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全球經濟熱點新聞報道 第13期:中國在20國峰會里的角色

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China's Pull in G-20

中國在20國峰會里的角色
If only the rest of the world were run like China, the global financial crisis would be over much sooner. So the governor of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, implied recently. China, he said, had responded with "prompt,decisive and effective policy measures, demonstrating its superior system advantage when it comes to making vital policy decisions". At the G-20 summit in London on Thursday April 2nd, China's President Hu Jintao sees a chance for his country to take centre stage.
中國人民銀行行長周小川最近暗示道,如果世界其他國家像中國這樣運作,全球金融危機將很快成為過去。他表示,中國已經作出了“迅速、堅定和有效的政策回應,這顯示出當需要作出至關重要的決策時中國體制的優越性”。在本周四倫敦舉行的G20峰會上,中國主席胡錦濤看到了他的國家走上舞臺中心的機會。
Now, with the West in economic disarray, China's leaders see an opportunity if not to supplant American power, at least to start wielding a bit more of the clout that they feel they deserve given recent, rapid economic growth and the country's importance to a global recovery. Notwithstanding the enormous social stresses that China is facing at home as a result of rising unemployment, caused by an export slump, Chinese officials recently have assumed an increasingly self-confident tone when speaking to the rest of the world.
隨著日前西方經濟陷入混亂,中國領導人看到了一個機會。近來這個國家經濟的快速增長以及對于全球復蘇的重要性令他們感 到自己理應得到如此良機,即使不能撼動強大的美國,至少也能施加更多的影響。由于出口蕭條造成的失業率上升,中國國內正面臨著巨大的社會壓力,但即便如此,中國官員們越發向其他國家發出自信的聲音。
Mr. Zhou had some advice for Western governments. They should give powers to ministries of finance and central banks "to use extraordinary means to contain systemic risk". This, he said, would allow them to "act boldly and expeditiously without having to go through a lengthy or even painful approval process." China has avoided any such difficulties with its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package announced in November. Officials have provided only the barest of details of this. The rubber-stamp legislature has not been consulted.
周小川已經對西方政府提出了一些忠告——他們應當賦予財政部和央行權利以便“運用特殊手段抑制系統風險”。他認為,這將使得這些機構“大膽行動,并無須通過冗長甚至是痛苦的批準過程,迅速出擊”。中國2008年11月通過4萬億元人民幣(5860億美元)經濟刺激計劃時就避開了這類困難。官員們沒有過多透露該計劃細節,甚至忽視了橡皮圖章功能般的立法機關。

G-20.jpg

In another article, Mr. Zhou suggested the creation of a new international reserve currency, managed by the IMF, to replace the dollar. Western officials have given that a lukewarm response, but there has been greater interest in China's proposals for a restructuring of voting rights at the IMF to allow developing nations more say. With almost $2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, China is seen by Western countries as a big potential lender to the IMF, and thus to countries in need of financial rescue.

在另外一篇文章中,周小川提議建立一種由國際貨幣基金組織管理的新型國際儲備貨幣以取代美元。對此,西方官員反映平淡,但對中國提出要求國際貨幣基金組織重新規劃選舉權,讓發展中國家 得到更多話語權的建議產生了較大興趣。由于持有近2萬億美元外匯儲備,中國被西方國家視作國際貨幣基金組織和那些需要財政援助國家的潛在債主。
China, however, is still reluctant to stick its neck out far. It has not made public any detailed plans for IMF reform. Neither has it made explicit whether or how any lending by China would be conditional on such changes. In an article in the Times on March 27th, Wang Qishan, a deputy prime minister, said that it was "neither realistic nor fair to set the scale of contribution simply by the size of foreign-exchange reserves". But he did not offer a sum.
然而,中國仍不愿冒太大的風險。對于國際貨幣基金組織的改革,中國并沒有發表任何公開的細節。也沒有明確表示一旦國際貨幣基金組織同意它所提出的改革條件,它將是否或怎樣提供貸款。中國副總理王岐山發表于3月27日《泰晤士報》的文章指出:“僅通過外匯儲備規模來決定捐款 數量,這既不現實也不公平”。但他沒有提供中國捐款總數。
China remains wary of its own economic predicament. Although the goal remains to achieve 8% GDP growth this year, this would still be slow by the double-digit standards of much of this decade. The World Bank predicts 6.5% growth. Even Mr. Zhou sounded a note of caution. Asked whether China's economic slowdown had ended he told reporters on March 28th, during a visit to Colombia, that it was "still uncertain". The answer, he said, depended on whether the global financial crisis had yet "reached bottom".
中國仍對自己尷尬的經濟處境保持警惕。盡管今年該國仍預期達到8%的GDP增長,但相對于過去10年動輒兩位數的增長來說,這一速度并不快。世界銀行預計的增長數字為6.5%。即使連周小川也語出謹慎。3月28日訪問哥倫比亞期間,當他被問及中國的經濟下滑是否已經結束時,他對記者表示,“仍不明朗”。他認為,答案取決于全球金融危機是否巳經“觸底”。
As China Daily, a state-owned English-language newspaper, put it, "what China is going to do is be seen and be heard" at the G-20. President Hu will bask in the limelight of his first meeting with President Obama on the sidelines of the London summit and do little to brush off comment that it is really a "G-2" of China and America that counts most.
正如官方英文報紙《中國日報》所言,在G20峰會上,“中國要做的是被觀察和被傾聽”。于倫敦峰會期間在聚光燈下與奧巴馬總統的首次會晤將讓中國主席胡錦濤感到舒適,而對于那些中美兩國將成為事實上的“G2”的說法,他也可以不予理踩。

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