評論
打印
Don't invest in Internet
不要投資互聯網
I can live all day inside the Internet. I can talk to my friends, listen to music, watch TV, trade stocks, play games, do work-all on the Internet. From 6 a.m. until 10 p.m. every day I can spend on the Internet and it would be a day well spent.
我可以整天在互聯網上生活。我可以跟朋友聊天、聽音樂、看電視、炒股票、玩游戲、工作——一切都在網上進行。每天從早6點到晚10點我都花在網上，這一天過得很不錯。
But run for the hills when it comes to advising clients to invest in the Internet.
但是當要建議客戶投資互聯網的時候，這就是自尋死路了。
Columnist and portfolio manager James Altucher explains to Simon Constable why Google, Facebook and other Internet plays are dead from an investment standpoint. Plus what stocks are hot in the rest of the economy.
專欄作家、投資經理詹姆斯阿爾托奇向西蒙康斯特布爾解釋為何Google、Facebook和其他網絡應用將由于一個投資觀點而死亡,以及來自其他經濟領域的股票很熱門的原因。
The days of infinite margins, 1,000% productivity gains, and growth of market throughout the universe are long over. Internet companies now should be treated, at best, like utility companies that get bought at about 10 times earnings and sold at 13 times earnings. Even then, I’m not sure I would give the Internet sector the same respect as the monopoly-protected utility sector.
擁有無限保證金,1000%生產率收益和全球市場擴張的日子已經夠長了?；ヂ摼W公司現在需要被買掉,最好就像公共事業公司那樣以大約10倍的收益買進再以13倍的收益賣出。盡管如此，我不確定我會給予互聯網行業同壟斷保護性公共事業公司同樣的重視。
Don’t just ask me. Ask the best. Nobody can figure out a business model.
別問我,問最懂這方面的人。沒有人能構建一個商業模式。
Time Warner would rather keep their legacy old-media businesses like People magazine than hold onto one of the biggest Internet companies out there, AOL. And News Corp. is shaking up its My Space business as it figures out its next steps (News Corp. owns Dow Jones, publisher of this newswire). Microsoft has spent billions on Internet strategy without a dime of profit. And even Google can’t seem to ftnd any other business model other than the one they stumbled into when they bought Applied Semantics in 2001 that had a little piece of software called AdSense. And the new guys: Twitter and Facebook are still scrambling for profits despite blistering usage growth.
時代華納更愿意保留他們的舊媒體業務的遺產比如《人物》雜志,而不是抓著最大的互聯網公司之一——美國在線不放。新聞集團正在整頓他的Myspace業務,使之按照設計的下一步走（新聞集團擁有道瓊斯,新聞專線的出版商）。微軟在互聯網戰略上已經花費 了數十億美元,卻沒有獲得一分贏利。即便是Google,除了他們在 2001年買下Applied Semantics公司時獲得的該公司擁有的一個小軟件AdSense讓他們無意中撞了大運之外，看起來也沒有找到其他商業模式。同時那些新手:Twitter和Facebook都還在尋求贏利,盡管其使用量在不斷飆升。
What about the nuts-and-bolts guys? Cisco, at 15 times earnings, trades in line with the S&P 500. Buy them when they start giving a steady dividend.
那么如何看待那些在基礎領域的家伙昵？比如Cisco,它有15倍的收益,對待它與對待標準普爾500指數的方式是一樣的。當他們開始派發穩定的紅利的時候就買吧。
Let’s face it. Electricity greatly improved our quality of life. But I'm not going to get excited about buying a basket of utility companies. Same for the Internet. Can’t live without it, but can’t live with it (in my portfolio).
讓我們面對現實吧。電在很大程度上改善了我們的生活質童。但是我不會對購買一堆公共事業公司感到興奮的。對于互聯網行業也是如此。（在我的投資組合中）沒它不行,光有它也不成。
So what do we do?
那么我們該怎么辦？
In this economy, it’s back to the basics. Regardless of how you feel about $1 trillion in stimulus (with more probably on the way), the best growth is going to come from the companies that help us spend that stimulus.
在現在的經濟狀況下，我們需要回歸基礎行業。無論你對1萬億美元經濟刺激的感受如何,最好的增長都將來自于那些幫助我們消化經濟刺激的公司。
Check out LNN, Lindsay Corporation, that does boring stuff like highway repair (they make those orange cones) and helps upgrade water infrastructure. With half of all hospital beds in the world filled by people with dirty water-related illnesses, this one is a good bet.
看看LNN、lindsay Corporation,做著諸如維修髙速公路的煩人工作(他們做那些橙色的圓錐 筒)并幫助升級水務設施。鑒于世界上一半的醫院床位被患有因臟水致病的人所占據,這是一筆好生意。
Or little known Colfax Corporation, CFX. At nine times forward earnings, this company is in the “fluid handling” business. Boring. But in a resource-starved world we need them to get oil quickly through the pipelines and into the refineries. And we can’t forget about ASTE, Astec Industries, which is like the “Amazon of Asphalt” and is a major player in highway repair (think stimulus again).
還有不知名的科爾法公司、CFX，它們都具有9倍的收益前景。他們從事“流體處理”業務,工作很煩人。但是在一個資源饑渴的世界,我們需要他們迅速地通過管道把石油輸入精煉廠。還有別忘 TASTE,Astec Industries,就像“瀝青的亞馬遜雨林”,它是高速公路維修的主力軍(再想想經濟 刺激)。
The exciting plays right now are the companies that are rebuilding the country along with the economy. Save the Internet for your iTunes downloads. But focus client portfolios on the future.
令人振奮的正是那些與經濟同步重建國家的公司。把那些網絡公司存起來用于你的iTune下載吧。但是客戶投資組合要著眼未來。
