The Arab uprising
阿拉伯世界的起義
Hope springs eternal
希望永不泯滅
The Arab Uprising: The Unfinished Revolutions of the New Middle East.By Marc Lynch.
阿拉伯世界的起義:未完結的新中東革命。馬克?里奇著。
THE Arab spring has, inevitably, spawned a gaggle of instant books.
轟轟烈烈的阿拉伯之春不可避免導致了大量實時書籍的涌現。
But it was much easier to make sense of the region’s upheavals a year ago, in the first flush of excitement, than it is today.
但是現在解釋這場大動亂爆發的合理之處,與一年前革命之火熊熊點燃之時相比困難多了。
With Egypt languishing under military rule, Libya groping for national unity,
現在,埃及在軍事統治下日趨衰弱,利比亞在黑暗中摸索國家統一的道路,
Syria’s body-count rising and only Tunisia witnessing a relatively smooth political transition, is there still a single unifying narrative?
敘利亞起義堆積了累累白骨,也僅僅只有突尼斯處于相對平穩的政治過渡期。在這種情形之下,闡述這場革命是否還是和當初的口吻相一致呢?
Marc Lynch, an American scholar and blogger with ties to the Obama administration, believes there is.
馬克?里奇認為是這樣的。他是一位美國學者并且為奧巴馬政府撰寫博客。
Although alive to the setbacks of the past year, he remains hopeful.
雖然認識到過去一年挫折重重,他仍然對阿拉伯世界的起義保持著樂觀的態度。
In “The Arab Uprising”, he argues that the old status quo in the Middle East has been shattered for good, and that the rest of us had better get used to this brave but baffling new world.
在《阿拉伯世界的起義》一書中,他認為中東世界陳腐現狀的大洗牌是一件好事,余下的人們應接受這個充滿勇氣又令人困惑的新世界。
To explain today’s events, he goes back to the 1950s, when the revolution of Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt set Arab pulses racing.
為了解釋本次事件,馬克?里奇回顧了上世紀50年代由迦瑪爾?阿卜杜爾?納賽爾領導的埃及革命,此次革命曾掀起阿拉伯世界如火如荼的革命浪潮。
But that first Arab spring died in 1967, in Israel’s humiliating defeat of the Arab armies in the six-day war—a useful warning for today’s revolutionaries that success is not preordained.
然而,首次的阿拉伯之春于1967年阿拉伯聯軍被以色列恥辱性的擊敗而宣告結束。這次“六日戰爭”對于今天的革命者們無疑是一個有益的警醒:勝利絕非上天注定。
Today’s Arab societies have some of the same objectives—to achieve dignity and freedom, to break with Western tutelage—but their populations are bigger,
今天在阿拉伯社會同樣存在著一些相同的期望,那就是要爭取尊嚴和自由、擺脫西方世界的管制。但是較之當初,他們已擁有了更加龐大的人口基礎,
they are readier to challenge autocratic rulers and, thanks to satellite television, Facebook and Twitter, they are more intimately connected with one another and with the world.
更加樂意于向獨裁統治者發出挑戰。而衛星電視,facebook和twitter等現代信息傳播工具也使他們能夠與彼此、與世界保持更緊密的聯系。
Mr Lynch, who made his name with his 2006 book, “Voices of the New Arab Public”, understands what makes Arab opinion tick.
2006年出版的《新阿拉伯民眾的呼聲》一書使馬克?里奇名聲大噪,他明白是什么導致了阿拉伯人民的想法。
His new book sets out, clearly and forthrightly, to dispel Western (and especially American) illusions about the nature of change in the Arab world.
此次新書的出版,清楚而直截了當地打破了西方(尤其是美國)對于阿拉伯世界變革的本質所抱有的錯誤幻想。
He does not accept, for instance, that the successes of the Islamists in recent elections in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco are cause for alarm.
舉例來說,在近期突尼斯、埃及和摩洛哥的選舉中伊斯蘭教主義者大獲勝利,但里奇并不認為這值得擔憂。
It is inevitable, he contends, that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood will benefit from an opening-up of political space, and their democratic pretensions should be put to the test.
他稱,類似穆斯林兄弟會的組織從開放的政治角逐中獲得優勢,這是不可避免地;他們的民主主張也應該受到檢驗。
Mr Lynch also thinks the uprisings, by empowering Arab publics, have made the Palestinian issue more important. He supported military intervention in Libya, but opposes it in Syria.
他同時認為,由阿拉伯民眾發起的起義也使解決巴基斯坦問題變得更為緊迫。他此前支持在利比亞的軍事干涉活動,但此次反對對敘利亞進行軍事干涉。
His account is especially useful when it comes to the regional fallout. He sees Turkey and Qatar, which have embraced the new mood, as winners; Israel and Iran as sullen spectators.
特別在涉及到地區影響的問題時,他的解釋尤為合理。對于接受了新潮流的土耳其和卡塔爾,他將其視為贏家;而以色列和伊朗則是陰郁的旁觀者。
As for America, Mr Lynch thinks Barack Obama has got some big things right: the president has understood,
至于美國,里奇認為奧巴馬在一些重大問題上站對了位置:
in particular, as his critics frequently have not, that these are home-grown uprisings, neither needing nor welcoming American leadership.
即他認識到這是阿拉伯世界內部的動亂,既不需要也不歡迎美國的領導,而奧巴馬的批評者們屢屢忽視這一點。
But Mr Lynch faults Mr Obama for his failure to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, to criticise more firmly the suppression of Bahrain’s uprising or to develop a more effective public diplomacy.
但里奇同時也指責奧巴馬沒能成功推動巴以和平進程,并更加堅決地批評了對巴林地區動亂的鎮壓或是開展更有效的公共外交。
Is Mr Lynch right in declaring the old status quo beyond recall? This may be too rosy.
是否像里奇認為的那樣,阿拉伯世界陳腐的面貌經一去不返 ?這樣說未免過于樂觀了。
But of all the books on the extraordinary events of the past 15 months, this is one of the most illuminating and, for policymakers, the most challenging.
但是在所有介紹過去1年零3個月 阿拉伯世界變革的書里面,這本書是最富于啟發的,對于政策制定者來說也是最富有挑戰意味的。