評(píng)論
打印
So, a big question that we're facing now and have been for quite a number of years now:
我們現(xiàn)在面臨一個(gè)大問(wèn)題，這個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)持續(xù)了很多年：
are we at risk of a nuclear attack?
我們是否處于遭受核襲擊的危險(xiǎn)之中呢？
Now, there's a bigger question that's probably actually more important than that,
現(xiàn)在，有一個(gè)更大的問(wèn)題，這個(gè)問(wèn)題可能比剛剛提到的那個(gè)問(wèn)題更重要
is the notion of permanently eliminating the possibility of a nuclear attack, eliminating the threat altogether.
那就是，我們能不能永久地消除核襲擊的可能性，能不能將這種威脅完全消除
And I would like to make a case to you that
我想給大家舉個(gè)例子
over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry, until this very moment,
從核武器被發(fā)明以來(lái)的這些年間，直到此時(shí)此刻
we've actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world that's characterized by two phases,
我們其實(shí)一直生活在一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的核世界，這可以分為兩個(gè)階段
which I'm going to go through with you right now.
我現(xiàn)在和大家一起來(lái)回顧一下
First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.
首先，我們從1945年開(kāi)始正式進(jìn)入核時(shí)代
The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons through the Manhattan Project,
美國(guó)通過(guò)曼哈頓計(jì)劃成功研制出了核武器
and the idea was very straightforward:
目的非常明確
we would use the power of the atom to end the atrocities and the horror of this unending World War II
我們將動(dòng)用核武器的力量來(lái)結(jié)束無(wú)休止的二戰(zhàn)所帶來(lái)的殘暴與恐懼
that we'd been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.
我們當(dāng)時(shí)被卷入了歐洲和太平洋戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)
And in 1945, we were the only nuclear power.
在1945年，我們是唯一的有核國(guó)家
We had a few nuclear weapons,
我們有一定數(shù)量的核武器
two of which we dropped on Japan, in Hiroshima, a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945,
其中一枚投在了日本廣島市，另一枚幾天之后扔在了長(zhǎng)崎，這些發(fā)生在1945年8月
killing about 250,000 people between those two.
這兩枚原子彈一共造成25萬(wàn)人死亡
And for a few years, we were the only nuclear power on Earth.
之后的一些年間，我們一直是地球上唯一的有核國(guó)家
But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power,
但是1949年，蘇聯(lián)認(rèn)為只有美國(guó)擁有核武器是一件無(wú)法接受的事情
and they began to match what the United States had developed.
他們開(kāi)始和美國(guó)一樣發(fā)展核武器
And from 1949 to 1985 was an extraordinary time of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal
從1949年到1985年，這是一個(gè)特殊時(shí)期，一個(gè)核武器逐步發(fā)展的時(shí)期
that no one could possibly have imagined back in the 1940s.
如果是在40年代沒(méi)有人可能會(huì)想到
So by 1985 -- each of those red bombs up here is equivalent of a thousands warheads --
到1985年的時(shí)候，地圖上每一個(gè)紅色炸彈標(biāo)志都代表著1000枚核彈頭
the world had 65,000 nuclear warheads,
整個(gè)世界一共有65000枚核彈頭
and seven members of something that came to be known as the "nuclear club."
有7個(gè)國(guó)家先后擁有了核武器成為了一個(gè)叫做“核俱樂(lè)部”組織的成員
And it was an extraordinary time,
這是一個(gè)特殊時(shí)期
and I am going to go through some of the mentality that we --
我一會(huì)兒將討論一下
that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.
美國(guó)人以及其他國(guó)家的人對(duì)此的思考
But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent of the nuclear weapons at any particular time since 1985 -- going forward, of course --
但我想先向大家指出自1985年以來(lái)的任何一個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)，全世界百分之九十五的
were part of the arsenals of the United States and the Soviet Union.
核武器被儲(chǔ)存在美國(guó)和蘇聯(lián)的軍火庫(kù)中
After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union,
從1985年到蘇聯(lián)解體的這段時(shí)間
we began to disarm from a nuclear point of view.
我們?cè)诤宋淦鬟@方面開(kāi)始削減軍備
We began to counter-proliferate,
我們開(kāi)始反核擴(kuò)散
and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world to about a total of 21,000.
我們?nèi)澜绲暮藦楊^數(shù)量減少到了大約21000枚
It's a very difficult number to deal with,
這是一個(gè)非常難理解的數(shù)目
because what we've done is we've quote unquote "decommissioned" some of the warheads.
因?yàn)槲覀兯龅闹皇鞘挂恍┖藦楊^“退役”了
They're still probably usable. They could be "re-commissioned,"
它們可能還可以使用，并且可以“再次服役"
but the way they count things, which is very complicated,
但是軍方用一種很復(fù)雜的技術(shù)方法統(tǒng)計(jì)得出結(jié)論：
we think we have about a third of the nuclear weapons we had before.
我們以為全世界只留有相比以前三分之一的核武器
But we also, in that period of time, added two more members to the nuclear club: Pakistan and North Korea.
但與此同時(shí)，我們的“核俱樂(lè)部”又新增了兩個(gè)成員，巴基斯坦和北朝鮮
So we stand today with a still fully armed nuclear arsenal among many countries around the world,
因此我們今天仍處于一個(gè)很多國(guó)家都擁有核武器的時(shí)期
but a very different set of circumstances.
但情況卻和以前非常不同
So I'm going to talk about a nuclear threat story in two chapters.
我接下來(lái)會(huì)分兩個(gè)時(shí)期討論關(guān)于核威脅的歷史
