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It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter, because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone.
我們要知道這個進程的速度并不重要，因為任何進程都足夠讓我們走進死胡同。
We don't need Moore's law to continue. We don't need exponential progress. We just need to keep going.
甚至不需要考慮摩爾定律，也不需要用指數函數來衡量，這一切順其自然都會發生。
The second assumption is that we will keep going.
第二個假設是，我們會一直創新。
We will continue to improve our intelligent machines.
我們會繼續改進我們的智能機器。
And given the value of intelligence -- I mean, intelligence is either the source of everything we value or we need it to safeguard everything we value.
由于智慧的價值就是--提供我們所珍愛的事物，或是用于保護我們所珍視的一切。
It is our most valuable resource. So we want to do this. We have problems that we desperately need to solve.
智慧就是我們最有價值的資源。所以我們想繼續革新它。因為我們有很多需要迫切解決的問題。
We want to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer. We want to understand economic systems.
我們想要治愈像阿茲海默癥和癌癥這樣的疾病，我們想要了解經濟系統。
We want to improve our climate science. So we will do this, if we can.
我們想要改善我們的氣候科學，所以只要可能，我們就會將革新繼續下去。
The train is already out of the station, and there's no brake to pull.
而且革新的列車早已駛出，車上卻沒有剎車。
Finally, we don't stand on a peak of intelligence, or anywhere near it, likely. And this really is the crucial insight.
第三種假設是：人類沒有登上智慧的巔峰，甚至連接近可能都談不上。這個想法十分關鍵。
This is what makes our situation so precarious, and this is what makes our intuitions about risk so unreliable.
這就是為什么我們所處的環境是很危險的，這也是為什么我們對風險的直覺是不可靠的。
Now, just consider the smartest person who has ever lived.
現在，請大家想一下誰是世界上最聰明的人。
On almost everyone's shortlist here is John von Neumann.
幾乎每個人的候選名單里都會有約翰·馮·諾伊曼。
I mean, the impression that von Neumann made on the people around him,
馮·諾伊曼留給周圍人的印象就是
and this included the greatest mathematicians and physicists of his time, is fairly well-documented.
他是那個時代當中最杰出的數學家和物理學家，這些都是完好的記錄在案的。
If only half the stories about him are half true, there's no question he's one of the smartest people who has ever lived.
即使他的故事里有一半是假的，都沒有人會質疑他仍然是世界上最聰明的人之一。
So consider the spectrum of intelligence. Here we have John von Neumann.
那么，讓我們來看看智慧譜線吧?，F在我們有了約翰·馮·諾伊曼。
And then we have you and me. And then we have a chicken.
還有我們大家。另外還有一只雞。
