評論
打印
Sometimes, humans can see the patterns and we propose
有時 我們可以觀察到那些模式
something that seems to us logical
并且按照地震發生的方式
in terms of the way earthquakes behave,
按照我們的思維邏輯來提出建議
but sometimes, their patterns are too complicated
然而有時 地震的模式太過復雜
and the hope is that computers,
人們就只能希望借助計算機
using vast amounts of data,
利用大量的數據
and, er, combing the data for those patterns,
然后將數據和那些模式結合
can out-think us in that particular way.
代替我們計算出結果
But the patterns haven't always
然而 研究地震的模式
led to accurate predictions.
并不總能作出準確的預測
Nine years after Northridge,
在北嶺地震發生后9年
Keilis-Borok's team announced
凱列斯勃洛克小組宣布
that a major earthquake would strike near Palm Springs
在2004年9月5日 美國棕櫚泉附近
by September 5th, 2004.
將發生一次大地震
Once again,
再一次
the enigmatic Russian was putting his career on the line.
這神秘的俄國人賭上了他的整個職業生涯
But this time, nothing happened.
然而這一次 地震沒有發生
The team's work continues to be
小組的研究工作
a mixture of success and failure,
繼續徘徊于成功和失敗之間
but Keilis-Borok is confident
但是凱列斯勃洛克堅信
that he can improve his hit rate.
他的預測準確率可以提高
There is no such thing
做到百分之百準確
as 100% accuracy,
根本不可能
It's go without exist, but
那是無稽之談 但是
we believe the accuracy can be increased
我們認為預測的準確性
by a factor of at least five.
至少可以提高五個點
