Investing genius-Mrs. Watanabes
投資天才——渡邊太太
Nakako Ishiyama sits quietly in the living room of her apartment in the old Nihonbashi quarter of Tokyo, not far from its famous stone bridge—the point from which, in Edo times, all distances in Japan were measured. The neighboudiood was once part of the city’s financial district, and Ishiyama’s flat is strolling distance from the Bank of Japan, the venerable institution that controls the amount of yen in circulation and, via the interest rate it sets,the cost of money.
石山仲子靜靜地坐在公寓的客廳中,這里位于東京日本橋舊區,離著名的石板橋很近。江戶時期,曾以石板橋為中心測童過通往日本各地的距離。附近區域曾是城市金融區的一部分。石山仲子居住的公寓出門幾步遠就是令人肅然起敬的日本央行,它通過調節利率和幣值的手段達到控制流通日元的數量的目的。
Ishiyama serves green tea and autumn chestnut biscuits. She has been telling me about her investment history since around 2000~the time, not coincidentally, when the Bank of Japan first pushed interest rates down to within a hair’s breadth of zero. Largely without the knowledge of her husband, Ishiyama began investing the couple’s money,mainly in lots of around $ 50,000. And didn’t stop. Each ftmd in which she entrusted their retirement nest egg or toranoko, ‘tiger’s cub”, in Japanese- has a more elaborate name than the last. As she lists each one, she invariably adds as a suffix the words nantoka nantoka-“something or other” or "thingamajig," It is not altogether reassuring.
石山仲子端上一杯綠茶和一些秋栗酥。她向我講述了自2000年以來她投資的經歷。那時,日本央行首開先河將利率下調接近于零的水平,這并非偶然。在她的丈夫基本上不知情的情況下,她開始將夫婦倆攢下的大約5萬美元用于投資。從那時起,她的投資活動就沒停止過。對每一筆投資,她都用日語起了一個名字,比如“棺材本”、“虎崽”,名字一個比一個取得更用心。她列出每筆投資時,時不時在之后 加注上“某”、“之類的”這些后綴。總之,她自己心里也不是很有譜。
Shy and anxious (she refused to be photographed), 66-year-old Ishiyama does not look like someone who has played a role-however modest—in the drama that has engulfed the global financial system. Yet she and many of her peers have done exactly that. Japan’s housewives have acted as the guardians of the country’s vast household savings built up since its rise to prosperity after the devastation of war. At more than ¥ l,500,000bn (some $16,800bn),these savings are considered the world’s biggest pool of investable wealth. Most of it is stashed in ordinary Japanese bank accounts; a surprisingly large amount is kept at home in cash, in tansu savings, named for the traditional wooden cupboards in which people store their possessions. But from the early 2000$, the housewives—often referred to collectively as ”Mrs. Watanabe”, a common Japanese surname—began to hunt for higher returns.
今年66歲的石山仲子靦腆害羞(她不愿自己的照片登報),不管怎么謙虛,都根本不像一個在這場席卷全球金融體系的戲劇中扮演某種角色的人。但她和很多同樣的日本家庭主婦在這場危機中有自己的角色。她們是自日本戰后繁榮時期家庭積聚的龐大儲蓄的守護者。這筆儲蓄高達1500萬億日元(約合16.8萬億美元),被視為世界最大的投資財富源。大部分儲蓄被存在普通的日本銀行賬戶,還有很可觀的一筆現金被存放在家中的財產存儲的木柜中,這種傳統的保險柜在日本被稱為“tansu”。人們慣用日本最普通的姓氏稱呼家庭主婦們為“渡邊太太”。從本世紀初開始渡邊太太”們開始熱衷于高收益的投資。
Many were dissatisfied with the paltry interest rates banks were offering. The 0.02 percent return on a typical fixed-term deposit was so derisory that the annual payment on even substantial lifetime savings might come to a mere few hundred yen. “If you got a puncture on ttie way to the bank, you1 d be out of pocket,scoffs Ishiyama. She, like hundreds of tiiousands of others, found more appealing returns in foreign bonds and other overseas investments. "I was walking in tiie street and I saw a poster advertising a 5 percent interest rate. I got quite giddy with the idea,” she says, “I saw TV advertisements with everyone grinning and I thought: "I suppose it should be OK. ”
很多人對銀行提供的低利率不甚滿意。定期存款0.02%的回報率簡直低得可笑,一生的積蓄存起來每年也只能等到幾百日元的利息。石山仲子不無嘲笑地說:“如果你在去銀行的路上扎了輪胎,這點利息錢就剩不下了。”同成千上萬的日本婦女一樣,她也發現了外國債券和其他海外投資能夠帶來很高的回報。她說廣我走在街上時看到了一則廣告,推銷一種能提供5%利潤的投資產品,我馬上就動心了。我看到電視廣告上每個人都笑得那么燦爛,我當時就想‘它一定沒有問題’。”
It wasn’t long before the markets began to notice something was stirring. In the first half of 2003, individual Japanese investors bought 2,700bn yen of foreign bonds, easily a record. Brokers were delighted, partly because they made a killing on fees. But there was nervous chatter, too: if Japanese housewives opened the floodgates and sluiced money abroad, there could be a collapse in Japan’s enormous government bond market. Hitherto, the large sums of money trapped inside the country in savings had allowed the government to negotiate remarkably low rates of interest on the country’s massive foreign debt.
不久,市場開始注意到某些活躍的因素。據統計,僅2003年上半年,日本個人投資者共買入2.7萬億日元外國債券。那些經紀人非常高興,部分原因是他們大賺了一筆。有人焦慮地表示:如果日本的主婦們打開儲蓄的閘門,將資金投放到國外,那么本國龐大的政府債券市場有可能崩潰。截至目前,大量被限定在國內的儲蓄資金使政府有能力對國家大量的外債保持非常低的利率。
Professional traders began to study Mrs. Watanabe,s every move. She impressed them by holding her nerve whenever the yen teitqwrarily strengthened, using each occasion as an opportunity to buy more foreign assets at knockdown prices. The lines of Mrs. Watanabes outside banks and brokerages became a barometer of what might happen to the yen. While highly-paid foreign-exchange traders dithered, Mrs. Watanabe cashed in and began to acquire the reputation of an investing genius. Some professionals quietly began to do whatever Mrs. Watanabe was doing.
專業的貿易商開始研究“渡邊太太”們的每個舉動。令他們印象深刻的是,這些主婦們在日元暫時走強時總能咬緊牙關,把握每一次機會以低價購人更多的外國資產。在銀行和經紀業之外,'渡邊太太”們的舉動成為日元走勢的晴雨表。當高收益的外匯貿易公司猶豫不決時渡邊太太”們更像是投資天才,她們總能從中獲得利潤,以至于一些專業人士偷偷地跟隨她們傾向的投資。