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即便最樂觀的半導體研究者都說，以硅為原料的計算機芯片或許最多還能存在１５年左右。此后，要在這些晶片上再加進任何電路都是不可能的了：因為晶片越來越小，晶片驅動的計算機也越來越小，越來越智能化。
The first nano1) circuit2)
IBM makes the tiniest computer part ever.
Even the most optimistic semiconductor3) researchers say that silicon－based computer chips may only have １５years or so left in them．
After that，it will be impossible to fit any more circuits onto these increasingly minute wafers to power inexorably4) smaller and smarter computers．Consequently，researchers are determined to figure out how to make complex microprocessors out of other materials．IBM made a significant breakthrough in August when physicists at its Thomas J．Watson Research Center，built the world’s first logic circuit out of a single long carbon molecule called a nanotube．Though the first laptop with nanotubes inside is still a long way off，the IBM invention“was a critical step，”says Phaedon Avouris，a member of the group that created the circuit．
As pliant as silicon5) has been over the last half－century，carbon nanotubes have some significant advantages．They’re as small as a semiconductor can get，so engineers will be able to pack trillions6) of them onto a single chip．And since they’re thin and long，like a garden hose，electrons are funneled straight through the circuit ――dramatically cutting down resistance．That results in less heat and less power dissipation than occurs with silicon．
But enormous technical problems remain．For one thing，even today’s average desktop computer would require at least a few million of these circuits，and there are no known methods for producing large numbers of them quickly and efficiently．Equally important is the challenge of connecting a series of individual and disparate logic circuits into microprocessors7)．And while computers run on three different types of logic circuits ――called And，Not，and Or gates ――IBM’s Not gate is the only type that has yet been created from carbon nanotubes．
The IBM advance is a good start；now engineers have a little more than another decade to finish the job．
