評論
打印
Europe Russia’s president
歐洲 俄羅斯總統
Alone at the top
高處不勝寒
Vladimir Putin has initiated some high-profile battles against corruption. But to many he seems increasingly isolated and out of touch
弗拉基米爾·普京掀起了一場高調的反腐之戰。但在很多人看來，他似乎愈加孤立也愈加脫離群眾
STATE-RUN television is not usually the place to find news of corruption scandals involving officials close to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. Murky business dealings have never been a bar to government service. When high-level bureaucrats fall, they usually go quietly. But viewers have recently been treated to quite a spectacle on Channel One: evening broadcasts full of current and former ministers, their lovers, their expensive homes and millions in misappropriated funds.
俄羅斯國家電視臺并不經常報道總統弗拉基米爾·普京身邊官員的貪污丑聞?；疑灰讓τ谡諄碚f從來不是障礙。一旦有高級官僚倒臺，這些業務往來通常也就悄悄消失了。但是最近觀眾卻在第一頻道看到了這樣的壯觀場面：晚間新聞集中曝光了現任和前任的各位部長和他們的情婦，以及他們昂貴奢華的住宅和價值百億的貪污贓款。
This nascent anti-corruption campaign began in October with the dismissal of Anatoly Serdyukov as defence minister. He was fired after investigators linked a company spun off from the ministry to a $100m fraud. That a high-level official with ties to Mr Putin could be so publicly dumped was unprecedented. But since then, a $200m embezzlement case over a satellite-guidance system has threatened Mr Putin’s chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov. And on November 27th Rossiya-1 channel aired a documentary linking a former agriculture minister, Yelena Skrynnik, to a reported $1.2 billion fraud.
隨著國防部長謝爾久科夫的下臺，一場初具規模的反腐活動在十月份展開。在調查人員將隸屬國防部的一個公司和上億美元的詐騙案聯系起來之后，謝爾久科夫被解除職務。普金以如此公開的方式和這位高官斷絕了關系，這也是史上前所未有的。此后不久，一件關于衛星導航系統的涉案金額高達2億美元的挪用公款案讓普金的第一副總理伊萬諾夫的地位岌岌可危。11月27日，俄羅斯第一頻道又播報了一則和有前農業部長斯科尼科涉案的12億美元的詐騙案。
For Mr Putin, taking on graft in his own circle has several benefits. It is popular: between 2005 and 2012, corruption rose from tenth to third in the concerns of ordinary Russians. It is also an issue that unites his opponents. Mr Putin may dismiss democratic worries, but he sees himself as a popular leader, responsive to the national will. Legitimacy of a kind matters deeply.
對于普京來說，打擊他自己的小圈子里的貪污腐敗有幾大好處。它深得得民心：在2005至2012七年間，在公眾最擔心的問題中，腐敗問題從第十位上升至了第三位。反腐還可以幫助普京籠絡對手。普京可能對人們對民主問題的擔憂嗤之以鼻，但他自視為一位很受愛戴的領導人，對于國民愿望總是給予積極的回應。某種合法性是大有關系的。
Eight months after his election to a third term, Mr Putin’s support looks shaky. The polls give him some of his lowest approval ratings ever. So he feels “compelled to carry on a populist course, as if the elections were still ahead of him,” says Nikolay Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Centre. Fighting corruption also defangs the most resonant complaint of the opposition.
在他第三次當選總統的八個月后，普京的擁護者似乎有些動搖。民意調查將普金評為史上最不受歡迎的總統。所以，普京覺得“不得不像大選迫在眉睫那樣，實施一些民粹主義方針”， 莫斯科卡內基中心的尼古拉·彼得羅夫說。反腐也最能引起反對派的共鳴。
Launching corruption cases against his inner circle can also rein in excesses that make Mr Putin politically vulnerable and the state ineffectual. In his 12 years in power, bureaucratic corruption has gone “unpunished, unattended, and uncontrolled”, says Elena Panfilova of Transparency International, a lobby group. Worse, state employees now feel emboldened to siphon off resources even without sustaining social stability. Targeting a few high-profile officials can be a way to “introduce a certain level of fear,” Ms Panfilova notes.
針對普京集團的反腐還可以遏制一下官員們的過分行為，正是他們的過分行為使得普京在政治上變得脆弱，也導致整個國家效率低下。當他當政的12年里，官僚腐敗已經上升到了“不受懲處，不受看管，不受控制”的地步，來自游說團體透明國際的艾蓮娜潘菲洛娃這樣說道。更糟糕的是，公務員有恃無恐的吸取資源甚至不考慮維持社會穩定。潘菲洛娃指出把少數高官當作靶子是“讓人意識到一定程度的畏懼”的一種方式。
A disruptive public war on corruption also can create more infighting among political and business clans. That seems to be happening at Rostelecom, where two managers are being questioned about a $225m fraudulent loan from VTB, a state-run bank. Control over lucrative telecoms licences may be the real point. Yet an anti-corruption purge can also take on its own uncontrolled momentum, which could make Mr Putin weaker, not stronger.
一場破壞性的公開反腐戰爭還會造成更多政治和商業派別之間的爭斗。這種情況貌似正發生在俄羅斯電信運營商那里，兩名經理被懷疑從一家國有銀行VTB那里騙貸22500萬美金。對有利可圖的電信執照的控制可能才是真正的問題所在。然而反腐整肅本身也可能變得無法控制，這會使普京總統變得更軟弱而不是更強壯。翻譯：孫齊圣
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