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After 11 consecutive aggressive rate hikes by the Fed from March 2022 to July 2023, the target range for the US federal funds rate has risen to between 5.25 percent and 5.5 percent. Radhika Desai, visiting professor at the London School of Economics, says high interest rates will suppress market vitality and trigger crises. US interest rates have now reached a high level that resembles that of the 2008 subprime crisis, and "the recession is essentially imminent."
在2022年3月至2023年7月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)連續(xù)11次大幅加息后，美國(guó)聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間已升至5.25%至5.5%之間。倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院客座教授拉荻卡·德賽表示，高利率將抑制市場(chǎng)活力并引發(fā)危機(jī)。目前美國(guó)利率已達(dá)2008年次貸危機(jī)時(shí)的高位，“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退迫在眉睫”。
The US economy is now showing signs of slowing. The July jobs report was softer than expected, with the unemployment rate rising for the fourth straight month — sparking a market sell-off and heightening fears of an impending recession.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在顯示出放緩的跡象。7月份就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)低于預(yù)期，失業(yè)率連續(xù)第四個(gè)月上升，引發(fā)了股市拋售，加劇了人們對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來的擔(dān)憂。
In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35%. “US news hints at a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding,” said Bruce Kasman, Chief Global Economist at J.P. Morgan.
鑒于最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，摩根大通研究部將2024年底之前美國(guó)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性提高到35%。摩根大通首席全球經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家布魯斯·卡斯曼表示：“美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)信息暗示，勞動(dòng)力需求的疲軟程度高于預(yù)期，并有裁員的早期跡象。
英文來源：CGTN, J.P. Morgan
編輯：董靜
審校：陳丹妮 齊磊
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