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The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.
在近期（最近幾周和數月內）一系列信號亮起后，美國經濟陷入衰退的可能性正在上升。
That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.
美國羅森伯格研究公司總裁大衛·羅森伯格在8月30日發布的一份報告中匯編了一份衰退指標清單。
"What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.
他提出：“最準確的衰退指標是什么？這是一個很難回答的問題——為什么不避開這個問題，看看所有這些指標呢？”
According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn.
羅森伯格表示，在歷史上，一些令人擔憂的信號只有在經濟即將陷入衰退時才會出現。
"The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格稱：“‘指標的指標’預示著經濟衰退。”
Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
羅森伯格編制的20個衰退指標中，有9個已經觸發。
Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others.
被觸發的衰退指標包括薩姆規則、先行指數和倒掛的收益率曲線等。
"Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格說：“目前，我們追蹤的經濟衰退指標中有45%已經觸發。自1999年以來，從來沒有出現這種情況而不發生衰退的。”
The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
自2022年以來，預示美國經濟陷入衰退的信號數量一直都在穩步上升，當時只有10%被觸發。2023年和2024年上半年，這一比例上升到了25%左右。
But since then, the recession warnings have been growing.
而自那以后，關于美國經濟衰退的警告越來越多。
"Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said.
羅森伯格說：“有時更多就是更多，這就是一個很好的例證。觀察不同經濟部門的衰退閾值可以清楚地看出，自2024年中期以來，一些事情一直在發生變化——經濟衰退可能真的要來了。”
編輯：董靜
審校：陳丹妮 萬月英
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