評論
打印
If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
倘若“地軸傾斜”理論被觀察否定了
its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
它的支持者們就無路可退了
No easily implemented change could make that tilt
沒有什么信手拈來的變動能讓地軸的傾斜
cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
在兩個半球產生相同的季節
The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all progress.
對難以修改的解釋的探尋是所有進步之源
It's the basic regulating principle of the Enlightenment.
這是啟蒙運動的基本綱領
So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
在科學領域，有兩種錯誤阻礙進步
One is well known: untestable theories.
第一種眾所周知:無法驗證的空頭理論
But the more important one is explanationless theories.
但更重要的卻是不帶解釋的理論
Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue,
每當別人告訴你某個統計數據趨勢將會延續下去
but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account of what causes that trend,
而又不給你一個難以改動的好解釋，告訴你這趨勢為什么存在
you're being told a wizard did it.
他幾乎就是在說某個大仙做了個法就成這樣了
When you are told that carrots have human rights
當別人說胡蘿卜也是有人權的
because they share half our genes --
因為我們有一半基因胡蘿卜也有
but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
卻不說明相同基因的比重怎么引出人權--大仙又來了
When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
當有人宣布認知論中經久不息的“先天-后天”大辯論
has been settled because there is evidence
已經解決了，因為有證據說明
that a given percentage of our political opinions are genetically inherited,
某個百分比的政治主張是先天遺傳的
but they don't explain how genes cause opinions, they've settled nothing.
但他們卻不解釋基因怎么導致某些意見，它們就什么也沒解決。
They are saying that our opinions are caused by wizards,
他們只是說我們的主張是變來的
and presumably so are their own.
估計他們自己的也是變來的
That the truth consists of hard to vary assertions about reality
真理體現在對現實提出的無法輕易改動的論斷
is the most important fact about the physical world.
這是物質世界中最重要的一個事實
It's a fact that is, itself, unseen, yet impossible to vary. Thank you.
這一事實本身其實也是看不見的，但卻不可能被東改西改。謝謝大家。
