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New Trade Protectionism
新貿易保護主義
Although Barack Obama alarmed free traders last year with protectionist-sounding pronouncements on the campaign trail, such as one about the need to renegotiate NAFTA, optimists among them dismissed this as mere posturing designed to placate restive trade unions. Yet a decision by the White House to impose punitive tariffs (35% for the first year, falling by five percentage points a year, to 25% in the third year) on Chinese-made pneumatic tyres now raises serious doubts about Mr Obama's commitment to free trade.
盡管去年奧巴馬以貿易保護者的口吻發表諸如需要再議北美自由協定類的聲明警告自由貿易商，但他們中的樂觀主義者將其僅僅看成是奧巴馬為了撫慰焦燥不安的工會而故作姿態地講話。然而，當前白宮決定對中國進口輪胎征收懲罰性關稅（第一年征收35%，第二年征收30%，第三年征收25%）使得人們嚴重置疑奧巴馬就自由貿易所作的承諾。
The duties are to be imposed on September 26th under a part of American trade law known as "Section 421". The American government argues that these tyres are being imported into America from China in "such increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause market disruption to domestic producers" of competing tyres.
(2009年)9月26日，美國將根據美國貿易法第“421號條款”施征懲罰性關稅。美國政府爭論說，這些從中國進口來的輪胎數量逐漸增加，這種情況將對國內有競爭力的輪胎生產商造成威脅和擾亂了市場。
America imported tyres worth $1.3 billion from China between January and the end of July this year. Under the terms of China's accession to the WTO in 2001，countries have the right to impose tariffs in response to a "surge in imports" from China. But there is always scope for dispute about what constitutes enough of an export surge to justify the use of tariffs, and China has already notified the WTO of its intention to file a case against America. It has also said that it is considering the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on American exports of car parts and chicken meat.
今年1月至7月底，美國從中國進口了價值13億美元的輪胎。根據2001年中國人世條款，國家有權因為“進口商品激增”向中國征收關稅。但是對怎樣才算作出口激增而可以征收懲罰性關稅并未有既定規章。中國已經將反擊美國的意愿告知世界貿易組織。中國表示正在考慮對美國出口的汽車零件和雞肉產品征收報復性關稅。
Poultry and tyres sound like small change in the context of the economic relationship between the two big economies. But Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former head of the IMF's China desk, argues that the American action and Chinese retaliation may presage "more protectionist measures to come from both sides". He notes that China could retaliate much more broadly than by raising a few tariffs: it could, for example, supplement its implicit export subsidies，including an undervalued exchange rate, with more explicit measures to support its export industries and block imports. This could "easily ratchet up into a broader trade war and inflict economic damage on both countries".
從這兩個大型經濟體國家之間的經濟關系來看，禽肉和輪胎事件好似微不足道。但是，康奈爾大學貿易政策學教授、國際貨幣基金組織中國區前負責人埃斯華·普拉薩德認為美國的行為和中國的報復行為可能預示“雙方將采取更多的保護措施”。他指出中國可以做出范圍更廣的報復行為，而不僅僅是提高一些關稅：例如，中國可以增補隱性出口補貼，包括對估值偏低的外匯率給予增補，以及采取明確措施支持出口工業并封鎖進口。中美兩國的行為“將很容易擴大貿易戰爭并對雙方國家造成經濟損害。”
The decision to use Section 421 is a disturbing one. John Veroneau, a lawyer and a former deputy trade representative, points out that this particular rule "doesn't require any finding of unfair trade practice by China. Chinese tyre exporters were not found to be doing anything wrong or illegal." This means that it is hard for the administration to pass off the decision as being about tougher enforcement of existing trade agreements, which has been the focus of Ron Kirk, the new American trade representative, since his appointment.
使用第421號條款的決定是個不明智的決定。約翰·韋羅克是名律師，之前擔任過貿易副代表，他指出這種特殊規則“不需要發現中國任何的不公正的貿易行為，中國輪胎出口商沒有做錯事或有非法行為。”這就意味著放棄這個現存的貿易協定中最嚴厲的條款，對美國政府是很難的，而這也正是美國新任貿易代表自任命以來一直關注的焦點。
Mr. Obama's decision also marks a clear break with recent American policy. His predecessor, George Bush, had four opportunities to take such a step against China, but in each case chose not to do so. Mr. Veroneau, who worked on those cases, argues that "based on their negotiations with the Clinton Administration on Section 421, China expected this tool to be used, if ever, only in the rarest and most exceptional of cases". So China's pique is understandable, as are worries that this could lead to a slew of other American industries demanding protection against competition from Chinese imports.
奧巴馬的決定標志著與近期的美國政策明顯決裂。上屆總統喬治·布什曾有4次針對中國的機會，但每次布什都選擇了放棄。韋羅諾先生處理過這些案件，他說“基于他們與克林頓政府就421條作出的協商，中國僅僅只希望在最罕見、最特殊的情況下運用該條款。”因此，中國的氣憤是可以理解的，中方擔心這將致使大量美國工業要求保護以對抗中國進口商品的競爭。
It appears that Mr. Obama is desperate to shore-up support from unions and the left of the Democratic Party for health-care reform-his most pressing domestic concem-and is prepared to risk repercussions on trade.
似乎奧巴馬急切地希望從工會和民主黨左派人士尋求醫改支持，醫改是他迫在眉睫的國內的首要問題，并準備以貿易問題上的反響作為籌碼。
