What an interesting and exciting thought. We may be only one of millions of advanced civilizations. Unfortunately, space being spacious, the average distance between any two of these civilizations is reckoned to be at least two hundred light-years, which is a great deal more than merely saying it makes it sound.
這種看法多么有意思,多么激動人心。我們也許只是幾百萬個高等文明社會中的一個。不幸的是,空間浩瀚,據測算,任何兩個文明社會之間的平均距離至少在200光年。為了讓你有個清楚的概念,光這么說還不行,還要作更多的解釋。
It means for a start that even if these beings know we are here and are somehow able to see us in their telescopes, they're watching light that left Earth two hundred years ago. So they're not seeing you and me. They're watching the French Revolution and Thomas Jefferson and people in silk stockings and powdered wigs—people who don't know what an atom is, or a gene, and who make their electricity by rubbing a rod of amber with a piece of fur and think that's quite a trick. Any message we receive from them is likely to begin "Dear Sire," and congratulate us on the handsomeness of our horses and our mastery of whale oil. Two hundred light-years is a distance so far beyond us as to be, well, just beyond us.
首先,這意味著,即使那些生物知道我們在這里,而且能從望遠鏡里看到我們,他們所看到的也只是200年以前離開地球的光。因此,他們看到的不是你和我。他們看到的是法國大革命、托馬斯·杰斐遜以及穿長絲襪、戴假發套的人--是不懂得什么是原子或什么是基因的人,是用一塊毛皮摩擦琥珀棒生電、認為這挺好玩的人。我們收到這些觀察者發來的電文,很可能以"親愛的大人"開頭,祝賀我們牽著駿馬,能夠熟練地使用鯨油。200光年是如此遙遠的距離,我們簡直無法想像。
So even if we are not really alone, in all practical terms we are. Carl Sagan calculated the number of probable planets in the universe at large at 10 billion trillion—a number vastly beyond imagining. But what is equally beyond imagining is the amount of space through which they are lightly scattered. "If we were randomly inserted into the universe," Sagan wrote, "the chances that you would be on or near a planet would be less than one in a billion trillion trillion." (That's 1033, or a one followed by thirty-three zeroes.) "Worlds are precious."
因此,即使我們其實并不孤單,實際上我們還是很孤單。卡爾·薩根推算,宇宙里有可能存在生命的行星多達100萬億億顆--這個數字遠遠超出我們的想像力。但是,同樣超出我們想像力的,是它們所散落的宇宙的范圍。"要是我們被隨意塞進宇宙,"薩根寫道,"你在一顆行星上或靠近一顆行星的可能性不足十億億億億分之一(即10-33)。世界是很寶貴的。"
Which is why perhaps it is good news that in February 1999 the International Astronomical Union ruled officially that Pluto is a planet. The universe is a big and lonely place. We can do with all the neighbors we can get.
因此,這也許是好消息:1999年2月,國際天文學聯合會正式裁定,冥王星是一顆行星。宇宙是個又大又寂寞的地方。我們能有多少個鄰居就要多少個鄰居。