評論
打印
Europe Russia’s president
歐洲 俄羅斯總統
Alone at the top
高處不勝寒
All this feeds a sense of uncertainty, with the Moscow political elite “disoriented,” according to Mr Petrov. Investigative files on the two defence cases have existed for years, only to resurface now. Are the rules changing? What could be unearthed tomorrow, and against whom? At the same time, the mood of rudderless leadership has been worsened by questions over Mr Putin’s health.
據彼得羅夫所言，莫斯科的政治精英們“迷失了方向”，所有這一切增加了迷茫的感覺。國防部的兩個腐敗案例的調查卷宗已然存在好多年了，只不過現在是重新露面而已。是規則在發生變化嗎？明天會揭露出什么？會針對誰呢？與此同時，對于普京總統健康問題的疑問使人們“領導缺乏領頭人”的情緒更加惡化。
For much of October and November, Mr Putin worked at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, rarely going to the Kremlin and cancelling foreign trips to Bulgaria, India and Turkey (though he is now going to Turkey next week). News reports discussed a possible back problem caused by flying an ultralight plane beside some wild cranes in September. The Kremlin dismissed this, saying only that Mr Putin had pulled a muscle while exercising. In another political system, the story might have stopped there, but in Russia the mystery took on symbolic resonance.
在十月到十一月的大部分時間里，普京都在莫斯科外的Novo-Ogaryovo的住所辦公，很少去克林姆宮，并且取消了去保加利亞，印度和土耳其（雖然下星期他就將出訪土耳其）的訪問行程。新聞報道討論總統可能是因為9月乘坐的輕型飛機在一些野生鶴旁邊飛行而使背部出了毛病。克里姆林宮拒絕這種說法，說普京總統只不過是在鍛煉的時候拉傷了肌肉。在另外一種政治制度下，故事可能就到此為止了。但是在俄羅斯這個神秘事件卻有了象征意義。
Over the years, Mr Putin has played on traditional Russian deference to the leader while relying on manipulation of the media. The “charismatic aura” for Mr Putin, says Lev Gudkov of the Levada Centre polling group, has produced a system like “Byzantium, only on television.” The real point of the story about Mr Putin’s back was not the supposed ailment but the breaking of a taboo over discussing his health—and his future.
在這幾年里，普金一直依賴操控媒體來引導俄羅斯大眾臣服于他的領導。拉維達中心民意調查集團的勒夫古德科威說，普京頭上的“魅力光環”催生出一種類似于“電視里的拜占庭”的系統。其實普京事件真正的重點不是他到底得的什么病，而是打破了不能談論他身體狀況和未來的禁忌。
The biggest concern is Mr Putin’s isolation. His claim to Germany’s Angela Merkel that Pussy Riot members had hanged the effigy of a Jew in 2008 was bizarre and inaccurate (in fact, the band was protesting against anti-Semitism); either he was misleading her or he had himself been misled. Mr Putin has spent over a decade in power and Yevgenia Albats, editor of the liberal New Times, talks of the “typical syndrome of an ageing general secretary”.
最令人擔憂的是普京現在的孤立狀況。他曾經向德國的安吉拉默克爾宣稱，Pussy Riot樂隊的成員曾于2008年絞殺一個猶太人的雕像，這個宣稱既古怪又不準確（實際上這個樂隊抗議的正是反猶太主義）；要么就是普京在誤導默克爾，要么就是他自己也被誤導了。普京執政已經超過十年，對此，新時代雜志的編輯同時也是無黨派人士耶維格尼亞阿爾巴特表示，這是“年老的總統的典型癥狀”。
Compared with his early years in charge when he relied on economic aides like German Gref and Alexei Kudrin, Mr Putin has less faith in the counsel of those around him and more certainty in his own judgment. After a difficult year, he believes that he “owes his position to a hard-fought electoral victory, unlike his colleagues who have no mandate from the voters”, says Sergei Guriev of the New Economic School. On many issues, says one former adviser, Mr Putin “thinks he understands the situation, but in fact it can be quite incomprehensible for him”.
普京總統當權的早些年依賴其經濟助手比如格爾曼.格列夫和阿列克謝.庫德林，與那時相比，他現在對他周圍的忠告更加不信任而對自己的判斷更加確信。在經歷了艱難的一年之后，他相信他“把自己的地位歸功于通過艱苦奮戰取得的選舉勝利，不像他那些選民沒有授權的同事們”，新經濟學院的謝爾蓋·瓦西里連科說。一個前顧問說，普京總統在很多事情上“認為他了解情況，但是實際上情況對他來說可能很難以理解”。
Decision-making in the Kremlin appears to be on hold. Mr Putin has slowed down progress on the budget, on pensions and on privatisation. This may partly be a prudent move to sit out recent turmoil in global markets. But the danger of what Chris Weafer of Troika Dialog calls a “deliberate policy of inactivity” is that Mr Putin waits too long, acting only when the next political or financial crisis hits him.
克林姆宮的決策似乎要推遲了。普京總統放緩了預算、養老金和私有化的進展。部分原因是出于普京對近期全球市場混亂無序的謹慎考慮，不愿去淌這個渾水。但是克麗絲韋弗和特羅伊卡戴爾羅格稱此舉十分危險，是一種“故意不作為的政策”，也就是說普京一直按兵不動，直到下一次政治或金融危機出現時再采取對策。
As for the campaign against corruption, it will go only so far. Corruption is a pillar of Putin-era stability as much as a threat to it. Much of what could be called corruption has become formalised, if not legalised, through official tenders, court rulings and bank-approved loans. That makes it both more prevalent and amorphous—and harder to eliminate.
至于反腐斗爭，也只能到此為止了。腐敗既是普京政局穩定的一大支柱，也是一大威脅。被稱為腐敗的很多東西即使沒有合法化，也通過正式投標、法院裁決和銀行許可的貸款變得正常化了。這就導致貪污問題更加普遍，形式更加復雜，更難消除。
Alexei Venediktov of the Ekho Moskvy radio station likens the situation to “turbulence” in an aeroplane. The ruling class may know “in which direction and with which pilot” they are flying, he says; but the plane is shaking disconcertingly.
回聲電臺的阿列克謝·維涅季克托夫將此比作飛機遇到的“不穩定氣流”。在飛行時統治階層也許清楚“朝何處前進，和哪位飛行員一同協作”， 但是飛機正在令人不安地搖晃。翻譯：孫齊圣
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