 volunteers make predictions about how they'd feel when watching a funny video and trying a new food.
例如，研究人員讓220名志愿者預測他們在觀看一段有趣的視頻并嘗試一種新食物時的感受。
Some subjects were given a report from either a friend or stranger about how much the other person liked it, while others just guessed without outside information.
一些受試者從朋友或陌生人那里得到一份關于對方有多喜歡，而另一些受試者只是在沒有外界信息的情況下猜測。
And it seemed like having the information from another person, whether they were a friend or a stranger, made people's predictions better.
似乎從另一個人那里得到的信息，不管是朋友還是陌生人，都能讓人們的預測更準確。
Of course, a strategy that works for funny videos and new foods might not translate to more important or controversial decisions.
當然，此策略只適用于搞笑視頻和新食物，可能并不適用更重要或更具爭議的決定。
And I'm definitely not telling you to go ask a random stranger whether you should marry your girlfriend or become a lawyer and do whatever they say.
我絕對不是讓你隨便去問一個陌生人，你是應該娶你的女朋友，還是成為一名律師，然后照他們說的去做。
I don't think the ethics boards have approved that particular avenue of research yet.
我認為倫理委員會還沒有批準這一研究的特定途徑。
But it might help to keep all this in mind the next time you're worried about the future.
但是當你下次擔心未來的時候，記住這些策略可能會有所幫助。
Chances are, even if things go wrong, it won't be as bad as you expect.
可能，即使事情出了差錯，也不會像你想的那么糟糕。
And when you're feeling like a giant ball of anxiety, that can be kind of comforting.
當焦慮情緒無法排解時，這可能會是一種安慰。
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow Psych!
感謝收看本期心理科學秀！
And thanks especially to our Patreon community for their support.
特別感謝Patreon對本節目的支持。
It's because of you that we were able to create this channel in the first place.
正是因為有了你們，才有我們的節目。
If you're not yet a patron and want to help us continue providing free science education for anyone who wants to learn, check us out at patreon.com/scishow.
如果你想幫助我們繼續為任何想學習的人提供免費的科學教育，請登錄patreon.com/scishow。
