Financial assets across the world have taken a beating since the start of the year. Policymakers in emerging markets already know the feeling. Since the long boom in middle-income economies came to an end two or three years ago and waves of turbulence rocked their asset markets, central banks and finance ministries have been trying to work out what to do.
自今年開始以來,全球金融資產(chǎn)受到了重創(chuàng)。新興市場(chǎng)的政策制定者此前就已體會(huì)到這種感覺。自從兩三年前中等收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體的長(zhǎng)期繁榮走向終結(jié)、其資本市場(chǎng)受到多輪動(dòng)蕩沖擊以來,這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的央行和財(cái)長(zhǎng)一直在試圖想出應(yīng)對(duì)之策。
Investors still too often treat emerging economies as though they were an undifferentiated mass. In reality some have more options than others, depending on how policymakers prepared for the inevitable tightening of external financial conditions.
太多時(shí)候,投資者仍將各新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體視為互無差別的一個(gè)群體。事實(shí)上,其中一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨的選擇比其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體多一些,具體要看各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政策制定者為不可避免的外部資金狀況收緊做準(zhǔn)備的情況如何。
One of the more original contributions to the debate arrived this week from Agustín Carstens, the well-regarded governor of the Banco de Mexico. He suggested central banks look to intervene in bond markets to prevent a credit crunch. The withdrawal of foreign capital has starved many emerging market sovereign debt markets of a ready supply of buyers.
受到業(yè)界敬重的墨西哥央行(Banco de México)行長(zhǎng)阿古斯丁慍斯滕斯(Agustín Carstens,上圖)本周為這場(chǎng)辯論貢獻(xiàn)了一個(gè)更具原創(chuàng)性的點(diǎn)子。他建議各央行尋求干預(yù)債券市場(chǎng),以阻止一場(chǎng)信貸緊縮。外國(guó)資本的撤出,令許多新興市場(chǎng)主權(quán)債務(wù)市場(chǎng)缺乏現(xiàn)成的買方。
Mr Carstens stopped short of advocating full-blown quantitative easing on the model of the US Federal Reserve and other developed economy central banks. Instead, he suggested that central banks could swap long-dated bonds for short-dated, thus easing liquidity problems further down the yield curve and in effect acting as a market-maker of last resort.
卡斯滕斯終究沒有呼吁按照美國(guó)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)及其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體央行的模式、推行大規(guī)模量化寬松,而是建議各央行可以用短期債券交換長(zhǎng)期債券,從而以較低的收益率緩解流動(dòng)性問題,在實(shí)質(zhì)上扮演最后做市商的角色。
For a relatively stable, functioning economy like Mexico, such a move may make sense, though it carries substantial risks. Mr Carstens accepted that it would be a policy to which he would turn only reluctantly.
對(duì)于墨西哥這樣相對(duì)穩(wěn)定、運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說,這一舉措可能是合理的——盡管它可能會(huì)帶來很大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。卡斯滕斯承認(rèn),他只會(huì)在被逼無奈的情況下實(shí)施這一政策。
For the more typical emerging market where the fiscal solvency of the government is doubtful, the dangers of such a policy almost certainly outweigh the benefits. The problem arises from the aftermath of the flood of capital into emerging markets during the boom that followed the global financial crisis. The inflow was aided, ironically enough, by the QE practised by the Fed, which sent money around the world searching for higher yields. While emerging market governments often avoided racking up big debts themselves, many of their corporates went on a dollar-denominated borrowing spree that left economies vulnerable to currency depreciation.
對(duì)于政府財(cái)政償付能力令人懷疑的更典型的新興市場(chǎng),實(shí)施這種政策的危險(xiǎn)幾乎肯定超過了它帶來的好處。這其中的問題,來自在全球金融危機(jī)后的繁榮期大量涌入新興市場(chǎng)的資金的影響。足夠諷刺的是,當(dāng)初對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)的資金流入起到推波助瀾作用的正是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)施的量化寬松計(jì)劃,該計(jì)劃向全球各地輸送了大量尋求更高收益的資金。盡管新興市場(chǎng)政府本身大多會(huì)避免積累高額債務(wù),但新興市場(chǎng)的企業(yè)中卻有不少大肆借入了以美元計(jì)價(jià)的債務(wù),從而令新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體易于受到本國(guó)貨幣貶值的沖擊。
In this context, undertaking a policy that is likely to be seen as monetary loosening while the Fed is tightening is fraught with the danger of encouraging further devaluation, making the debt problem worse. This is particularly true for those economies like Brazil and South Africa, where high inflation and fiscal laxity have driven down their currencies and questioned the solvency of the government, let alone their corporates.
在這種局面下,在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊貨幣政策的同時(shí),實(shí)施一種可能會(huì)被視為貨幣寬松政策的舉措,極有可能促使本國(guó)貨幣進(jìn)一步貶值,從而令債務(wù)問題惡化。對(duì)于巴西和南非這類經(jīng)濟(jì)體尤為如此:在這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,高通脹和寬松的財(cái)政政策已壓低了本幣匯率,令就連政府的償債能力都受到質(zhì)疑,更不用說企業(yè)的了。
Ultimately, the credibility of monetary policy needs fiscal solidity as a backstop. The policy outlined by Mr Carstens makes sense only if it involves tiding markets over a bad patch that policymakers, and investors, can safely regard as temporary. That is not, sadly, the position in which many emerging markets find themselves.
歸根結(jié)底,貨幣政策的可信度需要財(cái)政實(shí)力做后盾。卡斯滕斯提出的政策建議,只有在一種情況下是合理的:當(dāng)市場(chǎng)面臨的糟糕狀況是政策制定者和投資者能夠有把握地認(rèn)定為臨時(shí)性的,這一政策不過是為了幫助市場(chǎng)渡過這一臨時(shí)難關(guān)。可悲的是,許多新興市場(chǎng)的處境并非如此。
It is hard to think of more than a small handful of countries where the idea of the central bank being market-maker of last resort is both practicable and reasonably safe. Emerging markets rode out the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 quite well relative to developed economies. They are unlikely to do so again this time.
央行充當(dāng)最后做市商的想法既具備可行性又比較安全的國(guó)家寥寥無幾。相對(duì)于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,新興市場(chǎng)生龍活虎地渡過了2008年至2009年的全球金融危機(jī)。這一次,它們不太可能再這樣。
Mr Carstens’s idea is an interesting intervention in the debate about the function of central banks in the emerging markets. Unfortunately, with the exception of himself, there appear to be few central bank governors for whom it is a wise proposition.
在這場(chǎng)關(guān)于新興市場(chǎng)央行功能的辯論中,卡斯滕斯提出的想法是一次有趣的參與。遺憾的是,除了對(duì)他自己而言,這個(gè)提議對(duì)其他幾乎所有央行行長(zhǎng)而言似乎都是不明智的。