評論
打印
Afghanistan's election
阿富汗大選
Joining forces
勢力加入
A new alliance forms just as fighting season begins
新的競選聯盟出現，但戰斗剛剛開始
Abdullah's the man
阿卜杜拉
AFGHANISTAN announced the results of the first round of its presidential election on May 15th. Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, gained 45% of the vote. Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank official, secured 31.6% and Zalmai Rassoul, another former foreign minister, got 11.4%. The election will now move to a run-off between Dr Abdullah and Mr Ghani, due on June 14th.
阿富汗于5月15日公布了總統大選首輪結果：前外長阿卜杜拉·阿卜杜拉贏得45%的支持率，前世界銀行官員阿什拉夫·賈尼獲得31.6%，另一位前外長扎爾邁·拉蘇爾獲得了11.4%。大選將于6月14日在阿卜杜拉與賈尼間決出勝者。
The manoeuvring for the second round had already begun before the announcement, as Mr Rassoul, aware he would finish third, threw his support behind Dr Abdullah on May 11th. The move boosted the former ophthalmologist's chances of becoming president. Dr Abdullah is of mixed Pushtun-Tajik ethnicity but is widely seen as Tajik, so the endorsement from Mr Rassoul, from the dominant Pushtuns, is valuable. Mr Ghani is also a Pushtun.
第二輪的競爭在首輪結果宣布之前業已打響。5月11日，當拉蘇爾自知將位列第三，便對阿卜杜拉予以聲援支持，此舉進一步提高這位前眼科醫生成為總統的可能。阿卜杜拉是普什圖-塔吉克混血，但一般認為他是塔吉克人，因此普什圖人拉蘇爾的支持對他來說甚為珍貴（阿國普什圖族為主）。賈尼也是普什圖人。
Now debate will focus on whether a run-off should take place at all. In the previous election in 2009, under international pressure, Dr Abdullah stood down after the first round, even though his opponent, Hamid Karzai, did not reach 50%. Mindful of the security risks and the costs of a run-off, and of the double-digit gap between them, some suggest Mr Ghani should do the same, but he has pledged to fight on.
目前的爭議集中在第二輪競爭是否有存在必要。上次09大選，盡管對手哈米德·卡爾扎伊并沒有達到50%支持率，但迫于國際壓力，阿卜杜拉還是在首輪之后就退出競選。出于對第二輪競選安全風險和成本的考慮，以及二者之前兩位數的差距，一些人認為賈尼也應當學習阿卜杜拉當年的做法。但賈尼稱要繼續競選。
A run-off will give the new president a mandate, but it will also let the Taliban reassert themselves. Having failed to disrupt the first round, they signalled their intentions on May 12th, launching a spring offensive with attacks across the country. The second round seems sure to be bloodier. The Taliban also promised to target the remaining foreign troops, as well as government institutions. No wonder that both Dr Abdullah and Mr Ghani have pledged to sign a security pact with America to allow 10,000 foreign soldiers to remain in Afghanistan after the majority leave by the end of the year.
第二輪選舉將產生新總統，但也將給塔利班有機會卷土重來。塔利班未能擾亂第一輪，遂聲稱將于5月12日在阿富汗全國發起春季攻勢。第二輪選舉注定將發生更多流血事件。塔利班稱尚未撤軍的外國軍隊和政府機關都將成為攻擊目標。難怪阿卜杜拉和賈尼都承諾與美國簽訂安全協議，以確保在駐阿部隊年底前大部分撤離的情況下在阿富汗維持10000人的軍隊規模。
